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this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2025
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Yeah, it's very obviously a bubble, and I think the very fact that they can't deliver on infrastructure investments might be what causes the VCs to start pulling money.
It's a very obvious hard limit. Growth can't be delivered above that hard limit so the entire market needs to correct to at least that limit. That's the guaranteed minimum correction point, the rest of the issues will make it bigger.
Something we don't talk about much is that all of this investment money doesn't magically disappear when they sell these shares. They pull their investment out of AI and they put it into something else. What's the next likely thing that they put it all into? What is the second largest growth industry that isn't AI? Or do they cook up a whole new thing?
The last couple decades has been a series of techbro investment fads. Cryptocoin, NFTs, Metaverse, AI -- it's quite possible that a whole new fad takes its place.
Yeah that's certainly a possibility, but the elephant in the room is that material conditions continue to deteriorate, and that's translating into increasingly volatile situation. Something is gonna have to give eventually, and it's not gonna be pretty when that happens.