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this post was submitted on 18 Dec 2025
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it's not that brazil CAN'T trade oil with venezuela; it's that it will take more time than they have before the war starts to trade in this way.
That's why escorting the tankers is a bad idea. Delay the war by whatever means possible until the US Navy's interference, at least, can be rendered irrelavent.
i doubt that they get to decide when the us navy gets to interfere.
They gotta avoid a land-and-sea open-war first. Dock everything domestic and let the buyers' ships come to them. Refuse to sell to countries that don't protect even their own ships.
The US Navy is already interfering, and I never suggest they could stop it, but rendering it in-effective/irrelavent after a certain point seems achievable from where I sit. The US hasn't won a land-war since Korea, and North Korea only really had China's backing.
Venezuela is surrounded by countries which have every reason to help them end-run US interference, and whatever excuse the US brings to the table this time, its not coming with UN, NATO, or any sort of "multi-lateral"-backing. Again, that's what the US had in Iraq and Afghanistan, and those still endeded in failure.
There's no pretending its not about oil and territory this time.
Venezuela is indeed surrounded by countries that have ever reason to help the Venezuelans end-run with US interference; but each of those countries has their own oligarchy the the US has helped gain power within the last few years and are now neutral at best to Venezuela's plight.
Brazil and Colombia are the only exceptions and the right wing is expected to take control of it soon as well.