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this post was submitted on 19 Dec 2025
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Chapotraphouse
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Ground invasion is out of the question, a couple weeks of aerial bombardment, most likely
Chance of actually overthrowing Maduro, 0%
We said the same thing about Ukraine back in the day. It seems to me as though the people in charge are incredibly arrogant about what they can get away with. It's not like popularity or approval rating seems to matter a whole lot to them right now
Ukraine didn't require a massive amphibious operation, neither did Iraq for that matter, we can't compare apples and the equivalent of a prickly cactus, the geography of Venezuela is a deathtrap for ground forces coming in from the coast, without the Colombian border route open, the US has no chance of a viable ground based assault
And despite how easy it would be for Russia to turn Ukraine into Iraq, NATO still decided to use it for its geopolitical schemes. And I think the people in power now are even more deranged. I could see them launch a failed invasion - Pete Hegseth would probably love talking about boots on ground