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US war on Iran | Megathread for Week 11 of 2026
(lemmygrad.ml)
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท| BREAKING: Reuters confirms US army casualties are as many as 150 due to attacks from Iran.
This falls in line with claims made by the IRGC, which many thought were not true. Now we have somewhat of a confirmation.
@FotrosResistancee
Source -> https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/19696
my own estimate based on nothing but vibes is as many as 2000 dead, as many as 9000 wounded.
IRGC themselves said in the first 48 hours they estimated ~150 US troops dead. If we take that as a baseline and extrapolate over the duration + accounting for Iran tapering off missile launches, I get approximately 2000 which imo is much closer to the real toll than the US' 7.
(By which I mean don't take my napkin number as anything more than that lol, but if I had to pick between 2000 and 7 to make further guesses on, I'd pick 2000 every time)
That reminds me of an analysis that I found in an Iranian Telegram chat. Let me copy it here:
The Mathematical Methodology
To bridge the gap between the low official numbers and the high adversary claims, I have used the following logic:
spoiler
๐บ๐ธ My Estimate: US Casualties
Based on the correlation between the high-value targets struck ($1.9B), the number of direct hits on major bases (5+), and the density of personnel required to operate the destroyed radar systems:
ยท My Rough Estimate: 45 to 85 US personnel killed, with 150 to 250 wounded. ยท Reasoning: Operating a $1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 radar system requires a significant contingent of technicians and security personnel. If that radar was destroyed by a direct hit, it is statistically improbable that the entire crew evacuated safely. Furthermore, the strike on the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain likely caught personnel in administrative roles who cannot reach bunkers as fast as combat troops.
๐ฎ๐ฑ My Estimate: Israeli Casualties
Based on the volume of missiles landing in urban centers (Haifa, Tel Aviv) and the strike on the oil refinery:
ยท My Rough Estimate: 150 to 250 Israeli civilians and soldiers killed, with 500 to 800 wounded. ยท Reasoning: While the Iron Dome is highly effective, it is not 100%. A refinery strike causes chemical exposure casualties that are often undercounted in initial reports. Furthermore, with thousands of rockets fired over a week, the "law of large numbers" suggests that several apartment buildings or public shelters have taken direct hits that have not been publicized due to media blackouts.
๐ Comparative Breakdown
Here is how my personal assessment stacks up against the official figures and Iranian claims:
Assessment Type US Killed US Wounded Israeli Killed Official Figures 6 18 11+ My Mathematical Estimate 45โ85 150โ250 150โ250 Iranian Claims ~221 ~650 (Unclear)
โ ๏ธ The Statistical Anomaly
My estimate assumes that the $2 billion in destroyed equipment correlates with a higher human cost than currently admitted. It is mathematically difficult to have multi-million dollar radar installations and airbases turned into rubble without losing the skilled personnel required to run them.
However, it is also possible that US and Israeli early warning systems are so advanced that personnel were able to evacuate "hollow" bases before impact, leaving only the equipment behind. My estimate splits the difference between these two possibilities.
TL DR
Here is how the personal assessment stacks up against the official figures and Iranian claims:
Assessment Type
US Killed, US Wounded, Israeli Killed.
6, 18, 11+ -> (Official Figures).
45โ85, 150โ250, 150โ250 (My Mathematical Estimate).
~221, ~650, n/a (Iranian Claims)
FYI, this are 3 days old.
Comparative math is pretty good. I correctly estimated the IOF deaths in Gaza+Lebanon up to mid-2025 by just extrapolating published data (it was some 3000 dead if I'm not mistaken, then you times 3 for wounded). IOF maintained some abysmally low number like 150 for 3 years. Then shortly after my piece they admitted the number, and lo and behold, it was 3000. But it wasn't anything special lol, it was easy enough just using public resources like the haaretz article on the hospital casualties before censorship, and the resistance's own numbers extrapolated in time, which assumed steady operations every day.
I don't think its quite that high, I think the US would have a harder time hiding it if so. Though I do think it's a few hundred at least right now.
I expect nothing but a pack of lies from the U.S. government on this topic. The infowar means they have to lie to us or somehow distort it, like how Ukraine and Russia declared their dead after a few weeks but haven't given an update since 2022.
How hard of a time would we actually have hiding it? We could hold the bodies back for sure, don't have to make a show of sending them home. How tight is control over military personnel's communication channels in these kinds of situations?
I think the thing that confuses me the most about how more information hasn't gotten out is in regards to other soldiers blow8mg the whistle.
I don't put much trust in US storm troopers, but I expect a level of self preservation to Trump their ghoulish worship of empire. So I'm confused why none of them have tried leaking casualty rates in order to potentially effect the war effort.
Getting into their head is difficult enough already for me, but if I were on their shoes, and I was seeing my fellow imperial foot soldiers get easily evisrated by a Shahed drone, I'd be doing everything in my power to get myself out of the firing line. Disobedience seems like the best way to do that.
Perhaps my view of these guys is flawed though, or my understanding of how the US military apparatus would stifle that behavior is incomplete.
I'm just not sure they physically have access to any form of independent communication