Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.
Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.
All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.
However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
he doesn't knowLike for real has nobody told him that Iran's ability to close the Strait has nothing to with their navy and everything to do with the fact that it's tiny and they have a shit ton of missiles right next to it? Ansarallah does not have a navy and never did, yet the Bab el Mandeb Strait remained closed for like two years. Is this intentionally ridiculous? Does he even know he's lying?
Source: CNN
yes sir you're absolutely right sir, now send the carrier groups through it so that the tankers feel reassured
I assume he's lying to reassure the capital markets, but they aren't stupid enough to believe this
[remembers Elon] wait maybe they are
Some of "they" are stupid, some of "they" aren't, but this is mostly for the automated trading algos that pick up the news.
prompt-injecting the market manipulation bots, awesome
He who controls the Bloomberg terminal controls the pump-and-dump machine.
https://ianwrightsite.wordpress.com/2020/09/03/marx-on-capital-as-a-real-god-2/
Control theory really is a gateway drug
Unfortunately for him what matters isn't his opinion or even Iran's opinion, it's the insurance companies that insured these shippers. If they won't insure boats that cross, boats ain't gonna cross, regardless of anything else going on
Also, it has more to do with insurance than Iran's actual force projection.
The only way the US could maybe reopen the Strait is if they backstopped all insurance with direct government funding.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/
Waiting for the insurance companies to start selling insurance for when the "USA Insurance" department starts rejecting claims.
The tankers will need their doctors to get them pre-approval before crossing the strait
Americans got universal boatcare before universal healthcare
i don't see how that helps. it just means they take even more of a hit as now they're liable for a high value of goods that will have to be discarded after every ship is set on fire. also, i don't think tanker captains and crew are suicidal.
yeah. "can't boss, insurance" is the excuse, "I don't want to get my ass blown up" is the reason
Iran can keep the whole region locked down indefinitely for the price of one drone per airport per day and a couple for anybody who dips a toe into the strait
Right now, Iran doesn't have to set every ship on fire. The mere threat that they could has paralyzed the insurers.
If the insurance was backed by the US they could eat the risk for the sake of keeping shipping open. Iran would be forced to attack every ship, and that would be unsustainable. Then again, like I said, that only maybe reopens the Strait. It's like you said, crews would mutiny if they all knew any voyage could be their last.
They don’t have to attack every ship. Reducing traffic by 60-80% can still be disruptive. And worst comes to worst, mine the strait.
Cargo ships don't set sail without insurance. If the USA says straight up, "We'll insure your ship and cargo through the Straight while the war is ongoing," ships will get underway.
Now... what shipping company is going to be willing to risk the USA government turning around and saying, "Nah, we changed our mind. Ain't paying for shit," after their ships start sailing.
Also, they are large and slow. Much smaller munitions/drones can be deployed to hit the command deck, engines, or punch a hole at the water line that will limit the loss of life to the crew. (Pretty sure container ships have a surprisingly small number of crew compared to the size of the vessel.)
They literally did this. Still no takers. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/us-will-provide-insurance-for-ships-in-gulf-amid-iranian-attacks-trump
The headlines I saw these past two days were the US offering insurance and escorts, and no ships accepting the offer (so far?)
Yeah they did (backstopping insurance) this but no company is willing to take them up on the backstop offer, because they know that Iran can still blow their ship up and they don't wanna risk not getting paid by Trump.