154

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.


Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


top 50 comments
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[-] Alaskaball@hexbear.net 70 points 1 month ago

Featured post by user oliveoil on a request to residents in the agressor nations to attempt to assist in anti-war efforts through economic actions

Reply to this post with additional material on how to participate in the anti-war movement.

Site is starting to slow down for some. please upload videos to other sites then post the link here instead of directly embedding them into the site. If you have posted embedded videos to this page before, when you have the time, please edit your comments containing the videos and swap them out for off-site links.

Try to follow rule 6 a bit harder while the conflict is actively ongoing to keep the news mega clear and on topic.

General notice: do not use dd geopolitics as a source of information as it it ran by the fascist party ACP and its fascist collaborators.

[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 65 points 3 weeks ago

Stop posting AI slop on the newscomm. I don't care if you think it's instructive, funny, whatever. Take it elsewhere. Literally everywhere else on the internet welcomes this shit, but not here.

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[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 11 points 3 weeks ago
[-] glimmer_twin@hexbear.net 120 points 4 weeks ago

In the tradition of spending a trillion dollars over 20 years to replace the taliban with the taliban, the Americans have spent billions and destroyed their entire middle eastern project to replace Supreme Leader Khamenei with Supreme Leader Khamenei

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[-] THEPH0NECOMPANY@hexbear.net 114 points 1 month ago

Iranian response to the bombing of their desalination plant

The U.S. committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island. Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.

Attacking Iran's infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.

This is going to be a massive regional humanitarian disaster

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[-] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 113 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Trump: We have already figured out the Strait of Hormuz. We have knocked out their Navy. When you knock out the Navy, they can't do what they want to do.

he doesn't know chefs-kiss he-laughed

Like for real has nobody told him that Iran's ability to close the Strait has nothing to with their navy and everything to do with the fact that it's tiny and they have a shit ton of missiles right next to it? Ansarallah does not have a navy and never did, yet the Bab el Mandeb Strait remained closed for like two years. Is this intentionally ridiculous? Does he even know he's lying?

Source: CNN

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[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 109 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

officer-down

The NYPD mourns the loss of Police Officer Sorffly Davius, who passed away yesterday as a result of a medical episode while deployed to Kuwait in support of Operation Epic Fury.

Officer Davius served in the 42nd Infantry Division in the U.S. Army National Guard and rose to the rank of Major.

In 2014, he began his service with the NYPD where he was assigned to the 79th Precinct.

Today, and always, we keep his family in our thoughts and prayers.

May we never forget Officer Davius’ sacrifice and may his memory be a blessing.

"medical episode" lol

https://x.com/i/status/2030448509682413968

https://xcancel.com/i/status/2030448509682413968

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[-] sempersigh@hexbear.net 107 points 4 weeks ago
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[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 107 points 1 month ago

https://xcancel.com/tparsi/status/2029555364262228454

Similarities between Israel's bombing of Gaza and Tehran are growing stronger.

In both cases, it appears Israel is using AI without any human oversight.

For instance, Israel has bombed a park in Tehran called "Police park." It has nothing to do with the police.

But it appears AI identified it as a target since Israel is bombing all government related buildings.

No one in Israel brothered to check and find out that it is just a park.

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 104 points 1 month ago

It's raining oil now in Tehran this morning, after Israeli airstrikes on Iranian crude oil storage facilities.

Thread with multiple videos and photos

This is absolutely horrendous, I guess our generations version of the oil wells burning in the 1991 Gulf War (I'm not old enough to remember that, but I've seen the images).

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Russian Ambassador to UK Andrey Kelin: "We are not neutral. We support Iran."

https://x.com/IslanderWORLD/status/2030727240153968684

[-] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 102 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

All the global south nations are doing whatever they can to conserve energy. Bangladesh shut off its universities, Egypt, Pakistan and all doing the same. Thailand and Vietnam are promoting work from home.

All while the US hasn't adjusted their high consumption much.

Prices can be temporarily lowered by expectations (Trump's yap for example) but reality will hit soon.

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 100 points 1 month ago

https://xcancel.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/2030214631671619686

Some Israeli pilots fly to Iran 3 times a day, Ynet reports. That’s more than 10,000 km a day! Intensity of Israeli airstrikes is 4 times higher than it was in 2025 war, senior officer says.

Israeli F-15s are flying to Iran 3-4 times a day to maximize pace of strike; pilots are using energy pills under medical supervision to stay sharp.

@a_party_german@hexbear.net your mention of go-pills was very timely (https://hexbear.net/comment/6978001)

also, uh, darkly ironic given which military is the most famous for taking drugs to keep their troops going during war i-am-adolf-hitler

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[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 99 points 4 weeks ago

"Make our assassination attempt on Khamenei successful so we can restore hereditary monarchy in Iran."

monkey paw curls

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[-] glimmer_twin@hexbear.net 99 points 4 weeks ago

🇮🇱⚡️🌟 Head of the Zionist settlement "Margaliot" in the northern occupied territories:

We underestimated Hezbollah's capabilities.

Feed it to me raaaaaaaw

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[-] sisatici@hexbear.net 98 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

https://x.com/KasraAarabi/status/2029545539738521745

"The regime’s state tv (IRIB 3) has just spent the past 20 mins not talking about the U.S. or Israel, but how their goal is to “kill the idea of Dubai.” They claim Kuwait used to be like Dubai but it never recovered from the First Gulf War. They claim this is their goal in the UAE"

I can not say the source is reliable but I just love the absolute beast mode. I can not wait for live execution of labubu by Iran. KILL THE IDEA OF DUBAI. END THEIR ARROGANCE.

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[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 96 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

Russia's Lavrov meets with Arab ambassadors in Moscow who request that he pressure Iran to de-escalate.

Lavrov rejects their requests and points out that they have not condemned the bombing of the girls' school in Iran, and that Bahrain reportedly is seeking to introduce a resolution at the UNSC that condemns Iran's retaliation, but not Israel and the US for initiating the war.

Video: https://xcancel.com/tparsi/status/2030672645914538390

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[-] jackmaoist@hexbear.net 94 points 4 weeks ago

Sad day for Interim Ayatollah Jhuan Ali-Ghuaido

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[-] Assian_Candor@hexbear.net 94 points 1 month ago
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[-] oliveoil@hexbear.net 94 points 4 weeks ago

BTW if you go on the Israeli alert site, and select "Alert Sound" to be "Calm" you get a nice happy jingle every time Israel gets bombed.

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🇮🇷| Iran’s IRGC Aeroforce Commander:

“From now on, no missile with a warhead lighter than 1 ton will be launched (against Israel).

The frequency of launches, their intensity, and the scope of operations will increase significantly.”

@FotrosResistancee

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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 93 points 4 weeks ago

Brent Oil futures have officially touched $110. The world economy is actually cooked lmao. Take the bus folks

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[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 93 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

The region with more US military infrastructure than anywhere on the planet, and the US couldn't hold it for a week. paper-tiger

This is one for the history books.

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[-] Hermes@hexbear.net 92 points 4 weeks ago

Planet (a satellite imaging company) is adding an extra 10 days of delay to their images coming out of the mid-east, including Iran.

https://xcancel.com/DropSiteNews/status/2031188821069447493#m https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2031176768434905160#m

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 92 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Tucker Carlson flew to DC three times in an attempt to convince President Trump not to go to war with Iran.

"He's being shown polling that this war is a 90-10 win for him. I said, 'I don't know where that poll is coming from.' He's watching Fox News and he's getting fake polls."

[edit] Oh, FUCK. I just realized this. It IS a 90-10 issue. In Israel. Those are the polls they are showing him. Are they really going for the armageddon? Will they destroy the Al-Aqsa Mosque? The red heifers have reportedly been delivered to Israel years ago.

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[-] CoolerOpposide@hexbear.net 91 points 4 weeks ago

Crazy that through all of this many of us have forgotten that Maduro is just in Brooklyn right now

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[-] kleeon@hexbear.net 90 points 4 weeks ago

lmao brent crude is at 107 a barrel and rising. Last time this happened was summer 2022 elmofire

get some gas while you still can

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Larry Johnson's latest post provides evidence that Washington is lying about US casualties in the war:

K-Town refers to Kaiserslautern, a US Army base in Germany, which is located 13 miles east of the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. So what? Well, on March 4, 2026 the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center (LRMC) in Germany—the largest US Department of Defense hospital outside the United States and the primary overseas trauma/evacuation hub for injured service members from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa—sent out a memo announcing the temporary suspension of its labor and delivery services “until further notice.” The memo did not explicitly define the “primary objective,” but LRMC’s core role is treating combat- and training-related injuries. It also is the main medical evacuation point for wounded troops from ongoing operations.

A knowledgeable friend who supervised DOD’s Wounded Warrior Program during the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars and worked with personnel at the LRMC, learned today that there is a flood of casualties arriving at the hospital. The numbers are so large that the hospital could no longer continue to spend resources on birthing babies.

https://sonar21.com/the-trump-administration-is-lying-about-american-casualties-in-the-persian-gulf-region/

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 90 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

New video has appeared of the "Ghost of Kuwait" shooting down US Air Force F-15Es in his F/A-18C.

Video

Looks like well within visual range, almost deliberate. Insider Iranian agent in the Kuwaiti Air Force?

[-] Rojo27@hexbear.net 86 points 1 month ago

Sees the opportunity to do the funniest thing.

*Does the funniest thing

sicko-flipped

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[-] catonkatonk@hexbear.net 89 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

They're even starting to feel the revolutionary spirit in the Philippines: https://xcancel.com/Eng_china5/status/2030757549356753256

Soon "death to America" will become the anthem of the world.

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 89 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

It looks like Iran waited for the markets to open before launching bigger waves of missiles today.

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 89 points 4 weeks ago

The price of natural gas in the Baltic just jumped 543%.

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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 89 points 1 month ago

The UAE has apparently bombed the water desalination plant in Qeshm Island, Iran. Extremely stupid decision if true, Iran can wipe out Emirati desalination in hours.

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[-] Leegh@hexbear.net 89 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Iran's Assembly of Experts has apparently elected a new Supreme Leader, but they have yet to formally announce who it is.

Article snippet I found interesting below

According to Iranian media reports, the group of scholars had a minor disagreement over whether their final decision must follow an in-person meeting or instead be issued without adhering to this formality. Ayatollah ⁠Mohsen Heidari Alekasir, another member ⁠of the Assembly of Experts, said in a video released by Nournews on Sunday that an in-person meeting by the assembly ⁠for a final vote was not possible under the current conditions.

He said a ⁠candidate had been picked, based ⁠on Khamenei’s advice that Iran’s top leader should “be hated by the enemy” instead of praised by it.

“Even the ‌Great Satan [the US] has mentioned his name,” Heidari Alekasir said of the chosen successor, days after US President ‌Donald ‌Trump said the late supreme leader’s son, Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei, was an “unacceptable” choice for him.

If they really pick Khamenei's son to be the next Supreme Leader, which seems to be the most anticipated choice, I don't think I'll ever stop Dune posting about this conflict.

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[-] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 88 points 1 month ago

IRGC Spox: Iran strongly welcomes US’ willingness to escort oil tankers and the claim of the presence of US forces for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and in fact, the IRGC is waiting for their presence.

putin-wink hamas-red-triangle xi-gun

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[-] glimmer_twin@hexbear.net 88 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Zionists are currently getting their shit pushed in in a major way in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley - all over telegram there’s footage and reports of an airborne incursion getting blasted. Various rumours of a downed chopper, encircled paratroopers, hannibal doctrine activated. Israeli media is reporting a serious incident and that their forces suffered an ambush. There’s footage of AA fire and lots of gunfire between the two sides. Big firefight.

Edit: ground fighting seems to have stopped and signs indicate a serious victory for the resistance.

2nd edit: reports that attempt to extract from the encirclement failed

Edit III: reports the israeli “special forces” were falsely flagged as lebanese army

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 88 points 4 weeks ago

https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2030765322299408588

I guarantee you that every planner in the IDF with any influence on its strategic decisions is now hyper fixated on killing Ayatollah Khamenei Jr and thinks it's the silver bullet for eliminating Iran. Their belief in the power of assassinations is pathological. They can successfully assassinate their enemies repeatedly and fail to change the situation, and then fail to assassinate them and improve their position (Assad) and it'll do nothing to shake this idea. This is why if I were a resistance leader in the ME I'd want to be one of those Taliban style dudes who no one's even sure exists and the only known image of him is a passport photo from 1982 that half of analysts think is some other guy.

Also I'd get to live in a cave which is close to my preferred habitat of the tunnel I dug under my house

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[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 88 points 4 weeks ago

There are no E-6B or E-4B nuclear command and control aircraft in the Middle East. Nonsense rumour started by a Greek finance website. (Lots of questions on the latter).

Source, theintelfrog on X/Twitter, reliable flight tracker

There are however, now 3x B-52s at RAF Fairford in the UK, along with 8-9x B-1B bombers.

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[-] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 88 points 1 month ago

Speaking to Fox Business, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: The USA may lift sanctions against some Russian oil due to a temporary global shortage.

They really had no plan, huh...

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 88 points 1 month ago

It really is a miracle. Argentina burned through a $40bn IMF loan and a $20-$40bn US (unclear) US Treasury swap line in less than a year. This money was probably used to allow big foreign institutions to exit.

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[-] Socialism_Is_The_Alternative@hexbear.net 87 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

The oil futures market just opened. It is now trading at over $107. By comparison, on Friday evening, February 27th, when markets closed shortly before the start of Washington's latest aggression against Iran, it was trading at only $67. So we have already seen an increase of around $40 in only nine days!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/

US consumers are already starting to feel the pain at the pumps. Ironically, it is generally hitting Trump's supporters the hardest (as they tend to like driving larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles). But soon, everyone will feel pain, because diesel fuel powers the transportation industry...

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Just saw a video report indicating that Lebanese Hezbollah resistance forces killed Banaya, the son of the fascist Bezalel Smotrich:

https://x.com/TradingLara/status/2031181548746146259

He was apparently struck in a mortar strike and then died from his wounds.

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[-] invalidusernamelol@hexbear.net 86 points 1 month ago

The news mega constantly crashing the site is so fucking funny to me

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[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 86 points 4 weeks ago* (last edited 4 weeks ago)

Parts of Tel Aviv in the dark, the largest Israeli power plant (HTPP) is offline.

Many people are saying (we are hearing it more and more, frankly) that today was the biggest missile salvo on Israel yet. I guess Iran is sending a message as the world markets open. Some wild strike compilations are floating out there (they did seem like stuff I've never seen before), but in the age of AI (and fake news!), who knows...

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 86 points 4 weeks ago

https://xcancel.com/AryJeay/status/2030741849476874467

Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Ghalibaf: “The Americans did a heliborne operation in Iraq, but the Iraqi forces immediately took action and took some of them as prisoners.”

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[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 86 points 4 weeks ago

Prepare yourself for LIB hereditary dictatorship discourse on Iran, which will conveniently continue to leave out the GCC from such classification. IYKYK kim-peace

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[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 86 points 1 month ago

Ships in Gulf declare themselves Chinese to dodge attack

https://xcancel.com/FT/status/2029991330827415861

Even the ships are Chinamaxxing and are in a very Chinese time of their lives. xi

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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 86 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

https://xcancel.com/kath_krueger/status/2029646164467790241

The president also painted a picture of Iran's military capability being effectively dismantled. “They have no navy. They have no air force. They have no detection of air. It's all wiped out. Their radar is all wiped out. Their military is decimated,” Trump said. “All they have is guts.”

"All [Iran has] is guts" really isn't the insult Trump thinks it is

You look at these Viet Cong, they don't even have uniforms. No uniforms! Which is actually, because I was saying, that's disgraceful. Every one of them, braver than the bravest American, they know the terrain, and they care very much about Vietnam. And that's all they have!

tito-laugh

also, even if all the things he said were true, notice how he doesn't mentioned anything about missiles and drones, which is how the conflict is actually being fought

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this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
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