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A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.


Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.


Last week's thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 81 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

https://xcancel.com/kimhvik2/status/2030486951929745542

Iran launched a ballistic missile from a site in Isfahan that has been bombed several times by the US and likely Israel. This just shows how long this is going to take. Just look at Hezbollah aswell that many thought were completely destroyed.

Even after several strikes on the Isfahan missile base by the US the base still operates, why?
  1. The IRGC has wheel loaders, excavators and dump trucks on standby inside these large complexes that can be 100s of meters underground if you include the mountain on top. Debris from strikes on entrences will be removed after they get the 'all clear'.
  2. From the site in question, launches from 2024 and 2025 were noted at all the places shown on pic 3.
  3. The amount of launch platforms are obviously decreasing, but that doesn't mean launches will stop. These platform are easy to make 'nothing high tech about them' and the IRGC probably has places in some of the underground facilities where such platforms can be put together (Do not quote me on this because this is speculation from me)

https://xcancel.com/mumbocombo/status/2030496443237122535     https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/MCU%20Insights_16_5_Atashjameh.pdf

USMC case study that among other things discusses how Iran makes TELs in the underground missile bases

more

Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal—and specifically its TELs—rests on a foundation of low-cost design, localized production, and adaptability. These launchers are not complex, high-value assets that are dependent on foreign components or limited production lines; rather, they are largely constructed from commercial heavy truck and trailer platforms that are readily available within Iran’s domestic market. The country’s longstanding policy of self-reliance and industrial localization, developed in response to decades of sanctions, has resulted in a broad industrial capacity capable of manufacturing or modifying large numbers of such vehicles on short notice.

Therefore, assuming that targeting TELs during a conflict would permanently or even significantly diminish Iran’s missile-launch capacity is a miscalculation. While strikes can temporarily degrade operational readiness, the potential for replenishment and reconstruction of these systems is high due to their simple, cost-effective, and domestically sourced nature. Iran’s heavy truck industry, together with its experience in dual-use manufacturing and covert underground production facilities, provides the flexibility to rapidly replace or repurpose civilian vehicles into military launchers even under wartime conditions.

The events of the June 2025 conflict demonstrated this resilience. Although Israel claimed to have destroyed a substantial portion of Iran’s launchers, Iran’s underlying industrial and technical capability to rebuild such systems remained intact. Consequently, any strategic calculation that relies solely on the assumption that destroying a large number of TELs will decisively weaken Iran’s ballistic missile power is far from reality. The localized, low-cost, and easily reproducible nature of Iran’s launcher infrastructure ensures that its ballistic missile force remains a sustainable and recoverable component of its national defense posture, even in the face of sustained targeting campaigns.

it's really great how the US military has a whole class of people they pay specifically to analyze the enemy in a rational and unbiased manner and point out failings in US strategy, just to then totally ignore them and relegate them to writing in an obscure journal that is probably read by more twitter OSINTers than actual officers

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 23 points 1 week ago

The country’s longstanding policy of self-reliance and industrial localization, developed in response to decades of sanctions, has resulted in a broad industrial capacity capable of manufacturing or modifying large numbers of such vehicles on short notice.

Excuse me to all the younsgters, but I need to brush off an old meme...

JUCHE GANG juche JUCHE GANG juche-WPK JUCHE GANG kim-blood JUCHE GANG kim-jong-il JUCHE GANG kim-cool JUCHE GANG juche-rose JUCHE GANG kim-drip

[-] someone@hexbear.net 22 points 1 week ago

These platform are easy to make 'nothing high tech about them' and the IRGC probably has places in some of the underground facilities where such platforms can be put together (Do not quote me on this because this is speculation from me)

Given how extremely well-prepared Iran's military has been and how inflexible and predictable US/Israeli military doctrine is, I would be shocked if Iran's military didn't plan for exactly this situation.

[-] oliveoil@hexbear.net 14 points 1 week ago

Also they've been openly bragging that they all they need to do is bomb the entrances of the tunnels and bury them.

So they basically telegraphed their entire strategy.

this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
145 points (100.0% liked)

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