Image is one of many rallies in Iran in support of the government and the leadership.
short summary here, longish summary in spoiler tags below: Western standoff munition stockpiles now substantially depleted, therefore Western aircraft activity directly over Iran increasing (as is footage of attempted and actual hits against them) as the US attempts to transition more to using bombs dropped directly onto targets, Iran is increasingly in the driver's seat and controlling the conflict, world economy is fucked and yet could still get much worse very soon, if you require a car to live (especially if it's not electric) and cannot work from home then you have my sincere condolences
longish summary here
While I've seen several estimates on the current stockpiles of US and Zionist missiles and interceptors - somewhere in the realm of a third depleted, perhaps even up to half - it seems like we're reaching the point at which the US does not want to commit even more standoff munitions and is trying their luck against the Iranian air defense network directly.
We have already seen footage of Iran attempting to shoot down, and sometimes actually striking Western fifth generation planes like the F-35, and more footage along those lines is appearing for other plane models (with one side claiming that they evaded interception and the other claiming they hit it, etc etc, propaganda is everywhere, you know the drill). How much the US is willing to test their planes against Iranian air defense is a matter of debate. Strictly speaking, a few fighter jets and bombers shot down would be no catastrophic loss in the grand scheme of things, as the US has hundreds. However, the narrative of such a thing would be quite bad for the US - "You're telling me an OBLITERATED Iranian military can shoot down some of our most advanced equipment?? What are we gonna do against China?!" - and given Trump's deranged jingoistic rhetoric aimed to buoy markets, it's clear that he cares very deeply about narratives. Additionally, with Chinese exports of several critical metals to the US banned, the prospect of replacing these aircraft (and indeed the standoff munitions and the interceptors and the ground radars etc) is looking questionable.
All the while, Iran continues its strikes across the Middle East. Missile and drone strikes are reportedly on the uptick again, demonstrating that Iranian military capabilities have by no means been "destroyed" as Western propaganda claim, though it's impossible to sure there was ever a significant downtick due to Western censorship and outright fabrications. People around the world are gradually realizing the magnitude of the economic disaster that is occurring and may yet occur. Refineries and factories which deal with oil and gas directly are starting to slow down or stop production, and those who make products downstream of those are starting to follow them like dominoes. Outrage at gas station prices is rising, and many countries are considering limiting civilian driving and implementing work-from-home policies akin to the coronavirus pandemic. And now, threats are being made by Trump against both Kharg Island (where most Iranian oil is shipped from) and the Iranian electrical grid - which is highly decentralized and would require a prolonged bombing campaign to completely take out -and the promised Iranian reprisal would be apocalyptic to the Middle East. It would make oil prices rise to previously unfathomable heights as oil infrastructure turned off and remained off for months, perhaps years, and set in motion one of the world's greatest humanitarian catastrophes as the desalination necessary for tens of millions of people is shut down. It would also not be a symmetrical problem, as Iran does not rely on desalination for its water supply.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
The Marines are deploying more of their own aircraft for air support in the Middle East. Another 5x F-35Cs made their way today to RAF Lakenheath, and will push on further to the Middle East. That makes for a total of 10x Marine Corps F-35Cs headed that way in the last two days. The F-35C is the aircraft the Marines fly from land air bases and aircraft carriers, if integrated into their air wing. The USS Abraham Lincoln has 10-12x Marine F-35Cs as part of it's air wing, for example. The F-35B is the short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft the Marines fly from makeshift airfields and from the landing helicopter dock/assault ships. The USS Tripoli, also on it's way to the Middle East, usually has 6x F-35Bs. If the helicopter and tilt rotor aircraft depart, the USS Tripoli can turn into a mini aircraft carrier, with up to 20-25x F-35Bs. Since the USS Tripoli lacks a well deck and has larger hangars for aircraft, it often operates as a mini aircraft carrier, with around 20x F-35Bs. So the Marines could have 30x of their own F-35 aircraft for air support in the Middle East within the next few days.
Source, EISNspotter on twitter
Last time I posted this, I got a lot of questions about why the Marines want their
own aircraft for air support. In short, it dates back to historical reasons from WW2 where the Marines were abandoned by the Navy and Air Force in essence, fighting without air support and getting bombed by the Japanese a month, with around 25% of the 60 000 Marines in the Battle of Guadalcanal were killed or seriously injured, 12% of that 60 000 killed in action at the end of it all. Air support could only arrive after the US Marines captured and finished building Henderson Airfield on the island. That's one example.
If you want more information on that, this video will answer all your questions within a few minutes. If you continue watching past that, you'll learn a lot about the F-35 programme origins itself. I highly recommend watching the video. It'll dispell a lot of myths and rumours.
It really looks like the US may try sieze key islands in the Strait of Hormuz, and potentially other islands. The Marines are certainly bringing plenty of their own air support should it happen. I don't know if they'll actually do it though. If we go by the rule of expensive and extensive military movements=military action (which has been correct every single time during the Trump administration), it'll happen. But this is thousands of boots on the ground on Iranian islands, in a very vulnerable position, not just airstrikes or special forces raids as seen previously. It's a whole other step.
I said it a couple days ago, but Bandar Abbas and/or Qeshm or Larak make more sense than either trying to extract nuclear material from one of the nuclear facilities or trying to take Kharg. The former is a suicide mission, and the latter runs the risk of further constricting the global supply of oil, which the US wants to avoid. Bandar Abbas is where the vast majority of Iran's non-oil shipping happens, where their navy is HQed, has ports deep enough for aircraft carriers, is located at the narrowest part of the Gulf. As the US and Israel have shown, they have no qualms about attempting to cut off food to starve civilians.
I guess I could see the US taking one of those tiny islands closer to Dubai, like Abu Musa, as some sort of token victory.
Wouldn’t it make more sense that they would invade a port city with an airport runway and establish some kind of “green zone” that they could try to hold and use to control the strait? Or is that more impossible because of the ease with which Iran can deploy troops? It just seems like hitting up an island where everyone on it is a sitting duck wouldn’t accomplish anything at all… The UAE and Bahraine are like, nearly the same distance, and the US can’t even keep those positions safe now, or is the idea just to steal the oil and have it continue to flow from Kharg island- denying Iran any profit? (in which case, I would see no reason for Iran not to just blow their own infrastructure up in the event that the US were to succeed)
Before the US takes these islands or land bases (doctrine wise), they usually do shaping operations to blow up the runways to deny their use, then rebuild them later for their own use. They have a whole expeditionary unit of the air force dedicated to doing just that, rebuilding and opening air bases, 621st Contingency Response Wing. My guess is that the US would want to seize Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb to try extert control of the strait, and hand them over to the UAE later, at least that's the plan. Kharg island, they may try something there with airborne troops, they may not. Kharg island is talked about so much it could also be a diversion
Thank you, I didn’t know that and I always appreciate your analysis. There is so much to learn its sort of dizzying
I am sure Iran will be more than willing to hand over its sovereign land to the UAE- can’t see any potential issue with that. Guess its game over for the resistance
The Seabees also do this, and I believe @Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net tracked CAMBER flights out of Gulfport, MS, their East Coast base, to the Middle East a weak or two ago. They are also regularly embedded with MEUs on amphibious assault missions.
would any of these forces be of any use trying to un-evacuate existing US bases in the GCC area? It seems like US troops were preemptively withdrawn from the 5th fleet base. I don't know if it would make military sense with these assets, but "re-taking" GCC bases and actually digging in seems like it could be useful for force projection in the area, even if they had to operate while the strait is still closed.
You wouldn't send amphibious assault forces from the Marines, the 82nd airborne, SEALS (including DEVGRU/SEAL Team Six), 160th SOAR, Delta and Rangers to rebuild the bases in the Gulf. There have been movements at bases hosting all these units.
yeah I didn't think so. still it seems bizarre to me to be talking about taking new, more vulnerable/more logistically fraught land when there are existing US bases bottled up. those bases are going to get looted
What about other assets like attack helicopters and armor? Are they also being moved around? Do they even continue to operate Abrams?
No the Marines don't operate tanks anymore, this is all light infantry. The USS Tripoli may have a few attack helicopters and MV-22 Ospreys, but if it's operating as a mini aircraft carrier, their numbers will be small.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: