Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
No
People said they wouldn't last 6 months here at the start. Then Ukraine wouldn't last a year, then not two years. Then repeated assurances a new Russian offensive was coming in 2024, then 2025 that would collapse the front and Ukraine would have to surrender. People have been saying Ukraine would run out of man-power for years so excuse me if I don't believe it. There are shortages sure but this is a new age of warfare using drones operated by women in apartments in Kiev and the far west of the country which make it hard to advance so even if a Ukrainian position has only half its compliment of men it doesn't matter because the Russians are pinned by drones that will assassinate them without notice and few counters.
Truth is the lines are not moving much, Russian gains are slow and mostly empty area or small hamlets. Constant drone attacks have made troop movements very slow, very cautious on both sides and the Russians don't really have a comprehensive counter that enables them to get out of this trench warfare and either really break Ukrainian lines by killing enough of them and/or safely advance their own forces at any meaningfully significant pace.
There's no sign that Ukraine's lines will collapse. If anything they've adapted to Russian tactics that led to devastating early losses and are only getting stronger technologically and on tactics. At this rate of gain it will take Russia years more just to free the oblasts they legally claim and incorporated as Russian territory to say nothing of how they're going to move beyond that to forcing Ukraine to surrender by doing something like taking most of it industry, putting Kiev at threat, cutting them off from the black sea entirely, etc.
Ukraine isn't winning but they're not going to collapse and give Russia what they want anytime soon either. If the war ends soon it isn't because Ukraine lost or Russia won decisively on the battlefield its because Ukraine's backers decided to re-allocate too many resources elsewhere and told them to throw in the towel in doing so.
I will say I have paid very little attention to the overall Ukranian conflict other than the initial nazi belligerence and repeated Russian warnings that went unheeded.
I don’t think the Russians are that interested in pushing deeper into Ukraine. Bear with me on this: trying to seize control of more populous regions in Ukraine and pacify the nation would inevitably lead to terrorism, IEDs, entrenchment into Green Zones with the occasional mission into enemy territory. And now, with drones, not even the green zone would know peace. It would be Russia’s Iraq War.
They have to know this better than I do. What they can do is open a front, bleed the Americans and the Europeans dry; make a bunch of these politicians basically radioactive, and create a buffer zone between themselves and NATO. Sadly, your average European is fucking brainwashed. I’m in discord servers with European artists that think Russia is the big bad and they are willing to fight to the last Ukranian. Regardless of what Ukranian nazis did to antagonize the Russians.
Americans are getting tired of these wars. Trump rode in on a non-interventionist ticket (just like every single successful president). At some point, we’ll revolt, or a real one, will get the presidency and finally pull out. But Ukraine is not gonna last without American and European funding. Which means they are in a more precarious position than the Russians.