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submitted 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is "open" or "closed", as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.


I'm tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we'll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.

The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.

To attempt to summarize:

long summary

Against many people's expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.

The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it'll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.

Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it's not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.

Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.

These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we'll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It's still a Zionist Ceasefire ("you cease fire, we keep attacking"), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.

Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran's ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US's blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).

Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it'll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).

Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 72 points 4 days ago

https://archive.ph/2a4Rg

U.S. Ambassador Threatens Peru After Lima Delays F-16 Fighter Jet Deal

U.S. Ambassador to Peru Bernie Navarro issued a direct threat to the Peruvian government Friday, vowing Washington would use “all available tools” if it deems Lima is negotiating in bad faith over the suspension of a multi-billion-dollar F-16 fighter jet purchase.

more

Navarro, representing the Trump Administration, reacted sharply on the social media platform X after interim President José María Balcázar announced the final decision on the $3.5 billion fleet renewal would be deferred to the next government taking office July 28. Balcázar argued the financial commitment constituted excessive national debt for a transitional administration. “I will use all available tools to protect and promote the prosperity and security of our country,” Navarro posted.

The controversy stems from Peru’s plan to replace its aging fleet of French Mirage 2000 and Russian MIG-29 jets with 24 new aircraft. While Balcázar previously indicated a preference for the U.S.-made F-16 Block 70, he clarified Friday that no contract has been signed and no funds have been disbursed. The cost of the proposed acquisition exceeds the budget originally approved by the Peruvian Parliament. The negotiations, driven by former Prime Minister Ernesto Álvarez and Foreign Minister Hugo de Zela, are part of a broader deepening of U.S.-Peru defense ties. In February, De Zela announced Peru’s designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status conferring specific U.S. military assistance. The bilateral agenda also includes the construction of a $1.5 billion naval base in the port of Callao, to be built by U.S. military personnel and financed by the Peruvian state. Balcázar reiterated that with the presidential transition imminent, a decision of such fiscal magnitude should be left to an administration with a fresh electoral mandate and full democratic legitimacy.

[-] RobnHood@hexbear.net 50 points 4 days ago

If Sánchez wins, they should buy J-10C instead. They’d probably be like half the price, plus the canards look cool.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 43 points 4 days ago

the Americans actually specifically pulled a bunch of shit to prevent that from happening in Argentina (technically with the JF-17 rather than the J-10, but still a Chinese plane) and getting them to buy F-16s (that were supposed to go to Ukraine originally), https://hexbear.net/post/6148937/6504631

except this kind of scheme is kind of predicated on the Americans actually delivering some fucking planes - eventually, people are just going to start buying Chinese because there's literally nothing else on the market

[-] QinShiHuangsShlong@lemmy.ml 35 points 4 days ago

In terms of ranking by how cool the jets look I'm definitely biased but it 100% goes

  1. Russia (Have you seen literally anything sukhoi makes)
  2. China (J-20 my beloved)
  3. America/EU
  4. Everyone else
[-] RobnHood@hexbear.net 25 points 4 days ago

My personal favorite right now is the twin seat J-20 variant with the dark livery and white outline. But I gotta say I love a good flanker, especially in their baby blue liveries.

[-] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 18 points 4 days ago

I'm not a jet guy but the Saab JAS 39 Gripen is my favorite.

[-] QinShiHuangsShlong@lemmy.ml 20 points 4 days ago

So much potential I just personally can't get over the engine sticking out the way it does. If it protruded just slightly less or the wings were slightly longer it would be top tier in my book.

[-] hotcouchguy@hexbear.net 13 points 4 days ago

Looks like a bug w ovipositor

[-] invalidusernamelol@hexbear.net 11 points 4 days ago

It looks kinda like it's got a dingleberry

[-] Gucci_Minh@hexbear.net 18 points 4 days ago

The Su-27 and variants are just so sleek and curvy, definitely goated aesthetically

[-] QinShiHuangsShlong@lemmy.ml 15 points 4 days ago

Yeah I think my love of the sukhoi aesthetic stems from the J-11 really just the best line of jets aesthetically. Although I do enjoy the Su-47 and Su-57 and even the Su-34/32 as well.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 29 points 4 days ago

Peru will probably either just buy from Russia or France. Both General Velasco (1960s - 1970s) and Alberto Fujimori (1990s) bought a bunch of Soviet, Chinese and North Korean equipament, tanks and aircrafts. Velasco had plans to invade Chile to depose Pinochet and restore democracy there so he decided to buy a bunch of soviet equipament since both Peru and the Soviets were socialist states. Fujimori just bought stuff to use against civilians and guerrilas, he even started a war against Ecuador in 1995 to help his reelection plans.

[-] RobnHood@hexbear.net 17 points 4 days ago

Well what ever they end up buying, it should used be used to depose Nooba and restore democracy in Ecuador.

[-] TheSovietOnion@hexbear.net 42 points 4 days ago

They're not gonna deliver the planes anyway, so this is literally just stealing their money at gunpoint

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 28 points 4 days ago

America, famous for not delaying weapons deals

this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2026
173 points (100.0% liked)

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