174
submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is an illustration that I have made to show what each side means when they say that Hormuz is "open" or "closed", as various officials and analysts have created a lot of confusion with their statements, both intentionally and unintentionally.


I'm tentatively going back to the weekly thread format in the hopes that even if/when the conflict resumes, daily comment counts will keep us at or below ~3000 per week. If not, we'll just go back to the 3000 comment threshold being what triggers a new thread being created.

The events of the last two weeks have been the most unintelligible of at least the last four years, and on some days I took one look at the situation and decided to just not even bother and do something else until the next day.

To attempt to summarize:

long summary

Against many people's expectations, including my own, the ceasefire was not immediately scuttled upon its inception despite violations (predominantly against Lebanon), which indicates to me that both the US and Iran wanted a ceasefire more than they wanted to continue firing, at least for two weeks. For both sides, it represented an opportunity to reorganize, rebuild, and restrategize going forward.

The US has continued its rapid flurry of airlifting to and from the Middle East, and while what exactly they have brought and intend to do next is a mystery, airlifting is a very inefficient method of transferring resources en masse, meaning that any kind of massive ground invasion is still many months away (though I still strongly doubt it'll ever happen). Attempting to do more raids like the failed Istafan raid seems like the most likely option, as well as perhaps some disastrous attempts to hold Gulf islands.

Meanwhile, Iran has been excavating the entrances to their missile cities and has rapidly rebuilt bridges and railway lines. While the rate of reconstruction has shocked some observers, people like us who have paid abnormally high attention to the Ukraine War will not be surprised - infrastructure is very difficult to take out for any meaningful length of time even when it's not purposefully decentralized. It also seems extremely likely that Iran has continued to receive shipments of resources and weapons from Russia and China, though what exactly is being supplied is not concretely known.

Iran sent a highly qualified team to Pakistan to negotiate, and the US sent, among others, Vice President Vance too. After a marathon ~20 hour session, no deal was struck, and both sides left Pakistan (the Iranian team taking many precautions to not get shot down). While the nuclear issue seemed to be the major sticking point, it is very difficult to see the US - and Trump in particular - formally agreeing to a tollbooth in Hormuz or the retreat from their Middle Eastern bases even if they have already effectively retreated from most of them.

These negotiations took place in an environment of constant violations of the ceasefire on the Lebanon front. Iran initially tied their attendance of talks to a total cessation of conflict in Lebanon, though ultimately decided to go to Islamabad without a de facto ceasefire but with some sort of guarantee that we'll go tell Netanyahu to stop firing for a while. A few days after the negotiations failed, a more comprehensive ceasefire was actually achieved in Lebanon. It's still a Zionist Ceasefire ("you cease fire, we keep attacking"), and the Zionists committed several massive civilian atrocities just before the ceasefire began. After the ceasefire began, violations have, to my knowledge, been remarkably few up to the time of me writing this.

Shortly after the failure of negotiations, the US began their own blockade of Iran's ports. As the US Navy cannot get within a few hundred miles of even the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is taking place at some line in the Sea of Oman, where Iranian ships will be intercepted. The confusion caused by this situation has been incredible, with a few days of people tracking Iranian tankers closely, concluding that if they had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, they had successfully ran the blockade (they had not). After about a week of this de jure blockade, it was indeed confirmed to be real when the US captured its first Iranian oil tanker. This prompted Iran to fully close the Strait of Hormuz (see the megathread image), and there are reports of, as always, at best questionable veracity that in response to the US's blockade of their blockade, Iran possibly intends to 1) totally blockade Gulf State ports in the Persian Gulf of any kind, not just oil, and/or 2) talk to their ally Ansarallah and have them blockade the Red Sea (and they seem keen to do so in support of the Resistance).

Additionally, Iran has made the end of the US blockade the precondition to enter into new negotiations. The short term and even medium term effect of the US blockade will be minimal - China has a colossal strategic petroleum reserve which will last them several months even with their economy at full steam even assuming all Middle Eastern imports are cut off overnight, and Iran itself is not wholly reliant on oil exports for basic survival like other oil states (though it'll certainly hurt the economy if prolonged). There are also certain ways that the blockade can be subverted, like potentially some advanced shadow fleet tactics with the cooperation of allied countries, or, in the long term, the construction of overland oil transportation routes (a significant railway route was constructed in the last few years between Iran and China).

Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


top 50 comments
sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[-] plinky@hexbear.net 22 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Larger numbers of militants seen entering Mali’s capital of Bamako this morning, as elements of the Malian Army and Africa Corps have seemingly collapsed across the country upon almost immediate contact with the FLA and JNIM.

https://nitter.net/sentdefender/status/2047975585599615475

I wonder if mr traore (as he is next) done something else aside from aurafarming, or frenchies will triumphantly liberate them from ~~their own proxy~~ darned terrorists in 5 years

[-] test_@hexbear.net 14 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

One of the comments:

https://nitter.net/casusbellii/status/2047979502127476979

To be precise this is Kati which is like 10min away from Bamako

Malian forces are starting a counter op and clashes are ongoing

Other places in Mali are also attacked by FLA, which let me think this is extremely well coordinated.

[-] test_@hexbear.net 7 points 1 hour ago

I can't find anything to confirm this, but @casusbelli claims:

https://nitter.net/casusbellii/status/2048059275856023691#m

Calm is back in Bamako and vicinity.

Seen videos of tuareg bodies (assuming its JNIM) lynched by crowd.

One of them is tied to a rope attached to a car, which is dragging him through the streets.

Obviously not publishing anything gore.

[-] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 3 points 36 minutes ago* (last edited 36 minutes ago)

~25m ago - Trump on Truth Social

I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going is Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their “leadership.” Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

[-] Maturin@hexbear.net 5 points 27 minutes ago

Hey we just met you

And you’re all crazy

So here’s my number

And call me, maybe?

[-] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 1 points 22 minutes ago* (last edited 22 minutes ago)

Those Russian crank callers have the opportunity to do the funniest thing

load more comments (1 replies)
[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 3 points 30 minutes ago

Petro's visit, pilgrimage, and penal reform during Venezuela week - Prensa Latina

Article

Caracas, April 25 (Prensa Latina) The visit of Colombian President Gustavo Petro and the national pilgrimage of civil society in all states of the country marked the week that ends today in Venezuela, where deported migrants continued to arrive.

The Colombian leader made his seventh trip to Caracas since taking office in August 2022 to talk with his counterpart, Delcy Rodríguez, and seal an agreement after the conclusion of the III Meeting of the Neighborhood and Integration Commission.

During this two-day meeting, 11 working groups were set up to discuss topics such as cooperation in the cultural and educational fields; security and defense; trade, industry and tourism; environmental and health issues; energy and hydrocarbons; among others.

Petro and Rodríguez witnessed the signing of the important document by Foreign Ministers Yván Gil and Rosa Villavicencio, respectively, outside the Miraflores Palace, the seat of government.

Ministers from different portfolios, authorities from security agencies and other representatives from both countries "cooked up" the text, which has not yet been made public.

However, the leaders acknowledged before the national and foreign press the main topics discussed, as well as the progress in strategic areas, the challenges still to be overcome, and the aspirations to achieve Simón Bolívar's Gran Colombia project, as Petro stated.

According to Rodríguez, this meeting was framed within a moment of profound need for unity and integration of both peoples, for which they worked intensely on how to "establish and nurture that path of unity".

The Bolivarian head of state considered the opening of the border, which had been closed by previous governments and which she described as "irrational" and unnatural decisions, as crucial moments of the last four years.

He also praised the recovery of bilateral trade, which was affected by that measure and fell to "very low" levels, but has been recovering despite the economic blockade against Venezuela, reaching $1.2 billion last year and potentially reaching $2 billion by the end of this year.

Other important aspects focused on the president's proposal to replace mutual imports of products obtained in both countries, the electrical, gas and air interconnection, and to boost tourism.

Perhaps the most significant aspect of the meeting was the "serious and comprehensive approach" to combating criminal gangs and international crime along the 2,219 kilometers of shared border.

In that regard, Caracas and Bogotá agreed on military intervention plans on each side of the dividing line and the establishment of "immediate mechanisms" to share intelligence information.

“Let the drug trafficking groups, who are involved in fuel and other types of smuggling, know that we are taking firm steps to combat these crimes,” Rodríguez stressed.

For the ruler of New Granada, this is the path to restoring the unity of the peoples and "economic, social and political integration as well"; and he recalled Bolívar's Gran Colombia project that grew and can be reestablished in other forms in the 21st century.

He advocated for a joint, thoroughly coordinated effort to "free the border towns from the mafias," and in this way be able to re-establish concrete paths of integration between the two nations, which he hoped would deepen "food integration."

Petro expressed that it is difficult "to call ourselves neighbors because we share the same history, the cultures of the same people, and we should be brothers."

Also significant during the week was the start of the great pilgrimage "United for a Venezuela without sanctions and in peace", which departed from three points in the country on April 19 to advance through the 24 states and end on the 30th in Caracas.

This pilgrimage involves workers, farmers, members of parliament from different political parties, both government and opposition, religious groups, and the general public who raise their voices to demand an end to the sanctions and to call for peace.

The pilgrimage is for walking, singing and praying together for Venezuela, declared the dignitary in charge from Falcón, and insisted in her call that "everyone is invited to join" this initiative.

It is planned that the day after Rodríguez's proposal concludes, there will be a rally in the capital to celebrate May 1st, International Workers' Day.

Also important in the last seven days was the signing of the decree that established the Commission for the Great National Consultation on the Reform of Criminal Justice, which, in the opinion of the acting president, has been "a debt to the Venezuelan people."

The governor stressed that there are still problems that persist and have not been overcome, which is why the process "is not only to consult with academics and specialists, but to do it with the people."

Similarly, the day before, the preliminary commission of the National Assembly (parliament) began the process to formalize the nominations to join the Judicial Nominations Committee, which will have the mission of evaluating the candidates to fill the vacant positions of magistrates in the Supreme Court of Justice.

[-] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 7 points 48 minutes ago
[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 4 points 31 minutes ago

ah, gruel and... uh, two eggs? my favorite! catgirl-disgust

[-] Maturin@hexbear.net 2 points 24 minutes ago

Tell me when they are down to just ship’s biscuit, half rations of salt meat, no tobacco, and only every other ration of grog.

[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 1 points 21 minutes ago

Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said that Mercosur will analyze Venezuela's return - La Diaria

“Given that it is going through a different moment, this issue will be discussed again,” said the head of Lula’s government.

Article

Venezuela's reintegration into Mercosur is an issue that will have to be discussed, according to what Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said at a press conference in Brasilia.

The country has been suspended from the group since 2017 after violating the democratic clause of the participation agreement of the space whose permanent members are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

“Venezuela is suspended from Mercosur, but given that it is going through a different moment, this issue will be discussed again,” Alckmin, who will be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s vice-presidential candidate in the October general elections, told the press.

These statements by Alckmin come after the drastic changes that took place in Venezuela starting on January 3, when a US intervention kidnapped and deported Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores to New York.

Two days later, with Washington's approval, Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of acting president, and from that moment on Caracas adopted a more conciliatory stance, seeking to resume and normalize relations with Western institutions and strategic partners, such as the United States.

The eventual reintegration of Venezuela into Mercosur would require the consensus of the member states and an assessment of whether it meets minimum democratic standards.

Alckmin, who also served as Minister of Industry and Trade during Lula's current term, emphasized that expansion is part of Mercosur's strategic agenda. In addition to Venezuela's potential return to the organization, Bolivia is adopting the bloc's legal and trade regulations after being accepted as a full member in 2024, while Colombia is also seeking full membership.

If it materializes, Venezuela's return to Mercosur will coincide with the bloc's completion of the final steps of the economic agreement with the European Union, which, if concluded, will formalize the world's largest free trade region.

The agreement, which was negotiated by the parties for more than 20 years, will begin to be implemented provisionally from May 1st.

Brazil estimates that, once the agreement is in effect, it could increase its exports to the European bloc by around 13%, according to Bloomberg.

Alckmin positively assessed the agreement reached with the Europeans, describing it as a win-win situation, according to the Info Money website .

“It’s a win-win situation. Society benefits when markets open up, tariffs are reduced, and competitiveness is boosted. It’s the largest trade agreement between blocs in the world. We’re talking about a $22 trillion market, and President Lula’s trip to Europe has precisely that objective. It’s also to showcase our biofuels at the Hannover Fair,” the vice president declared at the start of this week, as the president began his tour of Germany.

[-] SexUnderSocialism@hexbear.net 17 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

US imposes sanctions on a China-based oil refinery and 40 shippers over Iranian oil | AP News

ArticleWASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump’s administration is placing economic sanctions on a major China-based oil refinery and roughly 40 shipping companies and tankers involved in transporting Iranian oil.

The move, announced Friday and first reported by The Associated Press, makes good on Trump’s threat to impose secondary sanctions on companies and countries that do business with Iran. It’s also part of his Republican administration’s overall ramped-up campaign to cut off Iran’s key source of revenue — its oil exports.

Concurrently, the U.S. this month imposed a physical blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is crucial to global energy supplies.

The sanctions, which cut off the companies from the U.S. financial system and penalize anyone who does business with them, come just a few weeks before President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are due to meet in China.

Included in Friday’s sanctions is Hengli Petrochemical’s facility in the port city of Dalian, which has a processing capacity of roughly 400,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it one of the biggest independent refineries in China.

The Treasury Department says Hengli has received Iranian crude oil shipments since 2023 and has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the Iranian military.

The advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran said in February 2025 that Hengli is one of dozens of Chinese purchasers of Iranian oil.

China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, importing 80% to 90% of Iranian oil before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran broke out, though the crude — transported by a shadow fleet of vessels — often has its origin obscured but arrives in China as oil from countries such as Malaysia. Smaller refineries, known as teapot refineries, typically are the buyers of Iranian oil.

Iran has previously said that its demands for ending the war include the lifting of sanctions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday that his agency “will continue to constrict the network of vessels, intermediaries and buyers Iran relies on to move its oil to global markets.”

Earlier this month, Bessent’s department sent a letter to financial institutions in China, Hong Kong, the UAE and Oman threatening to levy secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran and accusing those countries of allowing Iranian illicit activities to flow through their financial institutions.

Bessent said during a White House press briefing on April 15 that the administration has told countries “that if you are buying Iranian oil, that if Iranian money is sitting in your banks, we are now willing to apply secondary sanctions, which is a very stern measure.”

The sanctions come as the global energy trade is in turmoil as war around the Persian Gulf chokes off oil and natural gas shipments, causing prices to soar.

Treasury has tried to quell the impact of rising oil prices issuing temporary sanctions waivers on Russia oil and a one-time waiver on Iranian oil already at sea.

The AP was making efforts to contact Chinese officials for comment on the sanctions.

China has disagreed with previous U.S. sanctions, but its major companies and banks still comply with U.S. sanctions because they are more exposed to the U.S.-dominated financial system.

After the U.S. earlier this month sanctioned a Chinese refinery accused of buying Iranian oil, Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, said the use of the sanctions “undermines international trade order and rules, disrupts normal economic and trade exchanges, and infringes upon the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and individuals.”

The Great Satan loves their sanctions. It's time to counter-sanction these ghouls. amerikkka

[-] miz@hexbear.net 10 points 1 hour ago

New Delhi condemns Trump's comments calling India a 'hellhole' | The Cradle

excerptNew Delhi harshly criticized US President Donald Trump on 24 April after he shared comments on social media describing India and China as “hellholes,” and accusing immigrants from those countries of exploiting the birthright citizenship law in the US.

On Friday, Trump's Truth Social account posted a transcript of a podcast episode from US conservative political commentator and radio host Michael Savage.

In addition to speaking negatively about China and India, Savage described immigrants to the US who commit welfare fraud as “gangsters with laptops.” He also argued that Indians working for US technology companies refuse to hire whites.

Savage argued against birthright citizenship in the US and accused immigrants from countries such as India and China of exploiting this right. “A baby here becomes an instant citizen. And then they bring the entire family in from China or India or some other hellhole,” Savage said.

[article continues]

things are looking great for The Quad

[-] detergent@hexbear.net 87 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

Anyone following following AI reporting by Ed Zitron? The industry looks really bad. $65 billion max in total revenue across the entirety of AI when Western tech media really wants you to believe the entire world economy revolves around AI now.

The entire industry — including OpenAI and Anthropic’s theoretical revenues of $13.1 billion and $4.5 billion — hit around $65 billion last year, and that includes the revenues from providing compute generated by neoclouds like CoreWeave and hyperscalers like Microsoft.

For reference Lenovo, the company behind the Thinkpad laptops, has $80 billion in revenue.. Except Lenovo actually makes money.

There's this image from Western media anywhere where the entire world economy would collapse if the AI bubble bursts, or at minimum would cause a DotCom or 2008 style crash but it wouldn't be anywhere near that big. Nobody would notice if Lenovo disappeared overnight.

The more I read from Ed Zitron the more that the AI craze looks like the NFT bubble.

Front page of Ed Zitron's reporting: https://wheresyoured.at/

[-] plinky@hexbear.net 10 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

does-he-know

Oh look, department of war is in need of autonomous drone target control, what a coincidence, just so happens.

If 400 billion capex is around correct, 80 billion a year is enough to kinda sustain them. claude already killing school children in iran (and their monthly revenue suddenly increased during maduro kidnapping as well), so for 10% pentagon budget you buy out stock market (or for 16% republican increase) for years, get hardware porkies on side, damn silly how that works

[-] wideopenarms@hexbear.net 33 points 6 hours ago

The more I read from Ed Zitron the more that the AI craze looks like the NFT bubble.

I thought this was something most people knew or assumed - the AI craze started right after NFTs peaked and imploded, so it seemed obvious all involved businesses just pivoted to that to justify past investments and continue taking money from investors.

[-] joaomarrom@hexbear.net 41 points 7 hours ago

Also, Deepseek v4 has just come out and apparently it does not depend on CUDA cores, which means it's less dependent on Nvidia chips. If this proves to be a plausible way forward for AI in general, then the bubble gets even shakier, because Nvidia is the big Jenga block supporting this whole bullshit.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 20 points 4 hours ago

Mashallah. I'm a general sceptic of AI in most stuff but Deepseek is impressive for how little it costs. If v4 has better code completion support I'd probably buy some more credit

[-] sexywheat@hexbear.net 25 points 7 hours ago

Western capital doesn't have anything or anywhere left to invest in!

It's like the the tulip craze on steroids and a maybe a dying breath of venture tech capital. They're putting the cart before the horse; AI doesn't make money! They're lighting veritable mountains of money on fire! Certainly "AI" will be a huge propaganda tool going forward and will stick around, but for revenue generation it does not appear to be viable.

Something like a third of the entire Burgerland stock market is being propped up by this while the rest of the economy is in recession.

The bubble is going to pop when material reality catches up and the cracks are already showing.

Also does anyone else have this song appear in your head every time you read Ed Zitron's blog

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 39 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Western capital doesn't have anything or anywhere left to invest in!

If this were true then western manufacturing would be more efficient than Chinese manufacturing. Cars are an obvious one. But what we see is the opposite. They're choosing not to improve what they do because they want to invest in these things that will make them rich faster.

There's a choice between real material investments or fast growth investments in total bullshit like crypto or NFTs or AI. They're taking the fast growth every single time because it's the better option for growing their capital even if it means the real physical world that they're the rulers of is in decline.

So it's not really that there isn't anything or anywhere to invest, it's that the bullshit investments now offer a more reliable and faster growth opportunity than anything that represents a real improvement.

[-] supafuzz@hexbear.net 31 points 5 hours ago

Financialization and its consequences have been a disaster for the industrial revolution

[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 3 points 7 hours ago

I found YouTube links in your comment. Here are links to the same videos on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

Link 1:

Link 2:

[-] Kieselguhr@hexbear.net 24 points 8 hours ago

I would also add a reminder that chipmaking needs actual Helium molecules from... Qatar

[-] OffSeasonPrincess@hexbear.net 14 points 8 hours ago

What the fuck is "theoretical revenue"

[-] jmo@hexbear.net 19 points 6 hours ago

Annualized ARR, So as an example Anthropic probably just had a great month where they made an extra 1-2 billion in revenue. They then go in multiply it by 12 and say that their annualized ARR increased by 12-24 billion. It's misleading when subscription companies do it but at least for them users then to sign up to spend the same amount every month or year. With a consumption based model it's even wonkier because if you had costs get out of control in April you're likely to to try and bring them down by lowering consumption in May.

[-] volcel_olive_oil@hexbear.net 24 points 9 hours ago

I've been reading his free articles as they come out, it's fun to see just exactly how fucked the AI datacenter business model is

the reality is seeping into some of my tech friends' rhetoric lately, people who used to be enthusiastic about the possibilities are now like "yeah they'll never make money, I hope there will be a locally runnable coding AI in the future"

[-] AltMaarri@hexbear.net 19 points 6 hours ago

I hope there will be a locally runnable coding AI in the future

Mind you there already are; they keep complaining they're "six months out of date" but frankly I'm finding models like these run locally to produce very close results to the latest models from the ongoing circus.

That's based on limited tests out of curiosity mind you because regardless of where you run them it's important to remember that the technology doesn't work. That is, it cannot do even a small fraction of what they're trying to sell it for (at a loss, too). Even for coding it's mostly shit. These are credible-sounding-text completion machines, without any understanding of anything. Outside of propaganda and entertainment, the actual viable use cases are few and far between.

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 9 points 4 hours ago

I'm still waiting for some better support from tooling for stuff like fill-in-the-middle code completion, but I did find Qwen 2.5 was decent on my mid-range gaming laptop (AMD RX-6600M on Linux) when it worked. Continue.dev and similar plugins for vs-code are still a bit.. meh. And Microsoft is clearly scared to open up an API for copilot because it would haemorrhage their US$20/mo subscription service...

The agentic vibecoding shit is the kind of thing that isn't feasible outside of a fat datacenter, at least for the next few years if you're running anything remotely close to an affordable setup.

[-] jmo@hexbear.net 16 points 6 hours ago

I read him and largely agree, I also work in the space. The thing I'd say we need to be careful of with his analysis is he consistent assumes the worst case scenario when there is ambiguity and he assumes that the worst possible outcomes from every negative event experienced by AI companies.

That's not to say he isn't useful, just be aware that he can easily go beyond what the evidence realistically supports and that can leave you overly optimistic about the downfall of these AI compainies.

[-] MarxMadness@hexbear.net 32 points 11 hours ago

There's this image from Western media anywhere where the entire world economy would collapse if the AI bubble bursts, or at minimum would cause a DotCom or 2008 style crash but it wouldn't be anywhere near that big. Nobody would notice if Lenovo disappeared overnight.

Wouldn't the economic impact be more proportional to investor dollars lost than the industry's revenue?

[-] jmo@hexbear.net 20 points 5 hours ago

Yes! I was just having this discussion last night. We have another 2.5 trillion in capex, the money corporations allocate to investing in their infrastructure, committed to AI datacenter buildout this year. That's A LOT of money. It's not being spent on bridges, roads, hospitals, schools, etc. It's being spent on specialized data centers intended to house massive GPU farms to run and train the latest and greatest AI models.

AFAICT this only pays off they manage to actually beat the theoretically limitations of these LLMs and make a machine god. The so what of all that is we have A LOT of capital chasing, what is probably, a fantasy. As it does so it isn't creating a useful stay behind asset. AI datacenters aren't general purpose and can't be easily reused. Add to that the fact that the GPUs don't actually have a very long productive life and you start to see problems compound.

One important methodological note here: Zitron's numbers on Capex are WAY better than mine. I did some digging into that 2.5 trillion number while writing this comment and found out that was based on a single source, Gartner, which has an incentive to pump up the numbers.

[-] jmo@hexbear.net 7 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Ok, the numbers and spend question led me down a really interesting rabbit hole and I wanted to share a little bit of what I learned. TL;DR AI data center spend, in absolute and relative terms, is really high. Please take all my statements with a heavy dose of salt as I'm not an economist or professional researcher.

It's probably less than railroads ~6% of GDP and probably more than telco spend leading up to the dotcom bubble ~1.5% of GDP. It's reasonable to guess that is represents, or will by the end of 2026, ~ 2.2% of US GDP. Like the dotcom bubble it's largely funded by private capital. Unlike the dotcom bubble it's much more reliant on debt, specifically private credit debt, we'll get back to why that might matter later. Where things get interesting is in the durable nature of the utility value of the goods produced by the investment. Railroad capital mostly has a 100+ year utility value, tracks can be used for a long time with some regular maintenance. Fiber has a 15+ year, probably a lot longer, utility value and again a lot of the associated infrastructure stays useful for a long time with maintenance. Data center infrastructure and GPUs are not so lucky. The people spending the money say the GPUs are good for 5 years, they probably have a 1-3 year usable lifespan. Data center infrastructure itself has a much longer useful lifespan but those buildings aren't exactly general purpose, if AI is a bust you'll need to have a new use for all that space. The so what of all that is this is looking even less rational and useful than the dotcom era infrastructure investment boom.

On the debt financing thing I talked about getting back to I'd suggest you take a look at this article that has the heterodox economist Michal Hudson talking about why he thinks the west is in for a really bad ride if AI + private credit + energy crisis all come together for a lemon party type situation.

[-] detergent@hexbear.net 55 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago)

From an uneducated Marxist perspective it feels like the western bourgeoisie are manifesting their final victory over the proletariat (but in the lib The Secret self-help book way). They're projecting this hyper-reality where the west is WW2 mobilizing to build AI and AI datacenters but in reality they're actually building them with the same vigor that they build Amtrak stations and infrastructure. The data centers are not being built and like half of Nvidia's GPU output is ending up sitting in warehouses.

The skyrocketing token usage and new tricks like Claude code are coming from Anthropic and OpenAI throwing exponentially more compute at their models but that would imply charging their users (or B2B clients) exponentially more money, which is not going to happen.

The way that the AI sphere boosts their numbers 🐡 is very much in line with other Trump-era grifts, like trading money back and forth over and over again and making non-binding commitments to buy 40% of the world's DRAM and then not doing it.

Edit: There's also this myth that tech bros like to repeat that there are 900 million AI users but I'm pretty sure that just includes everyone that uses a search engine which all automatically send your prompt to an LLM at least occasionally. The old non-LLM powered search summaries you would get on Duck Duck Go and Google have been replaced by ChatGPT and Google Gemini summaries. They probably also count everyone that watches YouTube and accidentally clicks on an AI video description.

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 64 points 16 hours ago

"A Jewish State for The Jewish People" 💀

[-] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 10 points 4 hours ago

Israel liberals get to supplant slave labour from Gaza with slave labour from India, and the Israeli fascists get to piss shit and whine about "importing the third world". Bipartisan Zionism.

[-] CyborgMarx@hexbear.net 19 points 6 hours ago

The incredible amount of racism ALL of them are about to experience on a daily basis may just wake some of them up from the cultist reverie they suffer from, here's hoping

[-] SickSemper@hexbear.net 10 points 2 hours ago

Just like Arab and African Jews before them, they will accept being lower in the white supremacist hierarchy so long as they’re on top of the Jewish supremacist hierarchy. As far as I know, no Jewish group of any significance has turned their guns on the government

[-] AlHouthi4President@lemmy.ml 1 points 25 minutes ago

Spot on comrade.

Its like how I feel about hearing American POC complaining about racism in the US military.

My sympathy is negative.

[-] red_giant@hexbear.net 15 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

Now we can add biryani and madras chicken to the list of traditional Israeli cuisine

[-] culpritus@hexbear.net 72 points 15 hours ago

The movement began in 1951, when a tribal leader reported having a dream that his people's ancient homeland was Israel; some tribal members began embracing the idea that they were Jews. Before the movement's start, the community was largely a Christian one.

free-real-estate

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 55 points 15 hours ago

They're not any more native to Palestine than Netanhayu, why not?

load more comments (1 replies)
load more comments
view more: next ›
this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2026
174 points (100.0% liked)

news

24740 readers
458 users here now

Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:

We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.

Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:

The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.

  1. Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.

  2. Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.

  3. Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.

  4. Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.

  5. Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.

  6. Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.

  7. American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.

  8. Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.

  9. AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.

founded 5 years ago
MODERATORS