Image is of President Hakainde Hichilema and President Xi Jinping on September 15th, from this article.
Zambia is a country of 20 million people, located in southern Africa. Breaking free from British rule in the 1960s, the new government was a one party state ruled by the socialist UNIP party with its leader Kenneth Kaunda, who was a strong supporter of the Non-Aligned Movement (and was its chairman from 1970-73). Its economy has been and remains characterised by copper exports - it is the second-largest copper exporter in Africa - and the economy deeply struggled in the 1970s due to the price of copper plunging. After the fall of the USSR, and due to violent protests, Kaunda stepped down and instituted a multiparty democracy, which has been maintained without (successful) coups to this day, though there are warnings by the leader that some are plotting a coup, given the trend right now.^AA^
Earlier this year, in June, Zambia struck a deal to restructure the $6.3 billion in debt that they are burdened with, of which China is the single largest creditor.^Reuters^ Though he has typically been more West-friendly, last week, President Hichilema traveled to China for two days, meeting with various companies, and Xi Jinping himself. They elevated their relationship to that of a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.^Xinhua^ He and Xi have agreed to the increased use of local currencies in trade.^BB^
Hichilema said Zambia thanks China for supporting the African Union's entry into the G20 and China's positive role in resolving the Zambian debt issue. The Zambian side abides by the one-China principle, highly appreciates the guiding philosophy and principles of Chinese modernization, and hopes to learn from China's development experience.
Hichilema has also said:^AN^
"We can do more, faster, because the needs are tremendous in Zambia. I heard some of the solutions are here. All we need to do is to combine the two together."
Check out @Othello@hexbear.net's discussion of The Wretched of the Earth!
The Country of the Week is Singapore! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.
The news summary for last week is here!
Links and Stuff
The bulletins site is down.
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can.
Resources For Understanding The War
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
Does the Poland Ukraine drama make it more likely or less likely that Poland occupies Western Ukraine for "peace keeping"?
Depends on the time frame, obviously not right now. But 12 months from now? After the US forces a peace deal? Still as likely as ever, I still push this theory since reading about it last year and nothing changed, it is one of the most likely pieces along the chain of events for example:
1-US conducts negotiations on the backdoor, there was some rumors about "tier 2" talks going on a few months ago, I wont pretend I care about this rumor but Mercouris talked about it some so it is a thing.
2-Putin agrees that he wont attack Kiev and gets to keep all territories and in turn NATO agrees with Ukraine neutrality and lifting sanctions, this is the basis of the April 22 deal among other things.
3-With assurances that Russia wont declare WW3 if NATO gets "peacekeepers" on the ground it is further agreed Ukraine will give up territory to Poland as payment/compensation. Zelensky agrees because NATO assures they'll have his back for another election, he "won" the war so he is a hero right? Its not like the Nazis who want to genocide Russians in Crimea will be even slightly angry or frustrated if Zelensky himself accepts the peace deal right? Look here, the guy is a hero, he made a point to go to the front and give medals to the idiots in Bahkmut. That will surely prevent the nazis from hating his gut lol lmao.
4-Western media wont talk about 1-2 and instead the narrative will be that this is a grand victory, NATO finaly intervenes and saves poor little smol bean Ukraine from the asiatic horde and the "peacekeepers" from Poland are literaly the only thing stopping Putler from going all the way to Berlin.
"Listen here kid, it is for their own good ok? This is literally the only way to preserve democracy."
5-Russians will once again shrug and laugh that western media is fabricating another narrative, but they'll be happy with the deal.
6 to infinity- The year is 2028-9 and after 5 years of a long and glorious "peacekeeping mission" the Ukrainian freedom loving holy warriors decided they've had enough with the poles , blowback season 6 or something.
Wait why would NATO agree to lifting sanctions if Russia keeps its territory?
There are a lot of reason.
1-Sanctions are destroying EU economy, German capitalists specialy know this but they accept/bow down to American interests and the German financial/neoliberal class interests. But there is no short term choice but to get back to cheap Russian energy.
2-This de-industrialization is causing a severe erosion of the EU liberal hegemony, right wing parties are gaining traction and neoliberals have no answer but to double down. However these same neolibs depend on US support and if the US accepts a peace deal(i.e because war on China) then EU neoliberalism will give way to EU fascism. Again the only way to stop this is to stop their economies from going to shit.
3- You often see articles highlighting the profits and the money still left in Russia, some of those companies want it back, Russia is a developed though not "wealthy" economy and again the only winners from these sanctions were Russian capitalists that were suddenly gifted a walled garden economy with no competition with western businesses. So western companies actualy would benefit a lot more from getting back inside Russia.
4-Something something get that Russian oligarch money flowing into the EU/UK again.
Has there been any talk about Poland occupying Ukraine in mainstream media or is it something exclusively discussed by the terminally online? I ask as a terminally online person myself, I have no reference for what normal people are up to
You're not going see anything about it in the media, for obvious reasons, but it's not exactly a secret that Polish nationalists would love to take back Lviv if given a chance, to restore Poland to its 'former glory'.
How much influence do they actually have?
Mainstream western media of course not, except that NATO controversy about Ukraine giving up territories.
Other than that Medved makes remarks about this often enough, even though it is shit talking politics it is also extremely clear everyone in Moscow knows about this possibility.
This was a recent controversial statement from some NATO idiot: Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, writes:
Earlier Two good morning thoughts
Also even earlier Russian cope/"analysis" ´There is this Telegram post I can find
spoiler
Poland is openly talking about taking former Polish territories. Russia is highlighting this fact in the media. Even Dimitry Medvedev often highlights it on his Telegram channel. But apart from highlighting it, there don’t seem to be many objections. In fact, I believe, that it would have some advantages for Russia, if Poland would indeed take the Lvov oblast.Russia could indeed allow Poland to take the Lviv oblast marked above. It is an oblast that is highly committed to and associated with Stepan Bandera ideology. They are deeply anti-Russian and one would struggle to call them Russians or former Russians. In fact, taking, appeasing, and governing it would be a burden to Russia. It will be a burden for Poland as well, but they want it.
The big advantage is not about governing or appeasing it. No, the big advantage is that it would trigger major tensions within the EU and NATO, especially between Poland and the other major EU countries, Germany, France, and Italy. I remember a comment from the German chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2022. Reportedly, he privately said to the Poles that if they insist on reparation payments from Germany, that Germany could remember about former German territories that are currently part of Poland. If Poland takes Lviv, then this dispute would escalate.
Tensions in the EU and NATO absolutely contribute to the implementation of the new draft treaty for European security. Not voluntarily, but by diplomatic force. So, I truly could imagine that such a move could take place if the Polish really want it, but in agreement with Russia, not against Russia’s will. Here we come to two major constraints:
The oblasts north of Lvov mustn’t be touched by Poland. These are buffer and security zones for Belarus. The oblasts to the south of Lvov also mustn’t be touched by Poland. These are the geopolitical gates to the Eastern European states. So, to say, land bridges through states, that are not controlled by the West. West Ukraine (to be done), Hungary (will break free as soon as the land bridge is established) and Serbia (the same).
If Poland were to claim these territories, there would be a lightning response by President Putin. I think the message was clear to Poland. I explained it already in my analysis of Phase 3. It is possible that West Ukraine (minus Lvov) won’t join Russia. Who knows? But it certainly will be taken, demilitarized and denazified. Afterwards, it could be released in some kind of pseudo-independence, with Russian military bases on its territory, to secure this state. But this “pseudo-independent country” would be crucial because it would be Russia’s gate to Eastern Europe. Its landbridge.
I'd imagine less since it would come across as naked aggression now.