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I blame unfederated subscriber counts. If you look up any community from an account on lemmy.world and there is a local version and a remote version... the local version LOOKS bigger when it's about half the size because the remote version only shows subscribers from lemmy.world whereas the local version shows subs fediverse-wide.
If sub counts were apples to apples for remote and local communities, people would much more frequently sub to the bigger remote comminity. But lemmy.world is so big, that when people are subbing locally because they're confused about which is bigger... the lemmy.world community actually becomes bigger very quickly. So it's winning the community scaling races consistently on pure confusion. The resulting community centralization is not all that healthy and they often overtake better run and more established communities for no meaningful reason.
I'm with you on all points
How can one avoid this "trap?"
As an individual?
Lemmy.world
recently became the largest for its topic in the most recent user-signup wave while effectively being unmoderated. It overtook an older, more established, and better run community on another instance and it's too late for accurate size-metrics to help anyone understand the difference between these communities now. You have to look at mod activity to see that one mod team solicited community feedback on rules, enforced them fairly, set up raceday discussion threads, and had fruitful policy discussions and calm disagreements with subscribers. The other was absent for days at a time, ignored mentions, didn't set up rules, ignored conflicts between users, the showed up to remove posts trying to jumpstart policy discussions, and basically was AWOL until some users of the community petitioned the admins to take over the community. It's probably going to head in a better direction now that there are finally more mods on board, but its dominant growth phase occured while an absent mod was squatting it and doing nothing much of use, the only thing that mattered was being onlemmy.world
with misleading subscriber counts and that was enough to become what is now genuinely the biggest community for its topic.As the threadiverse overall, I think community discovery within Lemmy just has to be a lot better. I'm not sure what that looks like in its entirety, but I'm confident that a critical piece of the experience is comparable activity metrics for local and remote communities being prominent in Lemmy's native community browser.
Thanks for the detailed answer!