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Cryptoflation
(lemmy.world)
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this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2023
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Bitcoin is up almost 150% this year.
Now do 2 years
It's down about 7% from December 2021.
No, it's down 28% from December 3, 2021
Let's keep going. It's up 117% from December 3, 2020.
That's my point, saying "it's up x this year" as a justification to buy it lacks so much context as to be completely meaningless
Ok it’s up 70 000% from 10 years ago
And it's up [undefined] from 20 years ago
Fuck I should have bought some then
No, it means it's not dead and is still trending up.
Yes, more scams are brewing again.
web3isgoinggreat.com
Eat downvote (for some reason)
And then do 10 years
I mean, the joke is being posted in 2023. Losing half in 2023 would mean you were trading not investing.
The joke is also from 2022 when it could be easily true.
The joke only mentions a year.
And inflation is not 7.5%
It was 7.9% in February of '22
He might have confused it with interest rates. Not sure what inflation rate is right now, but it was over 7.5% for awhile.
S-C-A-M-Μ-E-R A-L-E-R-T
dudud (insert funfair voices and sounds)
Bitcoin is not a scam. Most other crypto is though.
Do you see Bitcoin more as a currency (like, something that will revolutionize how you pay for groceries) or as a security (as in "hodl"?)
If as a currency, how do you foresee it overcoming its scalability problems? If as a security, how do you think people will continue to have faith in it such that its price won't go in the next few years to (roughly) zero?
"Security" is kind of a loaded term, implying that you're relying on the efforts of a company to make the value go up, "Digital asset" is probably more accurate. IMO the "store of wealth" value proposition does make some sense, so long as Bitcoin retains the #1 spot in terms of name recognition. It's like gold, it doesn't have to be very useful in itself, it just has to be an effective and popular way to hoard wealth, and it has a lot of useful properties for that despite its flaws.
In other words, after you average out short term volatility, bitcoin's price reflects quite directly its brand value and nothing else.
If we're talking about its price relative to other cryptocurrencies I would say mostly yes. Its price relative to other wealth assets also reflects the utility for that purpose cryptocurrencies generally have. Like, a lot more liquid than real estate, a lot easier to store, confirm authenticity, and transfer internationally than gold, easier to hide and smuggle than stocks, etc.
Well, I would say the utility value of those qualities is well offset by its problems, such as way less market sized than pretty much every main asset class (it's only more liquid than realestate for fast in-and-out trading of smaller values, but less liquid than even realestate for large trades - because large trades that would barelly move the realestate market can massivelly move the crypto market - or even things with much smaller market sizes than realestate, such as most individual corporate stocks and the latter are actually faster to trade than Bitcoin because the stock exchange systems are way faster ) as well as its ridiculous gamma - i.e. volatily - (worse than stocks and almost at the level of derivatives such as Futures) and hence horrible risk profile for holding wealth (but wonderful for day-trading) and any professional trader will take that price risk into account when calculating the value of such an investment (and in my experience in the Industry and in derivative pricing, stuff with high gamma needs to yield massive returns to be worth the risk of holding over longer than a few days unless you can find something else with a negative price movement correlation to offset that risk)
In summary, as a Financial Asset for holding wealth, its only "reliable" value is its price's positive correlation to brand recognition, though it's a wonderful asset for speculative trading thanks to that massive volatility and all the wonderfull possibilities to make money from the movement itself on both the long and the short side (the people I know who reliably make money from crypto currencies without actually setting up crypto scams, do it exactly via speculative trading of it in short time frames).
I think it is reasonable to expect those two issues (volatility, market depth) to resolve themselves over time as crypto becomes more established. The trend has already been consistently in that direction. The only thing stopping deep pocketed market makers from mostly resolving the latter right now is the current regulatory hostility.
Which is the real problem with Bitcoin and all other crypto. It props up the capitalist system ruining the planet.
I think it's a little more nuanced, but that is the biggest concern I personally have about crypto; once it engulfs more of the financial system it could potentially make it harder to use redistribution to resolve the problems of wealth inequality, by being somewhat beyond the reach and control of the state. That said, our system of debt based fiat currency is itself an engine driving wealth inequality and the worst abuses of capitalism. Just about every dollar in existence is owed by someone somewhere back to the federal reserve, and they and everyone they have employed with their borrowed capital is obligated to claw it back and more by any means. Monetary policy is often explicitly intended to do things like suppress wages. Cryptocurrency poses a clear threat to the dollar, which could possibly do more good than harm, but I'm on the fence about it in that respect.
I treat it like a security for now. I'd like to use it as a currency at some point in the future after it has more widespread adoption. I see it kind of like the internet in the late 80's/early 90's right now.
I'm not an expert on the technical hurdles, but I think the lightning network can resolve most scalability problems.
I can't speak for everyone, but I have faith it won't go to zero because I think it solves a real problem and that people find it useful. As a crypto it is unique because it has first mover advantage and is completely decentralized. And the longer it's around, the less likely it is to go to zero.
What problem exactly does it solve?
It's secure and it's decentralized. No other currency offers both. If you don't mind trusting banks and governments to manage the money system its not a big deal. But when they fuck it up, it's the average person that suffers. Taking that power away from them is good for humanity in my opinion.
Now let's talk about how good for humanity its carbon footprint is.
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/crypto-has-climate-problem
Note, that's from February of 2022. The problem has only grown since then.
It isn't secure: web3isgoingreat.com
And decentralisation is not something you want from a currency. All money used to be decentralised. Now we are encountering the same issues with crypto as we have had in the past with real money.
It is basically reinventing the wheel while claiming wood is the better material for the spokes.
I doubt zero will happen ever at this point. Too many businesses are holding it as a store of value for that to happen.
Don't spread F-U-D here. You're lowering the value of my humoristic investment.
It's extremely funny that you thought that was a valid reply. The level of stupidity and ignorance is astounding.
Please enlighten me then.
I mean you gotta be realistic: investing in crypto is either gambling or getting scammed. Bitcoin is probably more stable than most other coins but that doesn't mean it's not a gamble. And volatile = gambling assuming you're not an omnipotent being.
TL;DR don't invest in crypto. Any crypto.
If I'm being realistic, I'm not all-in on bitcoin. I have a variety of investments. But bitcoin is beating them all, by a lot. If you plan to invest in bitcoin and cash out in a few months for a profit? Yeah, that's a gamble. But long term I think it's a safe bet.
Long enough term, it's guaranteed 100% loss though, you just feel like you'll know when to pull the trigger. I divested everything when I 10x'ed my money... when Bitcoin were $1k each. I realized that that ride is a fucking roller coaster and I didn't want on it. Do I wish I had $500k worth of bitcoin right now? Hell yeah, but fuck me if it couldn't have gone the other way.
Isn’t regular money the same? I mean isnt it down 99% in 100 years or something?
Depends on your currency.
USD or EUR? Probably more like 20-40%.
Venezuelan bolivar? 99% is a pipe dream.
Since 1913 the US dollar has lost 96.8% of its value. So yes 99% in 100 years was incorrect
Hell, that's still heaps.
I know they’re not comparable but bitcoin has increased in value around 70 000%. There’s no centralised money printer so supply can’t be diluted and its other feature is its transparency. The funny part is how much value you can attribute to the transparency. It’s so easy for any system to have transparency but when it’s centralised it’s always a conscious decision by the designers to make it closed which will always attract suspicion and erode trust, as it should.
As long as there are bitcoin believers the trend will continue, it doesn’t matter if you personally think bitcoin is stupid or not. I personally think it’s ok but there’s probably better ways to preserve wealth transparently. The only question that matters is will everyone think bitcoin is stupid? As long as price goes up long term answer will be no. Keep in mind in 100 years from now the US dollars value will probably drop another 97% on top of what it’s worth now.
No