Image is of Yemen seizing the first ship in its blockade of Israel (the Galaxy Leader) with a helicopter raid.
Alternate title: What If It Was The Bab El-Womandeb And It Was Just For The Ladies?
Ansarallah is a key component of the broader Resistance movement, backed by Iran, and has been a stalwart member in engineering the ongoing collapse of Zionism. It has steadily escalated both its rhetoric and, rarely nowadays, its actions, proving that the mythical "red line" might actually exist in the world after all, after going MIA in both Russia and China. It has been striking first Israel-owned ships heading through the Bab el-Mandeb - the strait that leads into the Red Sea and then to the Suez Canal - and, recently, has demonstrated its promise that any ships that intend to dock in Israel will be attacked. While this is really only half a blockade, the cost of going around Africa is significant, and Western insurance companies really don't like it when their ships get blasted by missiles and drones. Several shipping companies have already stated their intention to alter/stop shipping routes through the Red Sea, trying to prompt the West to find a "solution".
Despite US naval presence in the area, Yemen possesses the ability to strike the oil refining facilities of the Gulf monarchies, leaving the US in a very difficult position. If they attack Yemen, then not only do Western ships risk being attacked directly, but those oil refineries may go up in smoke depending on if they help the West - and global oil prices will skyrocket, in an already declining world economy - and it might cost several Western leaders their leadership positions, including Biden himself. A regional war could ultimately tumble into worldwide chaos.
Equally, however, the US cannot afford to lose Israel. It is the single most important American imperial outpost, perhaps alongside Taiwan. If Zionism is destroyed as a local destabilizing influence, then the Russia-China-Iran axis will find itself in a leadership position over the region. Israeli military losses in Gaza increase every single day as they advance further into the labyrinth death trap under the obligation to show some kind of military victory, with Hamas' strategy of attrition taking its toll. And Hezbollah sits there, having destroyed most of the border infrastructure, silently threatening the obliteration of Israel's infrastructure under the rain of a hundred thousand missiles.
As world attention gradually shifts away from the Gaza genocide, we continue to approach the brink.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
::: spoiler Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Naked Capitalism: US, Allies Opening New Front in Middle East With Escalation Against Houthis Over Shipping Lanes
There's discussion about to what extent the US can respond to Ansarallah's attacks. Speculation is that the fleet present around Yemen right now can fire 400-800 anti-missile/drone missiles - that is, if Yemen has about a thousand missiles+drones or more, the fleet is fucked unless they can resupply (and that isn't trivial; they'd have to return to port and everything, and you can't just leave your aircraft carrier in the sea while your destroyers are away resupplying). Probably explains why they're bringing a third aircraft carrier group over.
It seems to me that the impact of the blockade is largely symbolic. That's not to say it isn't having a sizable impact on the Israeli economy - it definitely is - but the route all the way around Africa doesn't make the route some arduous trek, and if Israel requires a certain commodity then they can certainly get it. The bigger factor here is that the global hegemon is unable to defend its shipping routes despite having two - soon, three - aircraft carriers in the region, as well as a number of regional allies. Given how much of the financial economy is speculation (read: vibes based), bad vibes can actually have an impact.
Truthfully, I think there's too many unknowns to be able to predict with any great accuracy what would happen beyond that it would be a gigantic and expensive (materially, in terms of missiles used) pain in the ass for the United States even if none of their ships are sunk, and who knows how far Ansarallah will truly go. I don't doubt their beliefs and militant statements per se, I've just been made very cynical over the last couple years about thr concepts of verbally given red lines which are unceremoniously stepped over by the West; I'm definitely a believer in the saying "Don't make promises you can't keep."
Of course, Yemen has already done their fair share compared to most other countries on the planet, so I would be a lot less angry with them not really trying to start a war against the US (and they still very well might!) compared to watching Russia do essentially nothing as Biden clumsily drove his golf cart over 20 red lines in a row. Hearing "Don't send X weapon to Ukraine!" from Russia should basically be interpreted as a masochist saying "Oh no, it would be a real shame if you whipped me for the 45th time! Don't do it!" Again, not saying that Russia should have started bombarding Poland or whatever, just that they should have shut the fuck up if their threats have nothing behind them. Compare this to Hezbollah, who has responded tit-for-tat with Israeli strikes into Lebanon, AND haven't constantly fucking bleated about red fucking lines every time. The threat is implicit, they don't have to say it!
Anyway, on to the first part of the article:
We sort of cross red lines just so that we can say we did without fully committing. Quickly stepping over it and back. And it has been met with escalation in some cases. I think the point about how Hezbollah & Ansar Allah handle this better is correct though.
Also, I kind of doubt the U.S. would be able to bribe and threaten the majority of Houthi militants into just surrendering and/or walking away like they did in Iraq (and probably Afghanistan too, but that last is my own speculation).