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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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The real question is can Russia outlast outside aid to Ukraine.
If USA aid dries up, that will substantially hurt Ukraine. Can the EU make up for it? Even if they can, will they?
Are there any elections coming up in EU support heavy countries where that support could flip like in USA? Can Putin wait that out?
If Russia can start moving forward due to less Ukraine support, will Ukraine keep fighting indefinitely or will they eventually give up territory to Russia to end it?
There's so many unknowns.
The win Russia wanted is gone, but make no mistake Ukraine can only hold out as long as they have support. Russia can and will meat grinder past them if support erodes and they can wait quite awhile longer.
Hopefully they can hold out long enough for this US madness to sort itself out. (Edit but that might last until Jan 2025 and only change if Dems flip the house)
Even if Russia totally breaks Ukraine's military, we can just go back to the original plan America had before they realized that Ukraine actually held the line: armed insurgency. Think Iraqi insurgency against America with the tenacity of the Maripol defenders.
Ya, it's definitely not the end if Russia "wins"
Yes and yes. Switching the economy just into 1st war gear would totally obliterate Russia economically, and the EU will because without committing to victory like that there'd be no way to stop Poland from putting boots on the ground (not to mention Russia winning which everyone knows would be a total disaster). Another scenario would be the EU extending Article 42 protections to Ukraine without Ukraine being a full member (where procedures must be followed) and setting an ultimatum: Remove all troops from Ukraine or we're going to do it for you. Oh and the UK would be included in that they may be a carillon of bellends but luckily their foreign office and military are sane. I don't think that's realistic as long as Ukraine can hold out while the EU is gearing up production, though.
See the strange thing about this is that in Russia's mind this is all about the US because they think, or at least Putin's KGB mind thinks, that we're taking orders from the Seppos. If the US is out of the picture and with it the old cold war fencing duel the overall stakes of conflict lower, which makes engagement more likely. Heck, it might even be the case that Russia then withdraws voluntarily because Putin can sell it as a win: "We have vanquished the US and freed Europe from its imperial grasp, the world is now multipolar". Don't worry about it making sense or not, nothing on Russian state TV makes any sense, it sounds good that's what counts.
Slovaks are up and sending weapons isn't terribly popular there, the current government is already stopping deliveries because, well, they want to be reelected. Reason though is as far as I understand mostly because they're broke, more of a "can we sit this one out, please" attitude. They're not, after all, Serbs (who aren't in the EU).
Hungary is another topic but with PiS gone in Poland (Tusk is again PM) they've lost their protection (possible Polish veto) so Orban is walking on very thin ice right now when it comes to getting suspended from the EU. He's not going to risk that, Hungary is too reliant on the EU for him to survive that politically and we've all witnessed how it went for the UK. Being smarter about it than the UK isn't hard but Hungary does not nearly have the resources and connections and wherewithal to deal with things like the UK could have used if they weren't see my previous insult.
Thanks for the reply. Just wanted to let you know, I only got this today (6 days later), even though I've been frequently using lemmy.world directly on the website and the sync app and getting replies from others with reasonable times. Might be a problem on your end?