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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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Republicans: "We'd win a 2nd civil war, we have all the guns!"
Bitch, do you think your civilian small-arms could stand against the full military might of the federal government!? Not even saying it's a good thing...
Historically yes, an uprising of civilians has a great chance at asymmetrical warfare on their own turf.
You can’t destroy your own infrastructure like you can someone else’s.
Will they win? Almost certainly not.
Can they force some concessions? Probably
If they secdee it is not "your own infrastructure" for the main country anymore.
It is though, they will still want to just reconquer and reconcile
They'd pull punches but lets not kid ourselves, Texas is not going to last very long against checks notes the entire United States military
Honestly though, gutting the infra and starting from scratch would likely be the better choice in the end.
They wouldn't stand a chance. They're power grid is so brittle. The US military would destroy it probably within minutes of an actual war being started. The people who can't stand the heat or the cold (depending on the time of year) would turn on them so quickly.
Just like the south in the civil war, they don't have the infrastructure for the logistics needed to fight a war.
You know unless the struggle is within the us military or the military wont get involved
These aren't the Taliban. These are a bunch of obese losers with handguns. They have nothing once McDonalds pull out.
It wouldn't happen like that. We would have an insurgency and lots of terrorist attacks. You would have towns and areas that are under insurgent control, with reprisal killings at night. Shit like that. I can't tell you to take it seriously, but you ought to at least consider how it would actually look if it happened.
That doesn't mean I don't take it seriously. We already have electrical substations getting shot by "Y'all-Qaeda"...
Well even if they lose, I'm sure that won't be much comfort to the good people they kill along the way. I just don't think we should be glib at the thought of open civil conflict. Looking at it this way convinced me that I don't want to be without the means to defend myself and my loved ones in the event our "cold" civil war suddenly becomes "hot".
It really depends on what would be happening in the military and intelligence services.
I don't think people really understand just how much a civil conflict would be a war of information as opposed to a war of arms.
If things got bad enough domestically that laws like the Patriot Act were expanded and agencies that haven't been supposed to operate domestically suddenly could, and those agencies were still 100% under government control, you'd have vans (or simply drones) taking out domestic terrorists in the middle of the night right before the day they were supposed to organize to kill and terrorize their neighbors.
The US could become an almost unthinkable police state under the control of a government like China's or if we had a Stalin-esque administration.
This is the part that Y'all Queda don't fully grasp. They aren't hiding out in caves in Afghanistan or air gapped in Pakistan. The only thing keeping them safe from the monsters under their bed that they largely don't realize are there is the very government they think would be such a bright idea to try to overthrow. And if that government saw them as enough of an existential threat to unleash the monsters on them, well, they'd have quickly succeeded in overthrowing the US government in a sense, but wouldn't be around to see it.
"The government" isn't a monolith. It is made up of human beings with differing political opinions. US military assets are spread all around the country. US intelligence agencies are full of people that would prefer the far right to the far left. I think you are also overestimating the power of intelligence agencies.
Same argument was made about Jan 6, but when they called in the national guard they showed right the fuck up. Military aren't to be fucked with, they know the chain of command. They know if they step out of line in that way their entire military career (and most likely civilian career and livelihood) is over. It would take several people high up disobeying commands, knowing they'll probably get court martialed, and everyone underneath them for that to happen.
Stop fear mongering. Military knows who is in charge and where their paychecks come from. I'm more worried about who controls the military because that super loyal knife cuts both ways.