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this post was submitted on 26 Jan 2024
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chapotraphouse
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Everyone is already forgetting the last supposed Red wave fiasco. The most you can say is it will be close and any talks about one leading the other is just BS.
Biden will win easily. Trump has lost a lot of independents centrist type dorks. And abortion being illegal has pissed a lot of people off: look at all the votes since roe vs wade was overturned - democrats significantly over-performed in every single one.
counterpoint: at the debates Trump says "i stopped student loans and you restarted them"
To a certain extent but people use the Presidential election to punish the party in power for the shitty economy. Biden is presiding over a shit economy and Trump is ironically the memory of a better day.
Roe V Wade was overrturned pretty close to the midterms so I don't think it's going to have the same effect 2 years later. Plus, Trump could very easily say "Biden is doing nothing, look at his record, he isn't even pro-choice."
Lastly, I think some general rat-fuckery in the favor of Trump is bound to happen in some states he may have lost otherwise.
Nobody's excited about Biden, and that will hurt his turnout. Trump people are fucking stoked. If Biden does win, it won't be easy and it won't be by a lot.