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this post was submitted on 11 Feb 2024
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Showerthoughts
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If you're a fallacious gambler, maybe.
The probability of rolling a six is 1/6 no matter what numbers were rolled previously. Unless I'm misunderstanding your point
Unless you start adding extra mass to one side, ie adding more things to your life that this could happen to.
We are discussing independent probabilistic events, at least that was my understanding. Dice are just a nice intuitive example.
I'm not understanding something. Why is there a timer on the event and why does a timer increase the probability as time runs out? Wouldn't it be the opposite because there are less chances for it to happen as time runs out?
statistics are statistics
I should have clarified this in the post; i had electric cars and scooters(record breaking sales where i live) in mind when i originally had the thoughtRegarding electric scooters, I'm not really sure what bits there are to be flipped, which could cause issues. My understanding is that when you hit the brakes for example, that electrical signal is sent directly to the brakes, and there's not a digital buffer of inputs which are stored to memory to be read, which is where a bit flip could happen. I assume braking and acceleration are analog voltages on the wire, so a brief cosmic ray would be miniscule and probably not noticeable.
Perhaps there is regenerative braking. Harder braking requires activation of disc brakes. If the battery is too full to safely dump energy into, disk brakes would be needed. All of which requires some amount of sensors and logic procrssing.
But, all that is moot. Bit flips are known about, any decent system with life critical aspects will be designed with this in mind.
Its the cheap shit ya gotta worry about
Like bamboo said; electric scooters aren't digital
Since the set of all remaining time only shrinks, the possibility of anything ever happening at least once in all time should also shrink unless it already happened.
And things happening at a rate per second doesn't mean it increases either if it hasn't happened yet. The probability of me being eaten by a dinosaur today is definitely not higher compared to being eaten by a dinosaur yesterday.