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If Russia is like the US with trump, then there’s the active population who are supporting Putin, because even if he’s a bastard, at least he hurts the right people. Then there’s an apathetic horde, who don’t care or are too beaten down to do anything. Then there’s the group that know what’s up and wants change.
The question is if Navalny’s death meant anything. The people who care are already at a disadvantage because of the authoritarian State, the supporters aren’t going to change, and the apathetic don’t have time to care. IMO he would have been better off, alive, outside of Russia and criticizing Putin.
What you said could be true of any event, but reality is, each of these events influence apathetic people to either become supporters of the regime or anti-establishment.
At least, that's my theory. If not, there would never have been any progress in human society, if things are as static as you theorized.
I think the point is, that he might have been able to influence more, if he was alive, and maybe even free, outside of Russia
I think progress comes from young people, not apathetic people who have had changes of heart.
Apathetic parents lead to angry kids, angry kids look for answers. Some of them will find the right ones.
Apathy is not age related; it is a state of mind. You have very energetic grown ups, and very apathetic youth and visa versa.
I don’t imply society is in a permanent static state, my question is if Navalny’s demise would effect any meaningful change to the status quo.
Russia is not like the US under Donald John. There are indeed rabid supporters of Putin and Russian imperialism ("vatniks"), but the regime functions regardless of popular support.
You are right about what groups of people exist. You are, however, completely mistaken about their importance if you compare Russia to the US under Trump.
My understanding, which is based in large part on my personal experience and observation of the size of protests (statistics suck when dictatorships are involved), is that the vast majority of Russians dislike Putin, but they believe that there is nothing that can be done at the moment.
Doomerism is very strong in Russia. Our prevailing mentality is to suck it up and keep going. It pains me to say this, but in the current conditions of Russia, the doomers have a point.