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‘Migrant Crime Wave’ Not Supported by Data, Despite High-Profile Cases
(www.nytimes.com)
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this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2024
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It's the only data publicly available so any defects would effect the NYT article as well as my comment. I'm making a good faith effort to explore their conclusion, this isn't meant to be a "Migrants Bad" comment.
There is no "might". A straight comparison of all 7 categories from 2019 through 2022 shows a MARKED increase. This isn't even debatable.
You can clearly see by comparing the 2021 and 2022 columns in my first link that crime took a BIG jump in 2022. Then in 2023 we have two big changes in a span of just 45 days; in February NYC removed many of its COVID restrictions and then barely 6 weeks later in April the Migrants started show up by the literal bus load..
The question I have ATM is where can I find a month by month breakdown for 2022, because that will show us when the crime increase actually started and allow us to judge that timing against migrant arrival, and then the same thing for all of 2023 so we can do a direct MtM comparison between the two.
Right now if I had to guess I'd say that much of the 2022 and 2023 crime increase was actually driven by post-pandemic socioeconomic conditions, it just so happens that the the migrant wave happened at the same time making it easy to conflate the two. However the data that's easily available from CompStat doesn't have sufficient resolution to tell for sure.