Changing your assessment from "a few years" to "ten years" makes it more likely China could catch up, sure, and is very different from what you originally said.

I haven't made the claim you think it's easy, I said that the technical challenges the Chinese are facing developing new chip technologies are not at all the same challenges as your example of Japanese developing better methods for manufacturing common global products.

Reorganizing the company error-reporting structure, like Japan did with Toyota, is not going to help China develop advanced chips.

Modern chipmaking is a task orders of magnitude more difficult working with technologies orders of magnitude smaller, with a minute and unique knowledge and manufacturing base aware of Chinese corporate statecraft and committed to not leaking their newest processes. Those sources also have the best research teams and research development technology globally.

The technology is not linear. They cannot continue making smaller chips following an iterative, logical process and throwing more man hours at it. If the sanctions remain effective and China is unable to pull off a stunning degree of corporate statecraft, they will have to come up with entirely new processes on the atomic scale.

"It is going to happen."

What is? China matching TSMC's current chipmaking capabilities, at which point TSMC will be years ahead again?

It conceivably could, in your new timeline of a decade rather than the few years you predicted earlier.

Must it? Not at all.