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China drops 'peaceful reunification' reference to Taiwan
(www.reuters.com)
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this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2024
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Why would this be the case? They can prepare in secret.
The largest sea based invasion force in all of human history? In secret?
Pearl Harbour 2: Commie Boogaloo
Against the Taiwanese? They aren't the ones bringing a big stonking navy in, and attacking the US directly is...well it's about as smart as attacking the US directly was when Japan did Pearl Harbor.
D-Day was a surprise largest sea based invasion force in all of human history.
It wasn't a surprise, it was a misdirection
China can't pretend they're actually planning to attack Calais and Norway
Also, the Germans didn't even know radar was a thing at that point I'm pretty sure Taiwan has Radar scoping out the entire chinese coastline at this point
Surprise to whom?
Hitler
The Germans were aware of the invasion, you can't hide an invasion force that large. It's physically impossible the only thing hidden was the landing sites. Which like, yeah, that's just hiding plans. Not buildup
D-day was a surprise location, not a surprise attack.
They never talk about how the allies evaded detection by the German's satellite network, comprehensive radar imaging, and observers with access to a global information network that can send messages any ware in the world in fractions of a second.
China would need to secure air superiority or any invasion is bound to fail.
Ukraine basically shut down Russian air attacks with two Patriot batteries (increased to three in the past few months). Taiwan has at least seven, and they cover less land area. They're also fully outfitted with F-16s, and will probably be getting the F-35.
I'm no Chinese war strategist but that's a full-war problem, presumably they have a plan for that and I don't see any reason why it would need to be a plan that takes months of visible effort to prep for.
China has to spread their planes around to secure their large border. Especially around India, Japan, and Korea. Vietnam is also looking more and more like a US ally (as strange as that sounds historically).
To invade Taiwan, they have to dedicate more planes to that region, and that's not something they can do secretly. It's not just moving the planes themselves, either. Fuel has to be supplied. So do spare parts. Those runway hangers are going to get filled. More mechanics have to be brought in and housed. Logistics is boring, but it's really, really important. This is all going to show up very clearly to anyone with spy satellites.
Even so, we had Russian forces gathering on the border with Ukraine as Zelensky himself said the US was being paranoid for saying they were going to invade. Some level of movement may be seen but dismissed as posturing. China regularly masses ships in the South China Sea and does war exercises.
And, they have years to plan. If they open a new air base close to Taiwan next year and fill it with planes and parts, they don't have to move them into place 5 years later when they actually use them against Taiwan.
Again, I don't know anything. But months of warning seems like a lot.
After Ukraine, I don't think Taiwan is going to make that same mistake.