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this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2024
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Victoria Nuland herself went there after they kicked out the French to try and ensure they didn't do the same to the US.
The real question is, how will the US react? And how successful will that be? Losing Africa would be bad. If their whole strategy regarding China is decoupling, friendshoring away from it, sanctions, blockades on high tech imports or exports then a key part of that would be denying them access to key minerals and raw resources which China needs to supply their high tech industries. They've already blown the Russia angle, China will have access to Russia's resources at low prices for the foreseeable future but if they lose Africa too not only does China gain their resources, they get to invest in Africa, have a market in Africa, sideline the meaningfulness of US and European decoupling from China.
French troops left when they couldn't get their baguettes and croissants, Americans are a bit more stubborn as in infestation and are sometimes willing to put on extreme shows of air-based resupply to their forces.
No doubt they will try to put an end to this. The next few years will be critical and telling. The US will try and use tools, whether corrupt officers to overthrow and coup the current leadership and install western friendly puppets or ISIS extremists to destabilize the country or an African Union back, NATO assisted invasion.
I know China still wants to put off conflict with the west but they need to play a bit more of their game. Just as the US is arming and training the separatists in Taiwan, maybe it's time for China to sign a defense transfer and training agreement with these countries. Send the PLA over there officially to "train" their forces, give them very generous long-term loan payment plans on weapons systems, etc. The US is kind of time-limited in that their language has been about needing to restore democratic rule. So they will probably try and do something before the leadership can hold elections, either to sway those elections or to remove them from power because once they're elected freely even if the US declares the elections rigged (they will) it makes the whole thing look optically worse.
That is the big question, but US is getting spread pretty darn thin at this point. It's not clear that US would be able to hold on to Niger by force especially if Mali and Burkina Faso are supporting them.
I think they're spread too thin too + election year. I would bet that they will try to convince one of their neocolonies in africa to do a military intervention, it's what they're doing in Haiti.
They already tried using ECOWAS right after the coup, and that fell apart. It's unlikely they'd have better luck with it a second time around.
They be racking up the Ls, its so satisfying.
Election, schmelection. The Pantomime won't change the bastards in the pentagon and Langley. Those will continue to operate, regardless of whose face is on TV
The elections do disrupt the political leadership of the country somewhat
Yes, and no. The US still has a massive pool of might to pull from hypothetically, the issue is a cultural rejection towards putting boots on the ground among the civilian population. Without a VERY convincing narrative, a significant portion of the zoomers will become radicalized… and they know that.
Right there is a political aspect to it, but the massive pool of might is not by any means unlimited either. US is already involved in multiple conflicts, and the proxy war in Ukraine has definitely taken a big toll. Army recruitment isn't hitting targets, and military production isn't keeping up, these are real problems with no easy solutions. Meanwhile, US still has ambitions to try and contain China somehow.
Anyone want to place bets on when they reintroduce tye draft?
I hope they do.
The day they reintroduce the draft is the day we reintroduce fragging.
Gonna be a really hard sell.
I also think that the people of African nations learned their decolonization lesson once - the Five Eyes need to be blinded for any individual liberation to succeed. I don't think they're operating on the same dimensions as the first push 50 years ago. I think they've been building their counterintelligence capabilities and creating operating space that the Five Eyes can't access, and they're likely doing it with Russian and Chinese support as those two have been at the forefront of countering Western intelligence efforts
Regarding training, Russia/Wagner is already there technically doing this I believe