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this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2024
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Victoria Nuland herself went there after they kicked out the French to try and ensure they didn't do the same to the US.
The real question is, how will the US react? And how successful will that be? Losing Africa would be bad. If their whole strategy regarding China is decoupling, friendshoring away from it, sanctions, blockades on high tech imports or exports then a key part of that would be denying them access to key minerals and raw resources which China needs to supply their high tech industries. They've already blown the Russia angle, China will have access to Russia's resources at low prices for the foreseeable future but if they lose Africa too not only does China gain their resources, they get to invest in Africa, have a market in Africa, sideline the meaningfulness of US and European decoupling from China.
French troops left when they couldn't get their baguettes and croissants, Americans are a bit more stubborn as in infestation and are sometimes willing to put on extreme shows of air-based resupply to their forces.
No doubt they will try to put an end to this. The next few years will be critical and telling. The US will try and use tools, whether corrupt officers to overthrow and coup the current leadership and install western friendly puppets or ISIS extremists to destabilize the country or an African Union back, NATO assisted invasion.
I know China still wants to put off conflict with the west but they need to play a bit more of their game. Just as the US is arming and training the separatists in Taiwan, maybe it's time for China to sign a defense transfer and training agreement with these countries. Send the PLA over there officially to "train" their forces, give them very generous long-term loan payment plans on weapons systems, etc. The US is kind of time-limited in that their language has been about needing to restore democratic rule. So they will probably try and do something before the leadership can hold elections, either to sway those elections or to remove them from power because once they're elected freely even if the US declares the elections rigged (they will) it makes the whole thing look optically worse.
Regarding training, Russia/Wagner is already there technically doing this I believe