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this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2024
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With the assumption the article makes that China is already at 138% of America's GDP, and they were at parity only a few years ago, it isn't a stretch to believe that by 2035 they will be at 200%; they're already 38% of the way there.
A lot of the U.S.'s claimed GDP is, like others have said, fiscal smoke and mirrors. Stuff like including landowners "virtual rent" they pay to themselves for the use of their own real estate.
The way it's calculated now, GDP is kind of nonsense. Let's imagine a hypothetical duo of countries whose entire economy is oranges. In one, $1b of oranges are harvested, brought to farmers markets, and sold. In the other, $1b of oranges are harvested by one company, bought by a factory who peels them and sticks them in plastic cups, and then bought by a store that sells them to the ultimate consumer. Despite both getting $1b of oranges into peoples' stomaches, the first country has a GDP of $1b, while the second has a GDP of $3b (or more, since these entities are likely upcharging along the way).