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this post was submitted on 18 Apr 2024
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Asklemmy
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Russia doesn't need to capture western Ukraine, and I think it's highly unlikely they would try to do that. A far more likely scenario is that Russia will continue attrition of the Ukrainian army until it collapses. Then it will take over most of Ukraine, dictate terms to whatever rump state is left in western Ukraine.
There is no scenario where Ukraine is going to be in a position of any strength here. The longer the war continues the more manpower Ukraine loses and ultimately the worse the terms are going to be in the end.
It's also worth mentioning that whatever is left of west Ukraine will become entirely dependent on the west creating a huge economic drain on Europe at the threat of a huge refugee crisis if this state collapses. This is a nightmare scenario for Europe where the economy is already going into a recession.
But at some point, the Ukraine government will see the writing on the wall, and shift to some form of guerilla warfare. That's a lot harder to deal with.
I agree with the rest. I just feel that Russia will want at least a neutral buffer state in (western) Ukraine, and that they'll eventually offer some concessions in return for Ukraine not joining NATO / hosting NATO missiles / sabotaging Russian and eastern Ukrainian infrastructure. At that point, Ukraine might be able to get a decent deal if they still have some military strength and diplomatic support left.
The thing is that the current regime in Ukraine doesn't have much support hence why they cancelled elections. It's also worth noting that most people in Ukraine didn't really want to have a war with Russia. Zelensky originally ran on a platform of peace and implementing Minsk.
Guerrilla warfare requires support from general public who provide supplies for the partisans, hide them, and so on. I don't see that being the case in Ukraine. It's also worth noting that Russia managed to avoid this scenario in Chechnya already. In fact, Chechens are now fighting along side Russia in Ukraine. Looking at slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 is illustrative. First, here's the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:
here's how the election in 2004 went:
this is the 2010 election:
As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided roughly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:
What I expect will happen is that most people in eastern and central Ukraine will just accept being part of Russia going forward. Those who felt strongly against this either fled the country or died fighting because they were motivated to fight. Also worth noting that once it becomes clear that the war is lost there's going to be a huge backlash against the west, since lack of western support will be blamed for it by the hardliners. A lot of weapons that the west flooded into Ukraine disappeared. In fact, CBS did a study at one point that found that only just "30-40%" of the supplies coming across the border reached its final destination. There's no doubt that a lot of these weapons are now in the hands of various far right groups across Europe at this point. Ukrainian nationalist will undoubtedly link up with these groups, and once the war is over they will likely flee to Europe. It's entirely possible that Europe could start seeing the same kind of terrorism that we see in the Middle East after US flooded it with weapons and extremists.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
this lecture
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I see. I know there is an ethnic divide in Ukraine, and ethnic Russians / Russian speakers will probably be okay going forward. I just hope whatever deal is agreed upon isn't completely devastating to the people in western Ukraine. The countries that until now helped Ukraine fight now have a responsibility to help them negotiate and get the best terms they can under their current circumstances.
Right, it is easy to start a fight. Much harder to cleanly end it. These ultranationalists will probably end up pissing off the EU and making things even worse for the people they claim to be fighting for.
The longer this war goes on, the worse the end result will be for whatever is left of Ukraine. What I think is happening is that Biden admin is cynically trying to drag the war out until the election is over.