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this post was submitted on 05 Jun 2024
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Tories becoming a third party will be hilarious
We can gloat now, but I fear that the Tories will veer further right to get back into power.
Every dimension of the world is heating up and everyone is getting desperate.
The common folk are clawing for change and will grasp anything to take back some power. The elites are feeling the walls close in around them and will lash out at any perceived threat to their position.
Once Labour win, we'll have 5 years to prepare for worse times to come, 10 maximum. It's not going to be pretty after that.
I want off this fucking sinking island, before it pulls me under with it. But I fear there's nowhere else to run to, no shelter to ride out the storm. Humanity has never faced the collapse of a global civilization before, and I feel a lot of us will see it happen before we depart this world.
I don't know, I think the Tories veering further and further right is partially what led them to the mess they're in now. I'm hoping that 5 years in opposition, we'll see more moderate Tories come back to the forefront, or, even better, Lib Dems take the mantle as the main opposition party.
But who knows, you may be right. I dread to think we're about to jump off the deep end and end up like US politics.
I think the UK has a lot more swing voters than the US. In the US way too many people are Republican or Democrat people. They will vote for 'their' party or not at all. In the UK it's more fluid and not part of people's identity. Even a raging gammon changes who they vote for, as the Conservatives are finding out. Chasing that vote is losing them moderate votes.
We don't have the same kind of proportional representation, are nearly 100% first-past-the-post, and there are in-built advantages to the two major parties. Because of the shitty system, presidential elections generally necessitate voting for one or the other or the vote is split enough that one of those two that didn't have votes siphoned off wins.
At more local/regional levels, there are other parties out there that can be viable. We have primary elections (I'm not sure what the UK equivalent would be) and I know that some people are voting outside of the two main parties there. However, when the actual election comes, it's almost always two candidates and almost always from those two parties so it's voting for the least-worst. It sucks.
I think two party systems and FPTP need to go. In both UK and the US.
What I favour is Mixed Member Proportional Representation. Like NewZealand and Germany. But I want it PR mixed with Score/Range voting rather than FPTP.
The UK also needs decentralizing and federating. Maybe break up England into units similar to Scotland, Wales and NI.
We tried, but the same party now bleating that a Labour supermajority would be bad for the country was then obsessing over the cost of having better voting, thought we needed more bullteproof vests and incubators, and that majority governments made countries stronger.
I don't expect it to come up for review again under the other party in our two party system. What we were being offered wasn't fantastic, but it was better than what we had, and will be used as a stick to beat anybody calling for another referendum into submission.
They can go as far to the right as they want while being in opposition, but if they want any gleam of power they will have to come back to the centre. Look at Labour with Corbyn and Labour today, it will be the same but on the opposite side. They’ll have a year or 2 with some hard right policies, realise it’s not working, then get a more sane leader in when the election window gets closer.
I think you’re being generous with your time there, people have short memories, let’s not forget Labour aren’t exactly winning on merit here but more “the least worst option”, they’ll have a honeymoon period of about 2 years before people ask “why are things still bad??”
I predict they will formally merge with Reform UK during the next election cycle. Too much money behind them for them to just disappear into the political wilderness.
Yeah, if there's one thing you can count on it's the left fracturing and conservatives having class solidarity.
Nice thought. But that will never happen with our rotten FPTP system
It's unlikely but it actually could happen if tactical voting is used. Remember tactical voting is the Achilles tendon of the first pass the post system. It assumes that people won't figure it out and won't vote accordingly and historically that was true but now that's changing. Mostly because the conservatives have become utterly reprehensible.
Previously they were at least moderately acceptable and so people put up with them