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this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2023
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I’m not sure what Russia’s options are here, beyond creating hazards to navigation. They certainly can’t fire on a foreign flagged ship. The P-8 they have monitoring it is signaling that the US is potentially prepared to respond in real time. In addition, attacking a foreign-flagged civilian vessel, especially one so clearly identified, would be a very dangerous gambit with a low payoff and potentially lethally high cost. It’s not even the Israelis. It’s that the world might become involved if it’s the straw that broke the camel’s back about Russia being a rogue nation that needs to be contained before the conflagration spreads.
I don’t even think they can mine the harbor at this point. That ship sailed, no pun intended. Mining the harbor at this point could be interpreted as an attack on this vessel.
If they can present a physical blockade such that the Israeli shipment (the ship is not Israeli flagged btw, but that’s not unusual), they might be able to do it. That’s easier said than done, because they’d have to do so at sea out of range of Ukrainian weapon systems.
The article mentioned the Poseidon providing security but what can it really do? If something happens it will just monitor the status as I thought those didn’t even have weapons.
Poseidon would be able to say: "right before the Israeli grain ship was struck, exploded and sunk, we tracked an alpha class sub that entered from X direction a Y speed. We saw it discharge 2 torpedoes and seconds later the grain ship exploded. We then tracked the sub as it turned back to Sevastopol. Here you can see in the pictures as it surfaced before entering the harbor."
Russia would have attacked a civilian transport of Israel live on camera. Countries take action with things like that.
Israel isn't big on turning the other cheek. They would absolutely retaliate for the destruction of that grain hauler.
I think my expectations are just super low on a real response. Moscow is pretty notorious for doing dumb shit and then waiting to see what happens. I really struggle to envision a NATO asset firing on a Russian vessel…no matter how egregious the Russian activity.
They're armed with missiles and torpedoes, among other things.
You don't need to think about what options Russia has, you need to think about how mentally unstable Putin is.