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this post was submitted on 12 Jul 2024
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chapotraphouse
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THAT'S NOT HOW BAYESIAN REASONING WORKS THE PRESIDENT IS NOT A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION IF YOU DO NOTHING ELSE AT LEAST READ THE DANG WIKIPEDIA ARTICLE
Get is his ass, BodyBySisyphus.
ONE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS IS THAT YOU ARE ABLE TO UPDATE YOUR INITIAL HYPOTHESIS ABOUT HOW A POPULATION OF INTEREST IS DISTRIBUTED BASED ON NEW INFORMATION. THUS, YOU DON'T CONFIRM YOUR PRIORS, YOU UPDATE THEM IN RESPONSE TO INFORMATION DERIVED FROM A SAMPLE (WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A SYSTEMATIC SET OF MEASUREMENTS OF MORE THAN ONE THING AND HAS NOT, NOR HAS IT EVER BEEN, WHAT A JOURNALIST SEES ON A TV SHOW), AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU UPDATE THEM REVEALS INFORMATION ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THOSE INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS. TO STATE THAT YOU ARE CONFIRMING YOUR PRIORS IS TO REVEAL THAT YOU NEVER INTENDED TO REVISIT YOUR ASSUMPTIONS IN THE FIRST PLACE AND ARE INCAPABLE OF REASONING, NOT ENGAGING IN IT.
I'd have to disagree there. Biden is clearly a quantum waveform with only a 2% probability of being in our reality.
Touché. How do we collapse it so it resolves into the absence of Biden?
You have to continuously observe Biden after observed to be absent. This is trivially done due to the low probability of being observed to be present. Unfortunately, without immediate intervention, if Biden is allowed to go unobserved, he will resume quantum indeterminacy.