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Japan and China resume strategic dialogue after 4 years
(asia.nikkei.com)
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this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2024
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I wonder if the collapse in the dem party might've acted as a catalyst for the decision. I can only imagine that US vassals are in a complete state of panic right now because they're realizing that US is in a deep political crisis.
It had to be clear before Biden stepped down, no?
I'd argue this goes beyond Biden. I imagine everyone realized Biden was gone, but it was also pretty clear that he wasn't making any decisions personally. What's freaking people out now is that there's an open civil war unfolding within the party, and it's becoming increasingly clear that republicans are likely to win the election. The wing of the republican party that's gaining momentum is openly isolationist and protectionist which is very bad news for the vassals.
@redtea@lemmygrad.ml
Yeah, I dunno. This feels like textbook Democrat incompetence, which to me says it's stage . managed with marginal players like Harris, AOC and Bernie getting little and incorrect guidance and Obama, Pelosi, and Biden setting the stage for each new move. It's somewhat convenient that Biden didn't resign until the Republican VP pick. It's also sort of telling that Vance was given almost zero notice, which to me says cross-party stage management as Biden's resignation needed to hit a timeline, he needed to make an endorsement, and the endorsement was going to be dependent on the Republican VP pick.
I think we need to look at this from the perspective of relationships between Japanese leaders and USA leaders, not between Japanese leaders and the USA media circus.
Japanese leaders, based on some of their actions over the last year, seem to be of two minds: pro-USA and pro-China/anti-imperialism. This is likely the result of a combination of disparate ideologies among leaders but also different relationships with USA leadership. There are likely USA leaders saying "stay the course, we are still in control" and other leaders saying "buckle up, pay your way, defend yourself, we won't come to your aid, you will come to ours".
I think Biden represents the former and Trump represents the latter. Who is (s)elected will likely be stage managed by the geopolitical strategists about which way the winds of history are blowing. So when Biden bows out, it's likely part of a larger relationship understanding in Japanese leadership that this means the USA strategy is shifting towards command and control to defend its interests and the expense of vassals. This makes already existing Japanese leadership theories about decoupling more ascendant.
But ya know. It's all speculation
I imagine Japanese politicians are primarily concerned about long term economic stability. If US is seen to be an unstable partner, then it makes sense that they would want to start making diplomatic overtures to China now. The media circus is itself a symptom of internal political instability I would argue. The whole thing exudes profound incompetence on the part of the US political class.
A related aspect here is the whole economic/tech war with China that US drumming up. It puts countries like Japan in a very difficult position because they're so dependent on China for trade. For example, something like 40% of Japanese chips go to China. When US announced that they're going to force companies using US tech to stop selling chips to China Micron stock dropped nearly 10%. Going along with that would be economic suicide. What's worse is that this encourages China to just develop their own domestic tech, and once that's done they have no need for imports regardless of what the political situation is going to look like. In fact, they're likely to become a competitor to Japan at that point. And this is just one sector of the economy.
So, I think there's a combination of fear of political instability within the US along with a concern over US geopolitical games having a negative impact on Japan's economy.
Hahahahhaahahhah... there is? Over what exactly?
Besides, whatever inter-party conflict this is, it's going be a swift moment before it is crushed
I don't see one... you mean the one that wants to destroy Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and China, in foreign policy rhetoric...
Other than that, the latter part of your sentences is fine overall...
Basically over who gets to run the party. It's pretty clear that the Biden faction did not want him to go, and then there was a really concentrated push in the media after the debate that set the stage for forcing him out. Even the way he did it was absolutely bizarre where there was no actual reason given, and no televised statement or anything. He's also not resigning as the president so far, which undermines Harris if she's going to be the nominee.
There also seems to be a split on endorsements for Harris with Pelosi and Obama holding out. Yet, it's not even clear whom else they could possible run at this point. I'm personally expecting things to get even more wild going forward.
Vance directly said that US can't fight every war all the time, so it's a pretty clear sign that they will be picking their battles. Wanting to destroy their adversaries isn't at odds with picking and choosing their battles.
The signs were there but they're not obvious to everyone maybe. Especially if they don't want to see them. Now it's hard to pretend otherwise. (Although some are still managing it!)
I feel like that's how dilettantes manage affairs. World leaders usually have strategists working on contingencies even for things that don't have evidence, let alone shit that's been telegraphed for 4 years.