I wonder if the collapse in the dem party might've acted as a catalyst for the decision. I can only imagine that US vassals are in a complete state of panic right now because they're realizing that US is in a deep political crisis.
It had to be clear before Biden stepped down, no?
I'd argue this goes beyond Biden. I imagine everyone realized Biden was gone, but it was also pretty clear that he wasn't making any decisions personally. What's freaking people out now is that there's an open civil war unfolding within the party, and it's becoming increasingly clear that republicans are likely to win the election. The wing of the republican party that's gaining momentum is openly isolationist and protectionist which is very bad news for the vassals.
Yeah, I dunno. This feels like textbook Democrat incompetence, which to me says it's stage . managed with marginal players like Harris, AOC and Bernie getting little and incorrect guidance and Obama, Pelosi, and Biden setting the stage for each new move. It's somewhat convenient that Biden didn't resign until the Republican VP pick. It's also sort of telling that Vance was given almost zero notice, which to me says cross-party stage management as Biden's resignation needed to hit a timeline, he needed to make an endorsement, and the endorsement was going to be dependent on the Republican VP pick.
I think we need to look at this from the perspective of relationships between Japanese leaders and USA leaders, not between Japanese leaders and the USA media circus.
Japanese leaders, based on some of their actions over the last year, seem to be of two minds: pro-USA and pro-China/anti-imperialism. This is likely the result of a combination of disparate ideologies among leaders but also different relationships with USA leadership. There are likely USA leaders saying "stay the course, we are still in control" and other leaders saying "buckle up, pay your way, defend yourself, we won't come to your aid, you will come to ours".
I think Biden represents the former and Trump represents the latter. Who is (s)elected will likely be stage managed by the geopolitical strategists about which way the winds of history are blowing. So when Biden bows out, it's likely part of a larger relationship understanding in Japanese leadership that this means the USA strategy is shifting towards command and control to defend its interests and the expense of vassals. This makes already existing Japanese leadership theories about decoupling more ascendant.
But ya know. It's all speculation
I imagine Japanese politicians are primarily concerned about long term economic stability. If US is seen to be an unstable partner, then it makes sense that they would want to start making diplomatic overtures to China now. The media circus is itself a symptom of internal political instability I would argue. The whole thing exudes profound incompetence on the part of the US political class.
A related aspect here is the whole economic/tech war with China that US drumming up. It puts countries like Japan in a very difficult position because they're so dependent on China for trade. For example, something like 40% of Japanese chips go to China. When US announced that they're going to force companies using US tech to stop selling chips to China Micron stock dropped nearly 10%. Going along with that would be economic suicide. What's worse is that this encourages China to just develop their own domestic tech, and once that's done they have no need for imports regardless of what the political situation is going to look like. In fact, they're likely to become a competitor to Japan at that point. And this is just one sector of the economy.
So, I think there's a combination of fear of political instability within the US along with a concern over US geopolitical games having a negative impact on Japan's economy.
I imagine everyone realized Biden was gone, but it was also pretty clear that he wasn’t making any decisions personally. What’s freaking people out now is that there’s an open civil war unfolding within the party,
Hahahahhaahahhah... there is? Over what exactly?
Besides, whatever inter-party conflict this is, it's going be a swift moment before it is crushed
The wing of the republican party that’s gaining momentum is openly isolationist and protectionist which is very bad news for the vassals.
I don't see one... you mean the one that wants to destroy Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and China, in foreign policy rhetoric...
Other than that, the latter part of your sentences is fine overall...
Hahahahhaahahhah… there is? Over what exactly?
Basically over who gets to run the party. It's pretty clear that the Biden faction did not want him to go, and then there was a really concentrated push in the media after the debate that set the stage for forcing him out. Even the way he did it was absolutely bizarre where there was no actual reason given, and no televised statement or anything. He's also not resigning as the president so far, which undermines Harris if she's going to be the nominee.
There also seems to be a split on endorsements for Harris with Pelosi and Obama holding out. Yet, it's not even clear whom else they could possible run at this point. I'm personally expecting things to get even more wild going forward.
I don’t see one… you mean the one that wants to destroy Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and China, in foreign policy rhetoric…
Vance directly said that US can't fight every war all the time, so it's a pretty clear sign that they will be picking their battles. Wanting to destroy their adversaries isn't at odds with picking and choosing their battles.
The signs were there but they're not obvious to everyone maybe. Especially if they don't want to see them. Now it's hard to pretend otherwise. (Although some are still managing it!)
I feel like that's how dilettantes manage affairs. World leaders usually have strategists working on contingencies even for things that don't have evidence, let alone shit that's been telegraphed for 4 years.
Just the other day I joked about Japan joining BRICS and this could be one step in that direction.
Now I'm wondering what would be the first ex-US state to join. lol
Either way, it will be interesting to see what happens with Taiwan as the US is turning its focus on China. Although unlikely I guess we can't rule out conflict starting not because of Taiwan being used against China but due to Taiwan going back to China and the US not liking it, even if it takes a decade.
It's really hard to predict the future when things are so "chaotic".
Very much agree with the last part, geopolitics is becoming highly volatile now and it's hard to make any predictions regarding how things will develop in the near term. That said, I do think that the collapse of the global hegemony centred on the US is irreversible at this point. The question is what shape it will take in practical terms.
I said about a year ago that the first two countries to leave the US sphere of influence would probably be France or Japan. Japan has good relations with Brazil (biggest Japanese disporia in the world) and India, but has border conflicts with China and Russia, as well as admitting the war crimes Japan committed against the Chinese.
I would say that Saudi Arabia are the first as they have already begun the process of re-orientation. They are still trying to play both sides for the time being, but it's clear which way the wind is blowing. And i think the next to leave the US sphere of influence will be Turkey.
Another one to keep an eye on is Pakistan where it is quite likely that Imran Khan and his party could make a return to power despite the best efforts of the US puppet government and the military to neutralize him as a political force. And he may be even more inclined to align with Russia and China now.
I am more pessimistic about Japan and France. Japan is too occupied by the US to really have a choice, and France's political class is just too Atlanticist, plus they're in the EU which is another layer of US control that they would have to break before being free to realign.
ain't no way japan joins while they're occupied by the US. simply no way.
Japanese Communist Party in shambles
How so, Cubano?
The JCP has really good internal politics for Japan like recognizing their War Crimes, LGBTQ+ Rights, Workers Rights, Republicanism and Democratic Socialism.
But their foreign policy is garbage. They hate the USSR, and used to support China. Since 2004, they decide to tone down their Republicanism and begin to attack the CPC and PRC.
Always... yk what I realize... the salvation of a political party includes its foreign policy
And if its foreign policy is shit... well, ye might as well pound sand.