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this post was submitted on 09 Aug 2024
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politics
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they're neck-and-neck in the polls; how do you think that this will happen?
is it because you're one of those people who disregard polls?
Polls are going to be skewed tpwards the people that answer the phone calls from random phone numbers flagged Spam or Political.
How many have called you this cycle? How many did you answer?
i've seen spam calls, but i've never seen political before and i suspect my demographic data will guarantee that i will never get a phone call from a poll worker.
They didn't start for me until after I turned 45. Not sure what to make of that, if anything.
if it does mean anything it would suggest that i'm right about my demographics precluding a call since it should have started a few years ago; if 45 is the magic age for it.
My number probably made it onto a few lists last couple election cycles from donations and petition support, and that might be more likely than age. But we are talking about the racist states of america so it's entriely possible the difference is out demographics...which is stupid and infuriating, but silver lining: good for you without the extra calls to ignore?
that seems to further confirm my suspicions since i have been donating since 1996.
worst silver lining ever since the suffering endured by people with similar demographics have at the hands of democrats and republicans alike (especially biden) is less stupid and infuriating than the shitlibs on the fediverse and reddit that brand you privileged for pointing any of this out; no matter how much you've suffered.
There's prediction markets and bookies making odds as well. People putting money on the line are probably a little more accurate than polls by themselves. Looks like people think the odds currently favor Harris, but not by a large margin. 50.9% chance for Harris and 47.1% for Trump (https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/08/09/harris-has-vaulted-past-trump-as-the-bookies-favorite-to-win-presidential-election/). IIRC, prediction markets significantly favored Clinton in 2016 right before the results came back though.
HERE you go, buddy.
Everyone else, ignore polls, and just VOTE.
i don't doubt that polls can be wrong; i asked my question because i was confused by the other poster's position
Polls skew to the right. You should expect to see a few safe red states flip to blue. This is the first presidential election since J6, and the first since roe was overturned. A lot of centrists, and even Republicans are just fucking sick of seeing and hearing Donald Trump. And not to mention most people only voted for Biden because he wasn't trump, not because they were enthusiastic about Biden. That's also different this election. Not to mention project 2025, and Donald's credible threats of dictatorship. He lost in 2020 and it's only going to be more lopsided this time.
this has been a thing since 1980 and it's bonkers that we only just now started caring about it, but it makes sense that no one brought it up during an election year since biden has been one of its biggest proponents; like he voted against anti-gay marriage in 1996; bragged about creating the student loan debt law he created in 2005; expressed pride at supporting segregationists during the 2020 election; very publicly told anita hill to stop complaining and shut up about sexual harassment from clarence thomas in 1991; and advocated against letting lgbtq in federal service from 1972 to 2012.
it's a VERY good thing he's not in the race anymore because now the candidates are actually different from each other now.
And it will continue to be a thing. They'll keep trying. But we need to keep people aware that they won't stop trying. But their ranks will continue to fall. We just need to do what we can to make sure that we do all we can to help that process along.
For what it's worth, Biden has grown and moved left over the course of his political career, and that's a good thing. We should give credit where it's due. Yeah, he wasn't perfect by any means, but he did save democracy for another 4 years. If we need to fight it 4 years at a time, so be it. But he did a good job with what he had vs the expectations. He got a lot done considering what he was working against, and honestly I'm proud of him for it. That being said, we need to move on to continue to progress.
biden et. al along w the republicans have enacted nearly 75% of project 2025's recommendations since 1980.
biden is currently making the wrong decision; it's seriously fucking up people's lives; and there's literally allies and opponents alike telling him he's making the wrong choice (as he has done before in the examples i cited earlier); but he's still ignoring all the advice and all the evidence and continuing support the genocide, no matter what the cost and damage it's doing (again as he had done in the examples i cited earlier).
biden has not grown or moved; the issues have.
I take polls under advisement, though recent years have definitely demonstrated that there are issues with them. Regardless of their veracity, though, they are subject to shifting as time goes on.
they're supposed to shift and that's why it's called polling; you're taking action to measure that shift, if any/
Uh, no, that is not why they are called polls.
Yes to them being supposed to shift though.
i'm not referring to the etymology of the word and your response seems to conflict with your previous post.
your previous post says:
and this post says:
If you're not referring to the etymology, then why did you bring up why they are called polls?
No, I said I take them under advisement. This is an in-between stance between trusting them completely and discarding them completely. This is preferable to any sort of purist, absolutist position that would not be able to keep up with a world where things can change.