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this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2023
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The mere fact he's still likely to win the next election is such an embarassment. I'm not American but it's genuinely worrying if you're European too. You just know he'll cave to Russia within days of being elected.
If you're Ukrainian it's horrible. Putin has no motive to stop the war till after the election. If Trump wins, he'll do his best to fuck over Ukraine and help Putin.
And I know there's a sizeable amount of Trump supporters in Taiwan and Trump likes to go on about being tough on China, but given Trump admires Xi, those in power have got to be worried about the prospect of a second Trump term too.
On the plus side, I hope that Europe has finally realized we can't rely on the US, and need to rebuild our defense industry. Obviously, that doesn't necessarily serve US interests, as we may be forced to side with China on certain issues against a beligerent US administration.
Where are you getting this "fact that he's likely to win" ? He didn't win the last one and he's worse off this time. Also there are loads of new voters who are finally old enough to vote that are sick of all the anti-abortion anti-LGBTQ stuff the right has been pushing the last 4 years. If you regurgitate that rhetoric it's more likely to happen.
Aggregated polling data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
Trump is invariably within the margin of error. Add a bit of election interference, a third candidate to siphon votes, some gerry mandering, a bit of help from a partisan supreme court, ...
I have a related degree.
An important way republicans will try to win the election for Trump, is to target democratic voters with propaganda which suggests that Biden is certain to win or that he's more right wing than he actually is, thereby lowering democratic turnout.
They know they won't convince young voters to vote conservative, they know they won't win majority support, so they'll try to convince progressive to not bother voting at all.
Gerrymandering doesn't affect presidential elections. Only the lower house of Congress and the state legislative branch.