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this post was submitted on 30 Aug 2024
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I’ve been saying since the primaries that the best plausible scenario was for Trump to get the nomination, then botch the election and drag the weirdos and loyalists in his party down with him.
Trump has spent years purging anyone that was moderate, even slightly principled, or just willing to put the good of the country ahead of his gigantic ego. Not to mention the way they treat the party’s warchest as their personal piggy bank, and it’s rank and file staff and volunteers as disposable. He’s made a party that’s blindly loyal to him, and which is a huge threat to the country, but which is ultimately far less effective as a party.
A more normal candidate would likely be dominating the race given public opinion on the current administration and the economy, to say nothing of the obscene amount of money being thrown around. But instead, Trump looks like he will cause the Republicans to underperform for the fourth time in a row.
If Trump loses dramatically enough and drags his people down with him, the party will likely collapse in on itself as opposing factions get locked in a power struggle. Plenty of big donors just want lower taxes and to not have to deal with regulations, and they will probably want to shift the party away from the MAGA weirdness and back towards something normal that isn’t going to alienate voters on all sides of the aisle. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the more prominent anti-trump Republicans suddenly got a big boost in support, and a lot of Trump’s parasites suddenly find themselves getting driven out.
Best scenario for who?
I think the best scenario for everyone is that Trump loses, Dems win Congress control back, and Harris absolutely fucking nails this job and gets another term.
The best scenario is that the Republicans get destroyed so hard they stop being a party, and leftists take over, thus making democrats the right wing of mainstream politics while remaining approximately where they are on policy.
MAGA assholes overtook that party. It's no longer recognized as "Republican". Those assholes should be discharged with absolute hatred.
Fiscal conservatives haven't existed since before Reagan, so that's long dead.
I think it's already been proven that D will fight against leftists way harder than they fight against R. I'll never trust a Republican as long as I live after what the past 8 years have shown me lurks beneath the more polite moderate bigotry and racism they mostly adhered to in the past, but as much as I love the idea that somehow our politics moves left after this, the plethora of cries for Kamala to move to the "center" (or praising her for doing so) has me very skeptical and disheartened that any of the events of recent history or the imminent death knell of Trumpism is going to do anything better than slow our rightward march.
Democrats treat anyone at the Bernie level and beyond like they are some kind of albatross. I don't see that changing.
As with so many of my opinions about the presumed Harris presidency I want to be wrong, but all I see is Dems getting more conservative and R trying (probably successfully) to claim some "Well thank goodness we finally got rid of those jokers" high ground after Trump is gone.
Best scenario probably results in the dissolution of the Republican party, and its key players in jail, dead, or otherwise removed from the political landscape.
But the roots of the problems there- the xenophobia, the tribalism, the (deeply ironic considering some of their slogans) supremacy of feelings over facts - that stuff isn't likely to go away. So even if the Republican party collapsed, there's still plenty of people ready to believe outsiders are bad, climate change isn't real, etc etc.
I don't really know how to fix that. Probably spend 100 years investing in education for all, removing lead and other toxins from the environment, and smashing apart anything that consolidates too much power (eg: Facebook, Sinclair media)
Well, neither party is going to do those things, so we're pretty much fucked. (And that's not a both sides argument, it's just reality.)
At least there's been some anti trust movement lately! The Democratic party is much better about that than the Republican
They are better in every way honestly, but increasingly I'm concluding still not good enough.
Your scenario and mine would go hand in hand, we're just focusing on different things.
My point was that the Republican party would benefit from a significant change in direction back towards something more normal. And the country as a whole would be better off as well, because there aren't many upsides to teetering on the edge of a fascist dictatorship, and anything that moves us away from the precipice is a good thing.