61
submitted 2 months ago by RedWizard@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[-] carpoftruth@hexbear.net 14 points 2 months ago

I'm quite familiar with this story. Nickel was the up and coming commodity in the run up to the 2008 GFC, hitting a high of about 50000$/t at peak. This spurred all kinds of Western interest, like the new caledonia project mentioned in that article as well as a number of others not mentioned. However, as private firms, these companies were all subject to the whims of market fluctuation and by the time nickel had dumped to below 10k/t in 2015, these projects were all generally scrubbed, bankrupt or otherwise distressed. The nickel market has rebounded since then, but increasing supply out of Indonesia and reduced expectation of future demand from changing battery chemistry (less reliance on nickel and cobalt), prices are still low.

The nature of low value add commodity markets like metals is that profit margins are very small and the cost of R&D is very high compared with things like tech. Building a new mine, mineral processing plant and other infrastructure required to process vast amounts of material (railways, electrical capacity, road access, ports) is tremendously expensive at best, even when no innovation is required. When building a new project and doing innovation for a new type of ore (in this case, the low grade lateritic rock in Indonesia), the uncertainty is even more of a killer. A project on the scale of Goro in new caledonia takes 10 years minimum to get off the ground. This is 10+ years of large cash outlays before a dime of revenue.

Long timeframe, low margin, volatile market, high capital intensity, all make this sector relatively unattractive for private capital, hence making it expensive for the private capital that does pursue it. The same factors mean that Chinese firms that can rely on government support (which, compared to private capital, doesn't twist in the wind) have a significant advantage over competitors.

this post was submitted on 10 Sep 2024
61 points (98.4% liked)

news

23555 readers
625 users here now

Welcome to c/news! Please read the Hexbear Code of Conduct and remember... we're all comrades here.

Rules:

-- PLEASE KEEP POST TITLES INFORMATIVE --

-- Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed. --

-- All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. --

-- If you are citing a twitter post as news please include not just the twitter.com in your links but also nitter.net (or another Nitter instance). There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/libredirect/ or archive them as you would any other reactionary source using e.g. https://archive.today . Twitter screenshots still need to be sourced or they will be removed --

-- Mass tagging comm moderators across multiple posts like a broken markov chain bot will result in a comm ban--

-- Repeated consecutive posting of reactionary sources, fake news, misleading / outdated news, false alarms over ghoul deaths, and/or shitposts will result in a comm ban.--

-- Neglecting to use content warnings or NSFW when dealing with disturbing content will be removed until in compliance. Users who are consecutively reported due to failing to use content warnings or NSFW tags when commenting on or posting disturbing content will result in the user being banned. --

-- Using April 1st as an excuse to post fake headlines, like the resurrection of Kissinger while he is still fortunately dead, will result in the poster being thrown in the gamer gulag and be sentenced to play and beat trashy mobile games like 'Raid: Shadow Legends' in order to be rehabilitated back into general society. --

founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS