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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2024
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I don't understand why immigration into China isn't higher. It'd pretty handily address the problems of a "shrinking workforce."
But even that is dumb (in itself). Just unbind pension into simple formula of taxes=(life expectancy -average age of retirement)/(working time). Can even do dumb referendums among workers every 5 years. Want more taxes and earlier retirement or less taxes and higher age? Instead some weird debt vehicles and deficits (and why in fuck its a province question?)
And immigration implies need for constant growth, which why? Not that china shouldn't accept immigrants, but for more humanitarian reasons.
It's less about constant growth now and more about maintenance. As of last year, China's population is declining, meaning over time, their population will be weighted towards the elderly.
Lets say new births stopped in china and everyone under 20 is killed. Every year out of 20-60 (working age cohort) 2.5 percent will retire. If your economy growth is 5 percent you are still golden on maintenance front for like 5-7 years.
New births have not stopped nowhere nearly that badly
What a hypothetical
Because people under 20 only consume (in the social necessary sense), should i make graphs by taking current birth rate+demographic distribution to show that with increasing labor productivity raising retirement age is a pro-porky move to suppress wages?
Is it really true that teenagers don't work in China? I admit that I'm ignorant but surely that can't be right, even if it's just uncompensated labor like helping with the family business or something.
but like realistically what percentage of people work? Say they all work after 17 (thats ignoring universities, whatever), and 20 % of petit bourgeoisie get help from 14 years old children, thats like average age of work start of 16.4.
I dunno, i find weird seeing working 16 year olds, aside from, as you said, manning small shops, maybe
(but i was being flippant for sake of round numbers).
Probably to prevent too many reactionary spies, and troublemakers trying to overthrow the CPC from entering the country
I suppose they need to continue raising the consciousness among the people and adding random migrants means that progress has to contend with even more inputs. A steady state population is easier to actually develop in some ways.