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this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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And here we are, over a week after the debate. They're still harping on Haitian immigrants in 1 town, while Harris is blazing up the campaign trail, yet polls are still concerningly close.
This is how scary this election is becoming
As I recall, in terms of the electoral college, neither Biden nor Harris have, at any point, been projected to beat Trump. It's not "becoming" scary, it's been scary for quite some time.
There's no one single model doing projections.
Five Thirty Eight's, which is one prominent one, has favored Harris somewhat for a while.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Nate Silver -- who started Five Thirty Eight and is now off doing his own thing and runs a fork of the model that Five Thirty Eight used to run -- had them, last I looked, had Harris and Trump at about about even chances.
Both Silver's model and Five Thirty Eight's model agreed that the debate improved Harris's chances.
Important to note that Nate Silver works for Peter Theil, who has donated heavily to Trump pacs, and is responsible for giving us JD Vance.
Do you have a source on Silver working for Thiel?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket
Interesting.
Tl;Dr: Nate Silver is an "advisor" to Polymarket, a gambling platform based on real world events. Peter Thiel is an investor for Polymarket.
It seems like a stretch to say that "Nate Silver works for Thiel," but it's pretty sad to see Nate Silver working for a likely illegal crypto scam.
Nate Silver is a paid advisor to a company that Peter Thiel runs, it's not a stretch at all, wake up.
I do that for a lot of Thiel types. Believe me, I don't work for them, and I'm vocal about my opposite values from them
The Wikipedia link above mentions nothing about that. Do you have a different source?
Nah, just pointing out a possible conflict of interest.
So "Peter Thiel runs Polymarket" is a fact that you made up?
Nah you're right it's just a billionaire funding a company that just coincidentally hired Nate. Nothing to see here, billionaires can be trusted.
You should go through crunchbase. Anyone in tech has worked at a place with evil investors. They just care whether you hit your numbers after finding product market fit. I'm a conspiracy theorist. This is not it.