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‘We have to blow it up’: can never-Trumpers retake the Republican party?
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 27 Oct 2024
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Are they going to rebuild or they just trying to migrate and take over the Democratic Party? We have this tendency to assume that this country is going to be two parties just as they are right now for the rest of our time but parties have changed in America many times. Hell, these two parties virtually swap places once. Nothing says it can't happen again.
After the dictator dies, there is always a battle of wannabes trying to replace him, a map of regional warlords trying to be the next Grand Cheetoh. Hopefully those regional warlords fall into obscurity and sanity prevails
Considering the number of republicans who have officially come out in support of Harris, even if it's just to avoid trump, it’s certainly possible.
This is exactly what I think is happening. The result of R destroying itself is somehow turning out to be no political home for progressives and left of them in US politics.
A lot has shifted over time, but the default state of American politics has always been two dominant parties.
That said, I could absolutely see a scenario where an American centrist party forms, still solidly to the right of most Western democracy, but centrist by current local standards, which not only pulls in the non-MAGA Republicans but also moderate Democrats, blue collar Dems from purple states, and once it gains traction and wins a few races, massive support from corporations and lobbies.
They'd win landslide victories over both older parties, especially as progressives and leftists gained greater control of the Democratic party through the flight of the moderates to the new centrist party, which would in turn drive even more establishment Dems to the new party.
They could run on nothing more than "common sense compromise, unity, and moving beyond the partisan squabbling that has plagued the country for decades", and be successful for at least 3 cycles before they even had to really take up any issues in earnest.
The deep South would stay red, the West cost, new York, and Illinois would stay blue, but I could see all of the mid Atlantic, Midwest, plains states, new England, and Southwest going for a viable centrist party.
For a long few years, national level politics would be absolute fucking chaos.
I'm not sure about New England. New Hampshire and Maine such a party would probably work in, but I am doubtful of any of the rest. MA and VT are two of the most left-leaning states in the country.
The current governor of Vermont is a Republican. Vermont tends to vote for the person rather than the party.
And MA has also had Republican governors in recent history, yet both are always among the highest % voting Democratic in presidential/congressional elections with Democratic supermajorities in their state houses.
Governors in New England are often a weird exception and are sometimes linked to poor turnout. That does not mean either state would have more of an appetite for a centrist party. Such a party would probably take more Republican votes than Democratic.
Fair point