I think so as well, once Ukraine runs through their current stocks of western weapons they can't be easily replaced. Ukraine is also losing a lot of its motivated and experinced soldiers who are being replaced by conscripts who are untrained and unmotivated.

Once the offensive burns out, Russia will be marching against a depleted and demoralized army.

Why? It would be a nightmare. Bakhmut/Artemovsk was bad enough, and it was a small town. A proper megapolis like Kiev would be a massacre for either side