"Quaise uses a gyrotron, originally developed for fusion research at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center, to produce millimeter-wave energy that ablates rock by vaporizing it with no mechanical contact. Last year, they drilled through 100+ meters of granite in Central Texas in the first field demonstration of the technology. This year, they’re targeting a kilometer, then eventually, 10-12 miles. At full depth, a single superhot well would produce 5-10x more power than a conventional geothermal well."

So far, geothermal energy's potential has been limited by location. A small number of places on the planet, like Iceland, are naturally very well suited to it. Quaise aren't the only people trying to reexamine geothermal by focusing on its fundamental constraints.

In Texas, Fervo is exploring the use of existing oil drilling technology so that geothermal plants can be placed anywhere, not just "ideal" geological locations. Now Quaise is doing the same, but with a different approach. Fervo is drilling 2-5km deep. Quaise wants to tap 300–500°C rocks 15-20km down.

Geothermal energy could be the key to 100% renewable grids. Even when solar & wind are overbuilt, the grid would still be vulnerable in winter, where weeks go by with low wind. In those circumstances, geothermal energy could be the ideal base load. So far, the constraints Quaise & Fervo are trying to fix have limited this.

Quaise looks to advance ​‘superhot’ geothermal power plant in Oregon

Solid-state batteries might not be cheaper at first. But once economies of scale from mass production efficiencies kick in, they will be.

One thing that goes under-appreciated about EVs is that even though they are winning today against gas-cars on reliability and cheapness, they still have years of improvements and cost reductions ahead. By the 2030s, they will be vastly cheaper & better than fossil fuel cars.

China is already making decent cars in the $10-15k price range; this battery tech will make that even easier. It's also making these cars with good Level 3 self-driving tech. There is a vast unserved market in the Global South (& huge chunks of the Western world) for cars like this.

The standard global car of the 2030s will be Chinese-made, an EV, self-driving & cost about $10,000. Anyone who still thinks gas cars have a future in this world is a dinosaur who can't see that asteroid streaking through the sky & about to hit them.

Solid-state EV batteries are coming sooner than expected after another breakthrough

These 4 countries now manufacture approximately. 40GW of solar panels per year. That's enough to power around 20 million EVs (maths below). That's far in excess of new car sales in those 4 countries, which come in at 3-4 million cars per year.

The oil shock from the Middle East War has not hit the world economy yet. Pre-war deliveries & reserves are still keeping prices artificially low, but that won't last much longer. $6/gallon oil is not far off. This is an acute economic crisis for SE Asia. There's an alternative, and it won't take long for more and more people to start joining the dots. If you make cheap power yourself for EVs - why stick with gas-cars?

A prediction? By year's end, new gas-car sales will be plummeting in country after country. China won't be able to keep up with the export demand for new EVs.

Southeast Asia’s Solar Panel Boom: It’s not just about China. The world is now benefiting from historically cheap solar panels made in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.

Maths - 40 GW × 20% capacity factor × 24 hours/day × 365 days/year = 70,080,000 MWh/year (70.08 TWh/year). Annual energy per EV: 12,000 miles × 0.3 kWh/mile = 3,600 kWh (3.6 MWh) per year. 70,080,000 MWh / 3.6 MWh per EV ≈ 19.4666666667 EVs

For all the boasts the US's AI military vendors make, I'm constantly struck by how few real-world achievements they have. They are battlefield tested in Gaza and Lebanon, but to what result? The mass destruction of civilian populations we see there looks exactly like WW2-era warfare. Now they want $445bn extra for more of the same? What a waste.

Meanwhile, with a tiny fraction of the budget & resources, it's Ukraine that is inventing the future. Drones have already reconfigured 21st-century warfare. Once again, recent events in the Middle East have shown that. Now Ukraine is doing the same with robots.

Some people find the idea of killer robots grim. But I'd rather see robots fight robots than WW2-style mass slaughter of civilians.

Ukrainian robots capture enemy position without troops in historic first, Zelenskyy says

Once a military base and these days a public park, Presidio is 1,500 acres of federal land within San Francisco's city limits. Fans of the Freedom City concept have long eyed it as a location. In March 2023, President Trump made that a campaign promise. Today, he started to make good on that promise by firing all the board members of the trust that runs it.

America already has something like freedom cities. Native American tribal nations are autonomous and self-governing to a degree. But Freedom Cities adherents want more autonomy than tribal nations. Tribal nations are subject to US federal laws on the environment, science, tech & medical regulation. It's those in particular that Big Tech wants to be free of.

Will libertarian Big Tech get its wish? They've already succeeded in Honduras. The US Congress may not be so keen. Setting up a 'state-within-a-state' has many downsides and will likely have little public support. But the people who really want it have plenty of money & buyable politicians on their side, so who knows.

Build the Presidio Freedom City

Trump fires entire San Francisco Presidio Trust board

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"In 2006, Shinya Yamanaka, a stem-cell biologist then at Kyoto University in Japan, and his colleague discovered that four proteins known as transcription factors — later dubbed Yamanaka factors — could transform an adult cell into an induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cell that is capable of taking on new identities."

The new trial will test partial reprogramming: Instead of turning cells completely back into stem cells, it rolls back some ageing markers while preserving the cell’s function. The upside if this treatment is effective? Rolling back aging, and extending lifespan.

However there are still big risks and question marks. There's a possible cancer risk from uncontrolled cell growth & questions as to just how much difference partial reprogramming can make to health.

This method to reverse cellular ageing is about to be tested in humans: A burgeoning field is launching its first clinical trial to find out whether dialling back cell development can safely refresh aged tissues and organs.

"With GEN-1, though, Generalist says its physical models have reached a GPT-3-style inflection point, where some tasks are starting to “cross the level of performance needed to be deployed in economically useful settings.”

I think humanoid robots are one of the sleeper tech trends most people are underestimating. They don't need AGI, or even 'perfect' AI, to do most unskilled & semi-skilled work. With enough development & training, today's AI models will probably be fine. Here's another sign that this hypothesis might be true.

How soon will they get there? At current rates of development, 2030 seems a reasonable estimate for general-purpose humanoids easily trainable for most unskilled/semi-skilled work. Just when most driving jobs will be disappearing to robo-taxis. No one seems prepared for this future rapidly bearing down upon us.

From folding boxes to fixing vacuums, GEN-1 robotics model hits 99% reliability: New model can respond to disruptions and figure out moves it wasn’t trained for.