https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2025-33892-004.html

We recruited 2,180 participants on Lucid between January 31 and February 17, 2020, about 9 months before the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Lucid, an online aggregator of survey respondents from multiple sources

https://support.lucidhq.com/s/article/Sample-Sourcing-FAQs

How are respondent incentives handled in the Marketplace?

Our respondents are sourced from a variety of supplier types who have control over incentivizing their respondents based on their business rules. Each incentive program is unique. Some suppliers do not incentivize their respondents at all, most provide loyalty reward points or gift cards, and some provide cash payments. Lucid does not control the incentivization models of our suppliers, as that's part of their individual business models. The method of incentivization also varies; for instance, some suppliers use the survey's CPI to calculate incentive, others LOI, or a combination of the two. Each respondent agrees to their panel's specific incentivization method when they join.

So the study didn't use a random sample. They took people who volunteered to do promotions that were funneled to together by one site. This is how we got those bogus polling data that Gen Z was secretly conservative because all the data was from YouGov.

The study they cite as justification really is about using Lucid over MTurk, not using Lucid over random samples. So they cite another study.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168018822174

We would note, however, that even extremely idiosyncratic convenience samples (e.g. Xbox users; Gelman et al., 2016) can sometimes produce estimates that turn out to have been accurate.

https://researchdmr.com/MythicalSwingVoterFinal.pdf

The Xbox panel is not representative of the electorate, with Xbox respondents predominantly young and male. As shown in Figure 2, 66% of Xbox panelists are between 18 and 29 years old, compared to only 18% of respondents in the 2008 exit poll,4 while men make up 93% of Xbox panelists but only 47% of voters in the exit poll. With a typical-sized sample of 1,000 or so, it would be difficult to correct skews this large, but the scale of the Xbox panel compensates for its many sins. For example, despite the small proportion of women among Xbox panelists, there are over 5,000 women in our sample, which is an order of magnitude more than the number of women in an RDD sample of 1,000.

The idea is to partition the population into cells (defined by the cross-classification of various attributes of respondents), use the sample to estimate the mean of a survey variable within each cell, and finally to aggregate the cell-level estimates by weighting each cell by its proportion in the population...MRP addresses this problem by using hierarchical Bayesian regression to obtain stable estimates of cell means (Gelman and Hill, 2006).

Maybe this is a lack of stats knowledge on my part, but can a person really successfully math out the responses of demographics the study didn't sample from when it mostly had respondents predominately from one age, one racial, and one sex demographic?

This seems like they are using math to make stuff up. It seems like the main driver of online surveys is to cut costs and save time for researchers. I'm taking this survey with a grain of salt for now. Maybe that's just my bias though. =/

So funny story on trying to get this to federate:

https://lemmy.blahaj.zone/post/18177682/11384061

If anyone has any insight, please let me know.

How long have you had this?

Like military time or a count down or is it colon separated?

What does the text look like for you?

If Trump wins our democracy is over. The way to stop this is to Vote Blue!

In our democracy, we have a first-past-the-post system. This means only two parties, Democrats and Republicans, have any chance at winning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo

The electoral college favors Republicans. Specifically it favors low population areas, which tend to vote Republican. High population centers tend to vote Democrat. Democrats need more votes to overcome this advantage.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voter-index/republican-electoral-college-advantage

A majority of people agree with Democrats on issues. If everyone voted, Democrats would win in a landslide.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/07/politics/democratic-positions-majority/index.html

Not voting and third party votes detracts from votes that could have gone to Democrats.

The strategy is tell everyone the polls are bogus and then vote in record numbers.

Following that strategy we would be giving the election away to Trump. A small deviation from the polls in Kamala's favor would be more suspect than a large one, because it would be easier to fake. We cannot win over MAGA Republicans in this narrow time window, they will say the election is rigged even if Trump wins. For most people, seeing Kamala win in a landslide would be proof the polls got it wrong.

Biden would definitely immediately send in support to any kind of Jan 6th esque event.

I doubt he will leverage the immunity SCOTUS has given presidents to safeguard democracy, but I would be happy to be proven wrong on that point. Hopefully it won't come to that.

This is why it's important to vote in record numbers no matter where people live. Kamala needs to win in a landslide in as many places as possible to leave no doubt that these polls were bogus. Otherwise we could end up with contested election results all over the country. edit: typos

This has been going on for at least the last week or two. An article I read said they could account for a biased poll, but I think the quantity is still skewing the average. If these polls are suspect, because of their source, it's unclear to me why polling websites sites are uncritically taking them into account.