As this is an ongoing event, this thread will be constantly updated as new information arrives. Please let me know if there are any amendments required or if there are any new information on this.
Mandarin version of this can be found here.
Note that this is largely a mirror of what I post on my Reddit account though the monyet.cc version will likely lag behind the Reddit version (monyet.cc will probably be updated roughly once a day, on demand) for technical reasons.
Additionally, for better or for worse, the Reddit counterpart comes with more discussions from other users so if you want more discussion, feel free to take a peek there.
Only major events will be stated under the Consolidated News Articles section -- other internal party events (especially the "he said, she said" materials) will be listed separately in the comments due to character limits in posts.
Scheduled Events
12 Aug 23: State Elections
29 Jul 23: Nomination Day
Consolidated News Articles
05 Jul 23: Six state elections to be held simultaneously on 12 Aug, nomination 29 July
03 Jul 23: EC is notified of state assembly dissolution and will convene to discuss state elections
01 Jul 23: N.Sembilan legislative assembly dissolves today after completing full term
28 Jun 23: Kedah state assembly officially dissolved today
28 Jun 23: Terengganu assembly dissolved, state under caretaker government
28 Jun 23: State polls: Penang dissolves state assembly
26 Jun 23: Muda to contest state elections solo
23 Jun 23: Assembly dissolves to open up Selangor election battlegrounds.
22 Jun 23: Kelantan State Assembly officially dissolves.
15 Jun 23: EC opens applications for election observers to register
08 Jun 23: EC: Applications for postal voting open from June 15
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FAQ and other information
What's happening?
State elections will be held in six states (all in Peninsular Malaysia) namely, Kedah, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor and Terengganu.
| State | Dissolution Date | Incumbent Government | Current Government Majority (by seats) ^(1)^ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kedah | 28 June 2023 | PN - PAS (MB: Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor) | 21/36 |
| Kelantan | 22 June 2023 | PN - PAS (MB: Ahmad Yakob) | 37/45 |
| Negeri Sembilan | 1 July 2023 | PH - PKR (MB: Aminuddin Harun) | 36/36 ^(2)^ |
| Penang | 28 June 2023 | PH - DAP (CM: Chow Kon Yeow) | 35/40 |
| Selangor | 23 June 2023 | PH - PKR (MB: Amirudin Shari) | 45/56 |
| Terengganu | 28 June 2023 | PN - PAS (MB: Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar) | 22/32 |
^1. Numbers may not tally with occupied seats as some seats were vacated without by-elections.^
^2. Negeri Sembilan's majority Includes seats from their now-coalition partners, BN. Seats were split 20-16 prior to the Unity Government^
When will the elections take place?
The Election Commission have not announced the date for the State Elections. However, by law (barring extraordinary cases), the State Elections must be held before 21 August 2023.
Who will be participating in this State Elections?
From the Federal Government coalition, Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) are expected to contest the election as a coalition of sorts, with various seat-sharing arrangements.
From the opposition, Perikatan Nasional (PN) is expected to contest with seats divvyed up among two of the component parties, BERSATU, Gerakan and PAS. News reports suggests that of the 245 seats planned to be contested between BERSATU (83), Gerakan (36) and PAS (126).
As with most elections, some independent candidates are expected to contest. This includes MUDA, one of the smaller parties in the Unity Government, that said that they will contest some State seats solo, after a perceived snub in discussions for seat allocation. MUDA is said to be in talks for an electoral pact / alliance with PSM though it has cautioned that it may not necessarily end up with a large participation in the state elections (less than 10% of total seats).
Why are there only six states holding the state elections? What about the other States not holding their elections?
While State Elections are generally synced to the General Elections (it is a huge cost-saver), these six states exercised their right not to dissolve their State Assemblies during the 2022 General Elections (GE15), partly due to political disagreements.
Additionally, some states held recent elections prior to GE15 (again, due to various political disagreements) and hence had a significant period of time before they were required to hold another election.
| Status | States |
|---|---|
| States required to hold state elections | Kedah, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Selangor, Terengganu |
| States that already held their state elections during the 2023 General Elections. | Pahang, Perak, Perlis |
| States that already held their state elections just prior to the 2023 General Elections | Johor, Malacca, Sabah, Sarawak |
Will the results of the State Assembly affect the Federal Government?
As a general rule, "no". State Elections do not affect seats composition at the Federal level (i.e.: Parliament). As the name implies, state elections are meant to elect the state government which manages state-specific matters and certain state-exclusive matters (which may include land matters, Islamic matters, forestry and other matters under the Ninth Schedule of the Federal Constitution).
However, given that the current Federal Government comprises an alliance of coalitions (PH-BN-GRS-GPS and other allied parties), one consideration is that a massive defeat of the Government may prompt each of the individual coalitions to rethink their alliances and possibly opt for an alternative political arrangement with the Opposition. While defection of individual member of Parliaments (MPs) are less likely due to the anti-hopping law, it remains possible for political coalitions to defect as a bloc. If there is significant scale of defection, this could potential lead to a collapse of the Federal Government.
Other considerations include the State Elections being effectively a gauge of grassroot (and indeed, electorate) sentiments on the relatively new PH-BN coalition, and its implications on internal political negotiations.
What are the prospects for the different parties?
Your guess is as good as mine.
That said, Malaysiakini produced an interesting writeup (may require a paid subscription) on how the State Elections would have played out if the State Elections were held at the same time as GE15.
While this is a good baseline, it is worth noting that there are many factors that may have changed since GE15, including the formation of the unity government, changing strength of the "green wave", the relatively low turnout typical of standalone state elections, etc.
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Summary on BFM 6pm-to-7:30 discussion about youth vote (audio 56 mins). They invited 2 Malaysiakini journalists who worked on the Newslab feature on whether the green wave was powered by the youth (monyet.cc post), and also another guest professor who is a uni lecturer to understand this topic.
MKini has data down to polling districts (scroll to "Who did your neighbours vote for?"). They encourage readers to understand how the oldest and youngest vote, since their choices are drowned out when lumped together in the final results. However they acknowledged the data and article they presented can be overwhelming. What they found can be summarised in the next section, which I combined with the guest prof opinions.
Youth votes will largely follow GE15 trend. The youth don't favour the older BN, went through Sheraton move (-ve for PH), Covid lockdown (+ve for PN) and gig economy, which factors into their vote preferences. Urban-rural, education, employment, and income levels seem to be secondary factors, compared to recent politics and policies. They prefer a strong figure to lead the country/state to stability and look after their rights (not so much youth rights, but the preferential treatment kind).
Part 1 of MKini election simulator was discussed on BFM here (audio 50 mins).
Edit: Added relevant links.
Thanks for the summary!
Got link to the discussion?
Just added BFM link to its podcast.