The whole point of the Sword of Damocles was that the threat was always looming and Damocles didn't know when it might fall. We know exactly when Microsoft says they are going to drop support. There's a decent chance that they'll push that date back due to slow adoption at least once.
This is more about rats not fleeing the sinking ship until the sea has reached the bow.

Elon Musk will go to any length to scrub this image from the Internet: