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submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz to c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml

🔮 (on average) Predictions may relate to your personal life or grand tectonic shifts in our constantly changing world. Assess your own prediction accuracy.

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[-] Casuallynoted@pawb.social 4 points 2 days ago

If it has to do with my future - I’ve been spot on way more than not. I can think of multiple times where I’ve been told by someone “no way that would ever happen you’re just catastrophizing” only for it to happen exactly that way shortly thereafter.

About the world? I’m almost never right hahaha, I genuinely can’t remember the last time I was right about anything going on in the world at all.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 2 points 1 day ago

Being good at predicting your own future is a good sign for your own intelligence. It means you judge your circumstances well.

[-] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 12 points 3 days ago

Getting better the more Marxist-Leninist theory I read. Understanding dialectical and historical materialism, as well as the mechanics of capitalism and imperialism, has allowed me to sharpen my analysis.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 2 points 3 days ago

So your success rate with predictions is greater than 50% ?

[-] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 8 points 3 days ago

Kinda? Predictions aren't a binary, often times I get more aspects correct but details wrong. The future isn't knowable, but reasonable and accurate predictions can be made.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 2 points 3 days ago

Good point with predictions not being binary. It is hard to assess prediction accuracy, so I guess this entire question I asked here is useless?

[-] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 3 points 3 days ago

That's a matter of perspective, if it opens up the conversation to tangential subjects, ie me saying Marxism-Leninism has helped, then it's still a useful conversation starter. Depends on what you want to get out of this post.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 1 points 3 days ago

I mean yeah in general, using a theoretical construct to enhance prediction accuracy is a good strategy I guess.

I believe with better predictions we can have better lives in a uncertain world.

What are your thoughts on prediction markets? Are they gambling?

[-] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Yes, I guess so. As for Marxism-Leninism, it's a tool for working class liberation and a frame of analysis, not really a construct.

[-] the_abecedarian@piefed.social 7 points 3 days ago

100% accurate! Just buy my book, app, and newsletter subscription. Plus brain pills.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 5 points 3 days ago

damn how many bitcoin do your pills cost, I want them all

[-] InvalidName2@lemmy.zip 5 points 3 days ago

On average, I find the less precise my predictions, the more accurate they become and the more precise my predictions, the less accurate they become.

So rather than predict that I'm 54.3% accurate, I'll just say it's probably roughly half the time at a minimum.

[-] Glent@lemmy.ca 3 points 3 days ago
[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

You predicted my next dice roll, a 7, wow!

[-] monovergent@lemmy.ml 2 points 2 days ago

It doesn't happen too often, but if my mind comes up with a prediction for the next word out of someone's mouth, it's correct about 75% of the time.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 4 points 2 days ago

sounds like you are a LLM AI agent.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 2 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

I am terrible at predicting future events. 70% score I would say. Perhaps I have not all information to be successful predictor.

[-] zeropointone@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

According to myself? According to others? Or the average of both?

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 2 points 3 days ago

both would be interesting. But I am more interested in self-assessment of prediction accuracy.

[-] zeropointone@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

Roughly 90 % if I have access to plenty of data. According to others it's less than 10 %.

[-] glowing_hans@sopuli.xyz 2 points 3 days ago

are your predictions sometimes funny?

[-] zeropointone@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

It depends on your prefered type of humor. Do you like gallows humor?

this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2025
19 points (100.0% liked)

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