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submitted 1 month ago by yogthos@lemmygrad.ml to c/news@hexbear.net
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[-] Wheaties@hexbear.net 56 points 1 month ago

The consequences extend beyond individual data centers. On November 28, 2025, the CME Group—operator of the world’s largest derivatives exchange—experienced a complete trading halt. Treasury futures, energy markets, agricultural contracts—90 percent of global derivatives volume went dark. The cause was not a cyberattack. It was not software failure. A cooling system failed at a data center in Aurora, Illinois. The machines that price risk for the global economy exceeded their thermal limits.

The CME had sold that data center in 2016 for 130 million dollars and leased it back. When the cooling failed, CME owned nothing. It controlled nothing. It waited, like everyone else, for someone else to fix the pipes.

This single incident illuminates a truth that financial markets have not yet fully absorbed: the limit on computational throughput is not processing power. It is heat rejection capacity. The engine of global price discovery was built on silicon that melts.

point-and-laugh-1point-and-laugh-2

[-] Wheaties@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas drew the critical distinction in October 2025: “This is not financed by debt, and that means if there is a market correction... it doesn’t necessarily transmit to the broader financial system.” The channel through which technology bubbles become systemic crises—excessive leverage amplifying losses—is largely absent from the hyperscaler balance sheets.

lea-tired Oh, yeah, these wealthy companies will totally keep the losses contained to their own cash-flows, they're definitely not gonna try and force the public to foot the bill.

[-] ConcreteHalloween@hexbear.net 32 points 1 month ago

Sam Altman has already said he expects a government bailout.

[-] Wheaties@hexbear.net 26 points 1 month ago

The bull case has merit. Enterprise ROI is measurable. Hyperscaler balance sheets are strong. Investment as a share of GDP remains below historical peaks. Efficiency gains may outpace demand growth.

The bear case has merit. Circular financing amplifies correlation risk. Thermodynamic limits are non-negotiable. Depreciation accounting may be masking massive losses. Valuation metrics are historically extreme.

What cannot be done is to pretend that one case is obviously correct and the other obviously wrong. The uncertainty is genuine. The stakes are enormous. And the resolution will unfold not in earnings calls or analyst reports but in the quiet hum of cooling systems that either work or fail, in grids that either hold or collapse, in a physical world that operates by laws no financial innovation can repeal.

[...]

In the end, this story is not about artificial intelligence. It is about the collision between human ambition and physical reality. We have built machines that think by making machines that heat.

Machines that think. Really.

This otherwise good analysis seems to be predicated on critically digging into everything - the hardware, the financial instruments, the historical parallels. Everything except the software itself. Those claims are taken at face value.

[-] LeninWeave@hexbear.net 14 points 1 month ago

The bull case has merit. Enterprise ROI is measurable. Hyperscaler balance sheets are strong. Investment as a share of GDP remains below historical peaks. Efficiency gains may outpace demand growth.

The bear case has merit. Circular financing amplifies correlation risk. Thermodynamic limits are non-negotiable. Depreciation accounting may be masking massive losses. Valuation metrics are historically extreme.

I like how the bull case is literally all made up vague nonsense, whereas the bear case is mostly hard facts and incontrovertible realities.

[-] KuroXppi@hexbear.net 9 points 1 month ago

The engine of global price discovery was built on silicon that melts.

This is my 'cellar door'

[-] Wheaties@hexbear.net 3 points 1 month ago
[-] KuroXppi@hexbear.net 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

It's a saying to mean a phrase or set of words that sounds pleasant due, mostly, to the combination of sounds.

(The meaning of the sentence being pleasant, too, is a bonus)

[-] Blakey@hexbear.net 4 points 1 month ago

J.R.R. Tolkien, iirc, said it was the most pleasant sounding phrase in the English language.

[-] PKMKII@hexbear.net 49 points 1 month ago

Microsoft’s September 2024 announcement that it would restart the Three Mile Island nuclear facility—site of America’s worst nuclear accident—marked a turning point. The twenty-year power purchase agreement secured dedicated electricity supply for Microsoft’s data centers at a scale that the existing grid could not provide. The Department of Energy approved a one billion dollar loan guarantee in November 2025 to accelerate the restart, now targeting 2027 operation.

what-the-hell but not from a “we’re gonna have the three mile island incident part deux” view. People’s energy bills are through the roof, everything is pointing towards needing reduced energy usage, and what’s the government doing about it? Giving Microsoft a loan to get their own personal nuclear reactor so Copilot can write a stilted response email for the useless middle managers of the world.

[-] miz@hexbear.net 46 points 1 month ago

the headline stat being an absolute amount instead of a percentage is sus. NVIDIA has lost 400bn in a day before

[-] LeninWeave@hexbear.net 28 points 1 month ago

The current market cap of Oracle is approximately 545bn. It's approximately a 6% drop in 48 hours, nothing major unless it continues.

[-] DivineChaos100@hexbear.net 39 points 1 month ago

Working at a call center and we now use an ai for documenting calls "to reduce workloads" and now documenting calls takes about 50% longer because i have to correct the bullshit the ai makes up.

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Investors who hold Oracle's bonds from just a few months ago are already 10% underwater with them. Oracle also can't finish multiple datacenters because of a parts shortage. The shortage in memory chips started to appear just a few months ago, everyone who was in the last stages of building a datacenter would've received memory chips months ago. The speculation is that they don't have the customers for those datacenters, or more precisely, that OpenAI just doesn't have the money to lease them anymore.

I guess that Nvidia can always lease those datacenters instead and pay Oracle in GPUs, that would be normal and cool.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/oracle-reportedly-delays-several-new-openai-data-centers-because-of-shortages-tight-material-and-labor-supply-frustrate-expansion-plans-possibly-by-a-year-or-more

[-] jackmaoist@hexbear.net 20 points 1 month ago

OpenAI doesn't really need more datacenters now. Their user base is declining and it will go down as people switch to better models. Sam Altman can shove his DRAM wafers up his ass.

[-] mendiCAN@hexbear.net 16 points 1 month ago

how many GB does altmans BIOS recognize ?

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 13 points 1 month ago

100TB, but it is all zeros.

[-] jack@hexbear.net 16 points 1 month ago

But they need investors to believe they need more datacenters or the house of cards tumbles

Aw shit this won't be fun. It might be funny though.

[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 25 points 1 month ago
[-] BeanisBrain@hexbear.net 19 points 1 month ago

It's like that one Chinese curse, "May you live in weeks where decades happen"

[-] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 5 points 1 month ago

Or my favorite proverb, "There are boring times, and there are interesting times"

[-] coolusername@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 month ago
[-] yogthos@lemmygrad.ml 2 points 1 month ago

If you're disputing any of the facts presented in the article then say what they are. If not, then stop making vapid comments that add nothing to the discussion.

this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2025
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