88

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a Quds Day march in Bandar Abbas, Iran.


It now seems likely that, very soon, the US and the Zionists will attempt to bomb Iran. Compared to the buildup to the Iraq War, the stated goals of such a move are being kept a little more generalized - some say the point is to overthrow the government for "humanitarian" purposes (others are more honest and want to partition Iran into a dozen powerless statelets). Some people instead say the point is to get rid of the ballistic missile program, which is synonymous with outright surrender, as no matter the deal, bombers would be en route within 10 minutes of the last batch being handed over.

Still others say that the goal is to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, which, as the thread title implies, is now in a bizarre propaganda superposition: it is apparently simultaneously true to the Trump administration that the US obliterated the nuclear facilities and set back Iran's nuclear program years, if not decades, but also that Iran is mere days away from finishing a nuke and a new round of bombing is urgently required. This obviously casts newfound doubts on how effective US weapons even are at penetrating Iran's underground facilities (though it doesn't necessarily mean they didn't breach them, as Iran was almost certainly moving nuclear material out of Fordow and other sites in the days before the Twelve Day War). The sheer quantity of US anti-air defense equipment they're shifting into position also casts doubts on whether Iran's air defense was mostly destroyed during that conflict, as those who assert that the Zionists had total air supremacy over Iran seem to be implying.

I'm not a military guy, and so I have no novel insights on how such a war is likely to go, nor do I feel confident predicting either side's victory. I'm looking at most of the same sources that you're all looking at. Some confidently boast of the total destruction of Iran's air defense within hours, allowing US planes to fly directly over Iranian cities and drop bombs en masse; others cast doubts on whether this will ever occur, and say that the US's limited supply of Tomahawk missiles is the only major firepower they will be able to safely unleash. Some say this war will last mere days before state collapse; others say months, maybe even years. I have no idea.

I do at least feel somewhat bolstered by the fact that Russia and China finally appear to be pouring in meaningful information and matériel to help Iran this time around, though of course, one can still debate whether it's enough. I feel like we are at the culmination of decades of war planning by both the US and Iran, and the result could have deep ramifications indeed.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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Mercs acting like mercs:

Russian security agencies have been recording requests from foreign mercenaries in the Ukrainian armed forces who are willing to disclose the coordinates of Ukrainian troops’ positions, including their own, for financial compensation, a Russian security official told TASS.

"Some mercenaries are looking for any way to make money and are offering to provide information about the Ukrainian armed forces’ positions or even their own positions for cryptocurrency when they leave their temporary deployment site - there have been such cases," the source said.

https://tass.com/world/2090901

[-] LeninWeave@hexbear.net 21 points 6 hours ago
  1. Always pay your guys.
  2. This is probably true, but obviously also a counterintelligence operation to make the AFU and mercs distrust each other.
[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 48 points 10 hours ago

https://xcancel.com/RWApodcast/status/2026019890721624206

There have been three anti-police attacks in Ukraine in the last 24 hours. Last night, an IED killed and wounded police personnel in Lvov. Earlier tonight, police were blown up in Nikolayev (7 wounded). Just now, another IED exploded at a police station in Dnepropetrovsk.

cop explosion

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 33 points 10 hours ago

https://xcancel.com/RWApodcast/status/2025940848903385166

A command post of the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. Underground to protect against drones and missiles. Tunnels wide enough to drive vehicles through them. The future of warfare...

tunnelmaxxing, the way of the future

[-] WilsonWilson@hexbear.net 29 points 9 hours ago

The last photo on the left in this hallway is Stalin.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 23 points 8 hours ago

of course, he was a pioneer in tunnel thought

[-] ourtimewillcome@hexbear.net 13 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

behind him are portraits of marshals of the red army voroshilov, shaposhnikov and budyonny, as well as propably zhukov.

(also, those are paintings, not photos, as stalin refrained from wearing his medals irl nerd )

[-] Bolshechick@hexbear.net 11 points 7 hours ago

Anyone recognize anyone else? I can't

[-] TyMan210@hexbear.net 8 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

I'm pretty sure the 4th portrait is Semyon Budyonny. I recognize that one and the one to the left of it from HOI4 general portraits lol, but I can't place the other.

Edit: This portrait of him, specifically.

[-] departee@hexbear.net 8 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

You can see the other portraits here probably (Marshals of the Soviet Union from WW2)

I counted 17 pictures though so there would be three missing

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 12 points 7 hours ago

A big problem I can see with this basing mode is that it's quite vulnerable if the entrances and exits are struck. The people in those tunnels need air, food, water, supplies, electricity. And to exit the tunnels to take offensive or defensive actions on the surface. Unless the plan is to build a self sufficient city underground and not contest the surface that much, just focus on staying alive underground and defence.

[-] Euergetes@hexbear.net 2 points 4 hours ago

Unless the plan is to build a self sufficient city underground

there's a serbian film about this, thinking-about-it but in real life they're probably going to have more trouble with heaps of sewage

[-] culpritus@hexbear.net 25 points 9 hours ago

Thin Blue Line and Slava Ukraini flags spotted. Wonder where they got those from.

[-] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 23 points 8 hours ago

Probably both war trophies? Can't imagine any other reason for them being there.

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 21 points 8 hours ago

Trying to imagine the mind of an American who would take a thin blue line flag with him when he goes to join the Ukrainian foreign legion.

[-] P1d40n3@hexbear.net 24 points 7 hours ago

I feel that's is ONLY kind of American that joins the foreign legion

[-] ourtimewillcome@hexbear.net 9 points 7 hours ago
[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 35 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

https://archive.ph/U8hhm

Trump growing frustrated with limits of Iran military options, sources say

President Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with what aides describe as the limits of military leverage against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CBS News under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues.

more

Unlike previous targeted operations, including the recent one removing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power, Mr. Trump has been told that any strike on Tehran's assets would almost certainly not be a singular, decisive blow. Instead, limited strikes could open the door to a wider confrontation — one that risks drawing the United States into a protracted conflict in the Middle East. Axios first reported details of the president's frustrations. President Trump, in a social media post refuted any reports that Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, "is against us going to War with Iran." Caine, he said, "would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won." Mr. Trump said Caine "has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about, he only knows one thing, how to WIN and, if he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack." A senior military official told CBS News that military planners are providing unbiased advice. The White House referred CBS News to the president's social media post. At the heart of the president's impatience is a desire for a forceful action that would reset the diplomatic table. He has pressed advisers for options that would deliver a punishing strike — one substantial enough, in his view, to compel Iranian leaders to return to negotiations under more favorable terms for Washington. But military planners have cautioned that such an outcome cannot be guaranteed. In private meetings, Caine has advised Mr. Trump that a sustained military campaign against Iran could carry significant repercussions, such as retaliation from Tehran and its proxies against U.S. forces and allies, and it could spiral into a drawn-out engagement requiring additional American troops and resources.

Over the weekend, special envoy Steve Witkoff told Lara Trump in an interview on Fox News that Mr. Trump is "curious" about why Iranians "haven't capitulated." "Why, under this sort of pressure, with the amount of sea power, naval power that we have over there, why they haven't come to us and said, 'We profess that we don't want to be — we don't want a weapon. So, here's what we're prepared to do.' And yet, it's hard to sort of get them to that place," Witkoff said.

tito-laugh

In recent weeks, the U.S. has greatly expanded its military posture across the region. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group and its flotilla of warships are expected to position themselves within range of Iranian territory, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and other aircraft squadrons stationed at bases throughout the Persian Gulf. Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems have been reinforced to protect American troops and regional allies from potential retaliation. Pentagon officials say the deployments are defensive and designed to deter escalation, yet the scale and tempo of the build up underscore that any strike in Iran would almost certainly trigger a response whether through missile attacks, maritime harassment in the Strait of Hormuz, or proxy forces operating in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. The meetings unfolding inside the White House regarding Iran reflect a broader tension between political objectives and military realities. While the president seeks a dramatic show of force to strengthen his hand in negotiations, senior commanders have emphasized that wars rarely unfold according to script and that even carefully calibrated strikes can produce unpredictable consequences. For now, the buildup of U.S. military hardware continues as contingency plans are refined. Whether it culminates in a limited strike or remains a posture of deterrence may depend less on the president's frustration than on Tehran's next move and ultimately on how much risk Washington is prepared to bear.

[-] InexplicableLunchFiend@hexbear.net 30 points 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

Trump is upset because he can't just give orders to sovereign nations. How frustrating and sad. His victory in Venezuela might legitimately be the worst thing to happen recently, in terms of emboldening the US imperialists to such a high that they think they can literally order the entire planet at their whims

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 10 points 6 hours ago

I think the root of Trump's frustration is that there is no "limited strike option". Any US airstike at this point would have to be accompanied by left of launch defeat of Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one way attack drones. That is an enormous effort. The US set up to do a "limited strike" in January, and then pulled out/bluffed at the last minute once they realised that they were open to retaliation they could not prevent. The US military buildup since then is an admission that just using cruise missiles for left of launch defeat was insufficient, they need air superiority for whatever's planned, planes and drones in Iranian airspace hunting down launchers.

I think all these concerns about Iranian defence or retaliation, US stockpiles of interceptors, etc are valid of course, but sources in the Trump admin leaking this at the last minute is not going to move the needle much in terms of planning. This would've all been discussed weeks ago before everything started moving.

[-] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 32 points 10 hours ago

I don't know, they might be placing misleading news in the media while the decision has already been made. Even fucking Schumer looked a bit worried around ~30 minutes ago when he came from his briefing. He just said something like "this is serious and the administration needs to make its case to the people".

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 32 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago)

It could be that these articles are coming out precisely because a decision has been made, and people who were opposed to it are now desperately turning to trying to drum up media attention after they've been shut out of discussions. There's a common tendency to assume that the US deep state must somehow be fully united and single-minded, but no grouping of people past a certain size can truly be such - different factions developing is inevitable (that's why democratic centralism is so important for socialist parties, you need a mechanism to actually manage this conundrum instead of doing the liberal thing of "yeah, we have a guy in the party who just consistently sabotages us on every agenda we try in the legislature. are we going to do something about it? no, what do you think we are, Stalin?")

I gave this example in another comment, but we can reflect back on Nazi planning of Barbarossa, and the fact that logistics officers specifically pointed out that Germany did not have the means to actually sustain a constant offensive over a long period, and would run into trouble if the operation didn't conclude quickly - they were simply ignored with the argument of "it will never come to that, we'll just beat the Soviets in a short campaign!". Now, those guys just shut up and dutifully planned for an operation that they knew could turn into a disaster, but the political and social environment in America is rather different, and seems to lead to lots of relatively high-ranking people who are very media-hungry and love to not shut up and dutifully do their job, but rather start leaking shit (an ironic phrase in this particular moment, heh) left and right upon the slightest obstacle to their agenda.

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 23 points 9 hours ago

The US not having the means to accomplish its goals in Iran and it trying anyway are not mutually exclusive

[-] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 20 points 8 hours ago

They do have the means to accomplish their goals. My fear is that this admin is crazy enough to actually use them.

nuke

[-] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 13 points 7 hours ago

Despite the media frenzy around Putin's "nuclear brinkmanship" in 2022-2023, Israel or the US will clearly be the first to use a nuke (well, US already did but you get my point)

The option to use a "tactical" nuke to destroy underground facilities must be on the table

[-] darkcalling@hexbear.net 3 points 5 hours ago

And they'll of course deny using a nuke as a bunker buster and call it propaganda and western media will run with it being some secret, classified never before heard of bunker buster model that just looks like a nuke on seismographs 1000 miles away.

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 8 points 6 hours ago

I really don't think nuclear weapons are on the table, even though there's always a non zero chance of nuclear weapons use. The US and Israel have a high degree of conventional military superiority, there's no need for nuclear weapons.

The only way I see the US or Israel nuking Iran is if:

  • Widespread use of chemical or biological weapons delivered by Iranian ballistic missiles.
  • Iran carries out a countervalue attack on Israel that kills thousands.

Both are extremely, extremely unlikely and would be suicidal for Iran to even think about, yet alone carry out. I also highly doubt Iran could or would do either, of even has the capability. It's one thing to make a propaganda poster of Tel Aviv burning to the ground, it's another thing entirely to actually do it and launch thousands of missiles simultaneously.

[-] spectre@hexbear.net 17 points 10 hours ago

I don't really disagree with you but I don't see this headline/article working to their advantage in any way.

[-] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 37 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

https://xcancel.com/BookerBiro/status/2026389137385767389

BOOKER NGESA OMOLE KIDNAPPED BY STATE FORCES

PUBLIC STATEMENT AND CALL FOR SOLIDARITY 24 February 2026

The Central Committee of the Communist Party Marxist Kenya addresses the people of Kenya and all progressive forces with urgency, anger, and unwavering clarity.

He was also targeted by armed goons in a failed assassination attempt.

[-] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 13 points 5 hours ago

I assume the state of the union address is boring and trump hasn't announced anything big

[-] WIIHAPPYFEW@hexbear.net 3 points 4 hours ago

Watching it just to hone the accuracy of my estimate of the time we have left until he announces that he’s joining brandon in beating medicare

[-] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 8 points 5 hours ago

https://apnews.com/live/trump-state-of-the-union-2026

Looks boring. Someone yelled at him about killing americans, looks like he rambled about different tax/stock market things, he gave a medal of freedom to a hockey goalie which is kinda funny.

He said the US has gotten 80m barrels of oil from Venezuela, if true that seems like a lot?


Trump introduced Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who received cheers from Republicans in the chamber.

“America is one nation under God, and we must totally reject political violence of any kind,” Trump said in remarks that received a bipartisan standing ovation.

fucking ridiculous

[-] Coolkidbozzy@hexbear.net 4 points 4 hours ago

I saw the erika kirk bit, she was trying so hard to look sad lmao

[-] BountifulEggnog@hexbear.net 2 points 4 hours ago

That's hilarious

[-] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 58 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

US Air Force F-22 Raptors are now forward deploying from RAF Lakenheath in the UK, to the Middle East, Ovda Air Base in Israel. (Yes, the F-22s are directly deploying to Israel, I'll explain why later.) 12x F-22s left RAF Lakenheath today, 11x will arrive at Ovda, 1x F-22 declared an emergency and flew back to Lakenheath. Last year in the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, 12x F-22s arrived in Lakenheath and only 10x made it to the Middle East. Trans Atlantic flights are hard on high performance aircraft.

EISNspotter on X/Twitter for flight tracking data, xcancel link.

Update:

Another flight of 6x F-22 Raptors is now deploying to the Middle East from Langley, Virginia, to make for 17-18 total. There are also at least 6x F-15E Strike Eagles deploying from the UK to the Middle East, and 6x F-16CJs from Japan to Diego Garcia.

Ovda air base:

Why Ovda? It's an empty air base in Israel, no units are actively stationed there. It is also heavily protected. Ovda has 60 hardened aircraft shelters (HAS), currently unoccupied:

It is also defended by an Arrow 2 (I'm guessing) anti ballistic missile system:

With Iranian ballistic missile fire excepted after any US - Israeli attack, the US really cannot afford to lose F-22s on the ground to ballistic missiles. Most US air bases have little to no HAS, and rely exclusively on missile defence systems and dispersion for protection. F-22s are no longer in production, and will only be fully replaced in over a decade's time, with the F-47 being in full scale production by then. The US only has around 180+ F-22s. Other aircraft, like the F-35, F-15, etc can be replaced in short order, the F-22 cannot. The US is minimising potential risk to these aircraft which cannot be replaced quickly if lost. We may see other US aircraft use Ovda and rotate and disperse throughout the Middle East, according to the US military's Agile Combat Employment (ACE) doctrine, to minimise risk vs Iranian ballistic missile attacks on US airbases. The use of Ovda is the first sign of ACE being employed.

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