Just got through airport security and unfortunately I had to go home using an airport that just got an infusion of ice agents.

From what I understood previously, the ice guys were just going to be watching the areas where people leave the secure gate areas, but I can report that the ice guys at this airport are actually checking people’s passports/IDs where the TSA guy normally does it, and I even saw one helping put people’s bags on the conveyor belt.

When your ID/boarding pass is checked, normally you can do this as a group, but they separated me from my girlfriend, forcing me into a security line without her, which was pretty enraging. I had a hard time holding my tongue, and my heart rate was going crazy.(Oh, and they’re all armed still, btw.)

For this and a host of other reasons, maybe don’t fly right now folks!

OK effort post underway, so I'll spoiler it. Long story short is that energy transitions are almost never "economic" and are instead dictated by political and power considerations, and I believe the third Gulf War is going to solidify a broader shift away from oil and into renewables for the same reason we switched from water power to coal and from coal to oil.

It’s not letting me post a picture but take my word for it. First “I did that”-Trump sticker at the gas pumps in Texas.

Spain has now closed its airspace to US imperialist planes involved in attacking Iran:

On Monday, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said that aircraft taking part in operations against Iran will not be allowed to operate in Spanish airspace, including US jets based in other NATO countries such as the UK or France. Madrid had already barred the use of the jointly operated Rota and Moron de la Frontera bases in southern Spain for strike missions.

Around 15 US KC-135 tanker aircraft have been relocated to bases in France and Germany, Spanish media reported. With Spain’s airspace off-limits, long-range B-52 and B-1 bombers operating from the UK’s Fairford airbase must now fly longer routes, reducing operational efficiency and forcing trade-offs between fuel and payload.

https://www.rt.com/news/636779-spain-us-warplanes-iran/

some notes on airpower https://xcancel.com/policytensor/status/2036521984415469677

There are three theories of air power. We know Douhetist terror bombing has never destroyed the will of the enemy to fight. Decapitation has now failed. As long as the US remains ‘up in the air’ there is only one path to avoiding strategic defeat: winning the interdiction war to disarm Iran. The interdiction theory of victory is ‘analytically attractive’ because it empirically testable in real time. If Iranian strike tempo is dwindling to zero, the US is winning; otherwise it is losing outright. The all-important interdiction war is going very poorly. I look at the attached map every day from ACLED, the gold standard of conflict data (https://acleddata.com/iran-crisis-live). Iranian strike tempo shows no sign of dwindling. To the contrary, depletion of interceptor inventories and the use of heavier missiles has dramatically increased the effectiveness of Iranian missile strikes, as we are seeing in the strikes on Israel.

The Iranians’ interdiction/counterforce campaign has been surprisingly successful. At least 10 radars have been destroyed, partially blinding US forces and interceptor systems. US bases in the region have been largely evacuated, forcing the US to use European bases. There have been some big kills. Two dozen heavy drones and a half a dozen manned aircraft have been lost to Iranian fire/accidents, not clear which, including an F-35. A mighty carrier group has been put out of business. Iran enjoys escalation dominance. This was confirmed when Trump had to walk back his ultimatum. Iran has a very powerful threat at the top of the escalation ladder: the O&G infrastructure and water desalinization systems in the gulf are both under Iranian fire control. Iran holds horizontal escalation options in reserve. The Houthis have their ‘fingers on the trigger.’ That is a deterrent to keep the Saudis out of the war, and may be used at any time to expand the war and impose greater costs on the West. Iran retains a firm grip on the Hormuz weapon. No serious military option to retake Hormuz exists as long as the interdiction war is not won. No matter where you land the marines, they will be fully exposed to Iranian fire, including artillery fire. US force protection requirements, ultimately a function of casualty intolerance, mean that the Kharg idea etc are just not going to fly.

The United States is at a crossroads. Either it swallows this military humiliation and accepts a ceasefire largely on Iranian terms, or it must send in ground forces to in a bid to retake Hormuz and restore US military prestige. If the US chooses a negotiated ceasefire, Iran will emerge as a regional hegemon with the Hormuz weapon firmly in its hands; and, having defeated the US in a high-intensity conventional war, as a great power in the international system. If the US chooses to escalate to a ground war, the war will last for years. This is because both force protection and the overriding objective of fire suppression will drive ever greater commitment of ground forces. But the US cannot win the ground war under any circumstances because the division math (https://x.com/policytensor/status/2034106536084038083) is even more forbidding than the drone math (https://x.com/policytensor/status/2030047132200145398). This means that the choice facing the aggressor is between accepting strategic defeat now at limited costs, or later at far, far higher costs. So the United States has already suffered a catastrophic military defeat. The multipolar world was a hypothesis until last month. Now it is a demonstrated military fact. It has obtained due to the diffusion of military technology (https://x.com/policytensor/status/2035826416453849393). The US monopoly in precision-strike is now gone. Deterrence in Asia is now dead. This cannot but fail to have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, which I will lay out in detail in a forthcoming interview on @MultipolarPod with @admcollingwood later today.

see also the article @carpoftruth@hexbear.net posted for more elaboration on the "US monopoly in precision-strike is now gone" point

It is, in a way, very ironic for the US to now have to contend with interdiction and deep strikes, something they led the way on - that's what the late-Cold-War AirLand Battle doctrine was all about, they were tackling the question of how to deal with Warsaw Pact numerical superiority in conventional ground forces, and realized that, on the actual frontline, said superiority would not yet exist at the onset of a war - the Soviet army wasn't all just hanging out in East Germany, forces would have to be brought in from the operational rear. If NATO could, thanks to advances in ISR and precision-guided munitions, detect and hit those forces while they were on their way to the fighting, and ensure they're never actually brought to bear - well, then they're not anywhere near as outnumbered. A more primitive version of this already played out in WW2, where Allied air superiority over France was key for the Normandy landings to be feasible by preventing the Germans from being able to quickly move in forces to respond to the landings.

At the point when AirLand Doctrine was introduced, with missile technology not quite as mature and with drones just starting to emerge as a concept, the only way to do this was with lots of crewed aircraft, and that was an area NATO, and the US in particular, was way ahead on. But that's no longer the world we live in, with NATO planners apparently not having spent much time thinking about

1. what if other technologies allow someone to do interdiction and deep strikes to them

2. what if their own interdiction doesn't actually get very far, because the enemy has spent years preparing for specifically that based on lessons from prior bombing campaigns (well, some people at least have thought a bunch about it, but are apparently not listened to by anyone)

This is also an interesting look at how being an early adopter of something can screw you over at a later point - the US has remained insistent on crewed aircraft as the main way to achieve interdiction, hence the investment in stealth technology in order to allow planes to keep being able to carry out this role despite advancements in anti-air capabilities (although aside from the early adopter aspect, I feel like there's also a role being played by the plain stupid fascist machismo of "Tom Cruise flying a plane directly into enemy territory is based, shooting missiles from hidden-away trucks is cowardly and gay"). Conversely, countries that simply didn't have the resources to build up such a large air-force were forced to explore alternative approaches, which might turn out to be the better ones in the long run.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari:

Iran has been here for millennia. Nobody is going anywhere.

Total annihilation is not an option.

No people or country will disappear from existence by the wish or whim of any political actor.

We will live next to each other. We will be neighbors for the future of humankind, and we have to find ways of living next to each other.

We will have to find a way past this. This is a very difficult moment, but we will find our way out of it.

https://xcancel.com/JeffWellsRigInt/status/2038330203919827036

There's so much indignation that Iran prepared well for this that its very preparedness is becoming the retro-causal casus belli. "Only a lunatic Bond villain would build missile cities. What do they expect us to believe they were to be used for? Defense?"

The Iraqi National Security Council has said that it agreed to "confront and respond to military attacks” after a series of deadly U.S. airstrikes targeting the Popular Mobilization Forces in the country. The PMF and Iranian-aligned militias have carried out a series of operations inside Iraq since the start of the war on Iran. The PMF was founded during the war against ISIS and is linked to the government. In sum this could bring the U.S. back to war with Iraq:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/24/iraq-to-summon-us-iranian-envoys-over-deadly-attacks-pms-office

Remote ~~work~~ war crimes

The nazis are doing kristallnacht

Ongoing Kristallnacht-type pogroms by the Israelis against the innocent civilians whose land they wish to steal.

https://xcancel.com/scotthortonshow/status/2035487776158745044#m

Power system restored in Cuba after outage - Prensa Latina

An Iranian security and political source told Al-Mayadeen: The enemy's attacks on our industrial, service, and vital facilities have changed our policy of 'an eye for an eye', and our next response will be completely unconventional and far more intense than our previous operations. link

⚡️ ⚡Iran destroys an additional AN/FPS-117 radar at Rafha Airport in northeastern Saudi Arabia.

Another eye poked out from the beast

https://xcancel.com/ME_Observer_/status/2036246830829252770#m

https://xcancel.com/ripplebrain/status/2036520439292277119

Extremely impressive yet highly concerning dynamics at play in the Middle East this week. An area of low pressure deepening over Iraq is accompanied by very strong wind shear and massive instability across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Oman. Thunderstorms forming in this environment have the potential to be dangerous and destructive with intense precipitation leading to flooding, large to very large hail, severe winds, and even tornadoes.

Allah has decided to end the air campaign against Iran

looking forward to the Marines getting wiped out by a typhoon as they approach the Iranian shoreline like the Mongols

After killing Shoeib, the IDF accused the reporter of being a member of Hezbollah, releasing a photo of him in military uniform.

Asked about the source of the photo, the IDF admitted "Unfortunately there isn't really a picture of it, it was photoshopped."

https://x.com/Lowkey0nline/status/2038272189523275903

Italy's Defence Minister on the consequences of the Iran war for Italy:

“I am forced to know things about what could happen in the coming week, and the effects it will have on the economy and our daily lives, that no longer allow me to sleep.”

https://xcancel.com/paolomossetti/status/2038495808929112084#m

Trump: "They were planning to have a nuclear weapon if we didn't hit them with the nuke-- with the B2 bombers."

Using nukes out of desperation while saying we had to "use nukes to prevent nukes" would be the most American thing Trump can do.

@Tervell@hexbear.net you'll be very interested in this

US Forces at Saudi Air Base Suffer Iranian Attack March 27, 2026 | By Chris Gordon

Multiple American service members were wounded and some aircraft were damaged in a March 27 Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, people familiar with the matter told Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Around 10 service members were wounded, two seriously, according to initial reports.

An Iranian missile struck the base, injuring the service members. Multiple drones were also used in the attack.

A spokesperson for U.S. Central Command declined to comment.

Multiple refueling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry AWACS command and control plane are among the aircraft damaged, according to preliminary information. A photo showed significant damage to an E-3, but the image could not be independently confirmed.

Very interesting because the US sent 6x E-3G Sentries to the Middle East. These aircraft cannot be replaced immediately or even within years, that's impossible. The US cannot send more E-3Gs without compromising readiness elsewhere, the fleet is small and production ended in 1992. The US has been dilly dallying with its replacement, the E-7 Wedgetail, even wanting to cancel it and do the whole mission from space (also impossible in the short to medium term). The US will either have to repair the damaged E-3G, or pull an older E-3 from the boneyard and upgrade it to the E-3G standard, or accept one less E-3G in service, or finally commit to the E-7 Wedgetail. All expensive choices that may take months to years to materialise, depending on the severity of the damage and if the E-3G is even repairable or not.

Very significant hit by Iran. Suggests real-time or close to real time intelligence, given a missile (most likely ballistic missile) hit the base, and that the US is dispersing the aircraft across various air bases. I've been saying the whole time that's it's not as simple as just shooting at the base, you need this intel to actually hit something and not pound sand or tarmac. Ballistic missiles have a flight time of a matter of minutes to hit time sensitive targets. If they are accurate, don't get intercepted and intel is timely and accurate, they can land hits. It's very challenging to get all that in place, but it's still possible. As shown.

It is just a little damaged, it's still good!

Trump’s approval rating on economy falls to 29% — lower than Biden’s at any point during his presidency

Lebanon orders Iran’s ambassador out, escalating a crackdown on Tehran’s influence

Ridiculous fucking title from AP, but no more than the behavior of the Lebanese "government". What's the path forward for Lebanon? I have to imagine that the Lebanese military rank and file and low level officers find the behavior of their military leaders a repulsive and humiliating betrayal of their country. If I'm not wrong on that, do we see a revolutionary military coup in the cards? In Arab countries, progressive nationalist military coups have often been the best path to revolution. Ideally, one that collaborates with Hezbollah and puts in place a new Lebanese nationalism and socialism where the state finally lines up against the zionist baby killers.

Am I naive for thinking something like this is possible? Am I overestimating how much is Happening?

Via @rainpizza@lemmygrad.ml in the lemmygrad news mega

BREAKING: Enemy media, Israeli Channel 12, says that in case of a US ground operation in Iran, Israeli soldiers will not be participating on the ground.

Source -> https://xcancel.com/kobeissiletter/status/2038405848507297796

LOL

LOL indeed @rainpizza@lemmygrad.ml, lmao even

https://xcancel.com/MikePrysner/status/2038707979881771319 executive director of the Center on Conscience & War

Just spoke with someone in an infantry platoon where he and 4 other guys want to start their conscientious objector applications. In addition we’ve gotten 6 other new CO clients today alone (and it’s still early)

Video of a successful Lebanese resistance ATGM strike on a Zionist Merkava tank along the border:

https://s1.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/tank24.mp4

Someone made $1.7 billion in bets around 5 minutes before Trump's tweet about "negotiations". Buy on S&P futures, short on oil. This is Trump's biggest stock market fraud yet. Amazing. Now he is on Fox News talking about a deal being made soon and how Hormuz will be "co-owned" (???).

Iran hasn't confirmed anything yet, the only few statements that we've seen so far are that there are no negotiations. Israel is reportedly striking Iran's infrastructure right now, Iran's broadcasting network says that US & Israel assassinated Dr. Saeed Shamghadari, a professor of electrical engineering at Iran University of Science and Technology today.

According to Iran’s government news agency IRNA, Dr. Saeed Shamghadari, a senior professor at Iran University of Science and Technology, and his children have been killed in an attack. This tragic incident occurred on Tuesday, March 23, 2026, which Iran has described as a major aggression by the American and Israeli forces. Dr. Saeed was posted as Associate Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering in the University.

Unsurprisingly, Elon lost his "Elon Musk BDS" lawsuit for Twitter/X.

Elon Musk’s lawsuit against X advertisers thrown out by US judge

Billionaire had accused brands of organising an illegal boycott

Iran hits a full tanker near Kuwait. My guess is this is a warning to Kuwait because the US invasion might come from there. Oil prices jumped up instantly by ~1.5%.

Meanwhile, Trump does a sworded version of his "jerking off two guys at once" dance. What a weirdo.

For no reason in particular, all of these strikes on Iranian universities have me thinking about all of the American universities like Columbia, Harvard, and NYU who have campuses in Israel and were heavily involved in suppressing student protests in support of Palestine.

Coindicentallty, as I was writing this comment, I discovered that some members of the IRGC may also be thinking about US university campuses, also probably for no reason in particular:

::: spoiler full article

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it may retaliate against American university campuses in the Middle East, claiming that recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged two Iranian universities.

The group said U.S.-affiliated campuses in the region could become “legitimate targets” unless Washington formally condemns the attacks on Iranian schools by noon on Monday, according to a statement first reported by Fars news agency, which is closely associated with the Guard, and picked up by other media.

The statement urged staff, faculty, students and nearby residents to keep at least one kilometer away from these campuses.

Several American universities have branches in the Persian Gulf, including Texas A&M University in Qatar and New York University in the United Arab Emirates.

Tehran was hit by strikes in the night between Friday and Saturday, including the university of science and technology in the northeast of the capital, damaging buildings but not causing any casualties, according to media reports.

Reporter: There's a report that the US is going to let a Russian oil tanker go to Cuba?

Trump: If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba, I have no problem with that.

Reporter: Do you worry that that helps Putin?

Trump: It doesn’t help him. He loses one boatload of oil. That’s all it is. It doesn’t bother me.

South Korea is going to ration energy

The government is calling on people ​to adopt 12 energy-saving practices like shorter showers, charging phones and electric vehicles during the day and using washing ​machines and vacuums over the weekend.

Optional for now.

JUST IN - Effective April 20, 2026, the U.S. Army is increasing the maximum enlistment age from 34 to 42 and eliminating waiver requirements for a single conviction of possession of marijuana.

The President is bored

Trump wants to "move on" from his war of choice. Tony Soprano would sympathize.
Elias Isquith
Mar 29, 2026

I read the news the other day — oh, boy — and came across something that’s been nagging at me ever since. It was a piece from Jake Traylor at MS NOW (née MSNBC). Trump, it seems, is bored with his war of choice:

>Trump calling the war already won is “mostly hyperbole,” said a senior White House official granted anonymity to speak candidly about the administration’s thinking. “It’s part [of Trump] just wanting to declare victory and move on.”  

>That impulse, the official said, has become more pronounced in recent days.  

“[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran,” the official said. “Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.”

A second White House official who was granted anonymity for the same reason said that Trump has begun to “move on” from the conflict and has started shifting conversations and personal focus toward the economy, domestic issues and the upcoming midterm elections.

The White House’s public communications have suggested a similar detachment, presenting the conflict less as an ongoing war with human lives at stake and more as a cultural moment that generates online content.

This is decadence beyond all comprehension. The president launched an unnecessary and legally dubious war on a whim, without seriously considering its likely consequences.

And now that this colossally stupid gambit is going as poorly as anyone with even a superficial understanding of the issue would predict, he’s decided the whole thing is just, like, y’know, so boring. So whatever. 1

source: https://www.eliasisquith.com/p/the-president-is-bored

Effective April 20, 2026, the U.S. Army is increasing the maximum enlistment age from 34 to 42 and eliminating waiver requirements for a single conviction of possession of marijuana.

The US Air Force is deploying 18x A-10C aircraft for close air support to the Middle East for close air support for whatever ground operations thry have planned in Iran.

Source on flight tracking

This is really going to happen, isn't it?

https://xcancel.com/EFFERCETAMOL/status/2035961644770377791

The Vietnamese national flag flying over the PLAN frigate Hengyang (568) during a joint live fire exercise. If 10 years ago you said this would happen, you'd be laughed at in both countries. Crazy times.

Ah here we go, as expected. Another declaration of victory. That makes at least 10 so far?

Market is already rallying, especially the US treasury market. But nothing huge like in the past. This should be good for another ~24 hours, I guess.

Trump: “They (Iran) gave us a present and the present arrived today. It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I’m not going to tell you what that present is but it was a very significant prize and they gave it to us.”

https://xcancel.com/QBCCIntegrity/status/2037145536109961486

China has cut Australia off for Jet A1 fuel (kerosene), all of next months shipments cancelled. Normally 12/month. There’s one ship inbound. That’s it. China is Australia’s largest Jet Fuel supplier.

How much jet fuel does Australia have in emergency stores? I'm guessing China has cancelled the shipments to prioritise their own requirements

A few weeks.

🚨 BREAKING: Iran speaker named in Axios report says “no negotiations” taking place with U.S. in fresh posts

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – identified in Axios reporting as a key figure in alleged backchannel talks – said moments ago on X that “no negotiations with America have taken place,” directly contradicting President Donald Trump.

🔸 Axios reported an Israeli official said Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were engaging with Ghalibaf, with mediators exploring a possible meeting in Islamabad

🔸 Trump said talks occurred on Sunday and would continue “probably by phone,” with a potential in-person meeting later

🔸 Ghalibaf wrote: “No negotiations with America have taken place. Fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which America and Israel are trapped.”

🔸 He added: “Our people demand the complete and humiliating punishment of the aggressors”

🔸 “All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved,” he said

I have been noticing that Maduro's son, Nicolás "Nicolasito" Maduro, have been making a lot of media apperances recent, I wonder if PSUV wants to test his popularity to see if he can be elect president in the future. That would be pretty ironic considering that they removed Khamenei to get him replaced with Khamenei, imagine if Venezuela elects Maduro's son to the presidency, replacing Maduro with Maduro.

Alright newscomm, the rule is no AI slop. Are we going to make an exception for based Iranian AI slop? For example this or those Iranian lego videos? It's all AI slop to me, but I'd like to hear from the crowd.