Is USA really going to leave Iran, or is it just Strategy to buy more time? (www.reuters.com)

submitted 1 day ago by BharatiyaReformist@lemmy.ml to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/45499964

Recently, Donald Trump has been saying that they are going to stop attacks on Iran very soon saying that Tehran has the "Will" for ceasefire. But does USA really plan to leave Iran? Iran on the other hand has been saying that USA is negotiating with itself.

Do you really think USA will leave Iran? Not at all, because if they do it now, mark my words, 'Iran will make Nuclear Weapons within a year'. This invasion has given them them not just the political will but also the resources required to do so, as we are seeing a new alliance nexus in building i.e North Korea, Iran, China and Russia. Iran now has a justifiable reason to make Nuclear bombs and legitimise them.

And this is exactly why USA cannot leave now. They cannot afford a nuclear powered Iran and hence this ceasefire tactics seems no more than a method to buy some time for ground invasion.

The toughest part for USA will be 'Iranian Terrain and its blessed Geography'. This is exactly why US's Operation Eagle Claw failed. I may hate US for its lack of morality at times, but what I absolutely admire about it is its ability to learn from its mistakes. Its hard to believe that after that failed operation USA would have sat idly. They must have learned about Iranian Geography and what systems will be most suitable against them, and if that is so, this will be a major problem for Iran if USA plans ground invasion. USA's all time friend Israel too has declared that they will not deploy troops in Iran in case of any ground invasion, which I had anticipated because Israel's priorities are set. They want Lebanon, and once USA is engaged in Iran, Israel will let its army loose on Lebanon, hence taking a big chunk of Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah.

If USA really goes foots on the ground in Iran, no matter how harsh it sounds, but in current world order, no country stands near USA in raw power, USA will eventually emerge victorious and if that happens, Russia can simply annex Ukraine as it will then have a legitimate reason. Can be called a silent deal between two. If the war is too prolonged, China can eventually seize the opportunity and invade Taiwan, which might not get US support as it would be engaged in Iran and at the same time. That would be the perfect time for India as well to take all of Kashmir from Pakistan and China, India can easily overpower Pakistan and China will never engage on a two front war, it will obviously choose Taiwan over Aksai Chin as Taiwan is the means for CPC to legitimise itself. We can say, it will be like a silent deal between major powers, ofcourse only if USA does a ground invasion.

What do you think? Let me know. Join "BharatDefense", we discuss this in even more detail there.

Jai Hind

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[-] yogthos@lemmy.ml 4 points 11 hours ago

I expect that the US will continue to escalate. Leaving Iran will be seen as a massive strategic defeat, and it will show all the vassals that the US is no longer an unchallenged global military power. It would also mean that the US influence in West Asia would collapse, and with it so will the petrodollar. Iran is already forcing trade to shift to yuan now.

All that said, I can't see any way the US could actually defeat Iran. So, further escalation simply means further destruction of the region, and depletion of the remaining American resources. The longer the war goes, the worse off the US will be in the end. On top of it all, there's also the global economic crisis that stems from the war, and it's predominantly hitting US allies in Europe, occupied Korea, and Japan. As their economies start crashing, they will pull the US down with them.

[-] plz1@lemmy.world 1 points 10 hours ago

The US doesn't "bring freedom" and then leave after.

[-] SoloCritical@lemmy.world 24 points 21 hours ago

Judging by this, I’m gonna say he ain’t ready to leave just yet.

[-] dermanus@lemmy.ca 7 points 20 hours ago

Hey, you can't hold him responsible for things he doesn't remember saying! /s

[-] fizzle@quokk.au 6 points 21 hours ago

Grandpa sundowner has no idea what hes planning.

[-] marxismtomorrow@lemmy.today 24 points 23 hours ago

The US cannot win a ground war in Iran.

It's not Afghanistan, it's not Iraq.

It isn't a 'regime.' It doesn't have an unpopular government. It isn't a disparate group of farming communities the British made into a government a hundred years ago.

It's a decentralized theocratic republic older than pale skin has been in human evolution that, for the last 60 years, has trained and planned for every variation of Israeli and American invasion.

There is no head to cut off. There is no structure to destroy. There is no entity to fall.

You would need to kill all 90 million people, over 40 million of which have been militarily trained and are currently armed, over 60 million of them educated to a college level or higher, all of whom have explicit plans or are in familial contact with those that have explicit plans on how to defend their local territory.

Yes, the US could carpet bomb for a few weeks, but US munition stores are already so low Korea lost all its missile defense and Ukraine is about to lose all US support. Hell Israel cannot keep itself defended and Israel is the US's number one global defense priority.

The US has no manufacturing base and has no money to spend for munitions. Without that they can maybe sustain another few months of fighting, maybe 6 weeks total if they go boots on the ground.

That is 6 weeks to kill or subdue 40 million people who have been raised and trained specifically to resist US and Israeli invasion and intervention in their lives.

Even in the wettest dreams of the most delusional zionist that would be simply an impossibility.

There is no scenario from this day forward where the Amerisraeli Empire benefits from any action it takes, and there is no world where Iran falls to the Amerisraeli Empire.

The absolute best case scenario is the US pulls out today, concentrates all naval power on Israel's defense, and prays they haven't pissed off the wrong part of Iran's decentralized military and Iran doesn't destroy desalination plants.

Maybe in ten, twenty years of at least 50% GDP going to manufacturing the US would be ready for proper invasion.

[-] belastend@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 16 hours ago

I agree with you that The US won't win this war, given the insane geography of Iran and the parallel structures of government and control installed by the state, but the narrative of an ancient theocratic state is not true. The IRI is less than 60 years old and it had to purge their left wing co-revolutionaries in order to actually solidify their hold on the country.

Like, you make Iran seem like a hive mind of anti imperialist soldiers, when in reality, they are humans like us. Iran is also not unified. Not only are there people of different political opinions and attitudes towards the government, there are many different ethnicities, not all of them seeing themselves as Iranians.

[-] mrdown@lemmy.world 8 points 22 hours ago

But trump is dumb and could still do it

[-] marxismtomorrow@lemmy.today 4 points 21 hours ago

He could try, and fail, and show the world the US has no hard power to back up their soft power since they've destroyed their own manufacturing.

Which would be good for the world, don't get me wrong, but the likely military coup in the US to stop the losses could be devastating if the wrong general gets into power and decides being right is more important than survival and actually uses nukes.

[-] comrade_twisty@feddit.org 21 points 1 day ago

Why does anyone think the toddler in charge has a strategy?

[-] wheezy@lemmy.ml 12 points 23 hours ago

Why do people think the toddler in charge is not just being directed by his handlers?

Part of me thinks they have him talking to these new "non extremist" leaders of Iran to keep him happy. They just have some fake negotiations for him to do while they setup their invasion plans. Dude, is clearly having signs of dementia, having health problems, and talking about how he won't get into heaven. I wouldn't doubt he's not just being directed by war capital and Christian Zionist promising him he's doing the work of God of something.

But its not a bunch of people just doing whatever the old idiot says. It's a bunch of people directing him for their own self interest and profit. Which is primarily aligned with US war profits, Christian Zionist, and Israel. It's why what he says doesn't make any sense. It doesn't have to. It just has to go in the direction that is profitable for a few at the expense of the rest of the world.

[-] BharatiyaReformist@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 day ago

I mean man he may act dumb but that does not mean he necesarrily is one. The real point is, wheather the toddler is ready to pay the price of Invading Iran, which will be all of its competing major powers landing in a better position.

[-] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago

Russia can simply annex Ukraine.

Wtf? Russia has been trying and failing for YEARS.

[-] AntiOutsideAktion@lemmy.ml 2 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

Genuinely upset at western propaganda for breaking the brains of these dead enders so completely that nothing in the outside world can penetrate. The fact that you can still believe the myths and narratives from when they were actually putting money into it all the way out to now. You've gone from cope to cult.

Do you also believe Trump was a white hat pedophile trying to take down the Epstein ring?

[-] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 1 points 14 minutes ago

It's Western Propaganda that Ukraine hasn't been defeated by Russia? Wtf copium are you on?

Trump is a pedophile who betrayed Ukraine. That was clear 10 years ago when he tried to blackmail Ukraine.

[-] BharatiyaReformist@lemmy.ml 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Do you really think Russia is failing, and even if it is, if USA launches a boots on the ground operation Iran, the resources would definitely shift from Ukraine to Iran where USA is directly engaged, and when this significant aid is stopped, Russia will definitely get an upper hand.

[-] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 0 points 12 hours ago

Do you really think Russia is failing,

4 years into a 3 day special military operation to annex. Yes Russia has failed.

the resources would definitely shift from Ukraine

Trump has already abandoned Ukraine and the EU has filled in.

[-] BharatiyaReformist@lemmy.ml 1 points 18 minutes ago* (last edited 16 minutes ago)

You didn't get what I meant, lemme explain. See the world map and you will notice, in the east, Japan and South Korea have presence of US military, In the West (around central west more accurately), Turkey is a part of the NATO alliance and so is Poland in the West of Ukraine which also borders it. Now imagine how a country would feel being sorrounded by its worst enemy from all the sides, this would have had definitely become the case if Ukraine joined NATO if its biggest enemy, it is totally unacceptable and this is the exact reason of Russian aggression towards Ukraine. The thing is, Russia is deliberately not trying to end or win this war. If Russia captures all of Ukraine, then Poland and Romania will become its immediate neighbours who are already a part of the NATO. The problem would still remain the same. If Russia stops the war then Ukraine will immediately join NATO which it is not able to do now as NATO does not makes countries already engaged in war a part of it. The goal is to keep NATO away from immediate Russian neigborhood.

The best thing Russia can do is prolong the war to the extent which Ukraine cannot afford it, establish a puppet goverenment and leave, Ukraine in such a case would work as a wall between Russia and NATO.

[-] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 1 points 4 minutes ago

There was a time when Russia considered joining NATO.

it is totally unacceptable and this is the exact reason of Russian aggression towards Ukraine.

If Ukraine wanted to ally with another country, that's their right. If Russia treated them better they'd choose Russia over the EU. Just like countries are choosing China over the US.

If you think Russia invading Ukraine is fine because it is in Russia's economic interests then you must also believe the US blockading Cuba and attacking Venezuela is also fine.

[-] Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world 2 points 18 hours ago

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now in its 5th year with Russian army just a few KM from where they started in 2022. It is pretty clear that Russia has already failed in Ukraine.

Now Russia has started calling in universities to start forcing the bottom 2% of college students to sign up for the army as drone operators in a sure sign that Russia is struggling to get the required numbers to sign up to die for mother Russia.

Russia has been on the back foot and losing territory for 2 months now, I would be surprised to see Russia come back from this shift in momentum now. I think the Iran war will not be a big enough distraction to steady the ship for Russia.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 13 hours ago

It is pretty clear that you don't understand Russia's aims in Ukraine.

It's not Russia that is dragging men off the streets into unmarked vans to force them into trenches at the front.

Russia has in fact advanced over the last 2 months and continues to advance. Everything you wrote is pure projection.

[-] IronBird@lemmy.world 1 points 16 hours ago

.ml lemmy's really are different breed...

i havent been keeping track the Ukraine war all that much, i vaguely recall that the EU actually provides most of their material support now and that the US was more financial support? vould be wrong though

[-] Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 0 points 12 hours ago

.ml lemmy's really are different breed

It's become clear over the past several years that many ml users aren't pro communism or against the US. They are only pro Russia/China.

They want Ukraine to fall to Russia even if the US isn't involved.

[-] zealouscurmedgeon@lemmy.ml 1 points 17 hours ago

I think that depends a lot on what victory means. The original intent appeared to be to bring Ukraine back into Russia's sphere of influence which doesn't seem to be near the case. However, Putin could still keep Eastern Ukraine and cause enough internal unrest to keep it out of the EU and NATO.

[-] wheezy@lemmy.ml 4 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

Yep, more money to be made in a war the US is funding and fighting in directly than in some proxy war. Ukraine will get betrayed by the US again and be put in an even worse position than it ever has been.

[-] greyscale@lemmy.grey.ooo 3 points 22 hours ago

If Iran goes hot-er do you think Iran is gonna send Russia any more drones?

They're (a russian billionare atleast was) talking about instituting 12 day workdays in russia. Its not looking good.

[-] cfgaussian@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 13 hours ago

Iran hasn't been sending Russia drones for years. Russia produces more drones than Iran ever did, and more advanced. It is in fact the opposite: Russia has been sending Iran drones and other military equipment.