This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
Hopefully Iran uses this ceasefire, however long it lasts, to make a sprint to the bomb. I don’t think anything can truly offer sufficient deterrence other than a verified nuclear weapons test. I have no idea how quickly they can manage that, however.
Start a war, get your military assets tanked, block a vital shipping route, free said shipping route by making a deal and you now have to pay for it, potentially lose all your influence in the region
Monumental victory really
Accelerationists didn't even have to do anything. Capitalism accelerated its own collapse.
Also, aim for regime change by killing their leader only to replace him with his son
From Sony Thang:
The USA gave their citizens the world's most effective psychological defense mechanism:
The idea that American violence is always a response.
They never start it.
They were attacked at Pearl Harbor.
They were threatened by WMDs.
They were defending South Vietnam from Northern aggression.
They were protecting the region from Iranian influence.
They were responding to terrorism.
Always responding. Always defensive. Always reluctant warriors pushed into conflict by the aggression of others.
Never the ones who set the conditions.
Never the ones who funded the earlier coup.
Never the ones who imposed the embargo that created the desperation.
Never the first cause.
Always the response.
This story is a masterpiece of construction.
And it is completely false.
Thanks, I shared this in a Trump group on another website ;)
12 'likes' 1 'haha' 1 'dislike'
So I woke up to a ceasefire. Absolute loss of face for the US. But also, is Iran still attacking?
I belive Israel Immediately violated it by attacking Lebanon [and maybe palistine unclear if they fall into that provision] (point 10)
Apparently Israel isn't part of the deal which is why they keep getting attacked?
Israel is part of the deal and Lebanon is also explicitly named. Bibi has said that they will not observe any ceasefire with Lebanon and therein we have an immediate contradiction. I suspect that Iran knows this deal will not hold, but accepted in order to appease China who stepped in as a guarantor. When this fails, it cannot be said that Iran didn't once again attempt to negotiate.
According to Pakistan it is the US, Iran and Allies, and point 1. is that the US Must ensure that none of there allies commit farther acts of agression
Translation (fa ➜ en) By maintaining anger against the enemy who is the killer of our leader and people, and with patience until some questions are resolved; I write my understanding:
We are in a multi-stage war. The first stage was the 12-day war, which did not achieve the desired result. The project after that was the activation of the trigger mechanism and later the killing project of 18 to 20 December to be the apparent cause of the Ramadan war. This war will have another stage. Its time and type depends on the deterrence status of both sides in the current war. This statement cannot mean the end of the war without considering the objective fulfillment of the conditions. In fact, the statement of the secretariat itself acknowledges this issue.
Undoubtedly, the first and main goal of the enemy was not achieved. The main goal was to change the political system. America's analysis and Israel's insistence was that with the assassination of the leader of the revolution, the system will collapse and the great achievement and dream of 47 years will become a reality. The great blow to our body was the leader's martyrdom, but the final result did not end with the fall of the Islamic system. This is undoubtedly an authoritative, epic and oppressed victory. Wishing for Pahlavi graves and separatist ill-wishers did not achieve results even with all the military power of the West.
The mentioned ten paragraphs were also mentioned in yesterday's statement. These ten paragraphs are the framework and provisions of the final plan. It does not seem that all ten clauses are accepted. In diplomacy, the maximum demand should be expressed and the framework should be defined before agreement. In the next two weeks, they should reach a long-term agreement based on these ten points [which are mainly in favor of Iran]. But the problem is, what is the guarantee? Experience has shown that America does not guarantee. Unless our strategic tools, namely the management of the Strait of Hormuz and the effective threat in other fields, are accepted or maintained. On the other hand, there may be a framework from other countries such as China for guarantee, which should be viewed with doubt despite the bad faith of America.
The Arab countries of the region are the biggest victims of this war if they accept the clause related to the withdrawal of America from the region. After the withdrawal of the US from the region, which the leader of the martyr Soleimani proposed as a strategy after the martyrdom of the martyr, a new order will prevail between the countries of the region, whose axis is with Iran.
The axis of resistance, which had suffered serious injuries in the last two years, gained self-confidence and revival with this war. At the same time, this axis should be strengthened, and no commitment is acceptable.
From the point of view of both sides, the existential war turned into a regional war that America did not expect. The existential war does not end with agreement or non-agreement. It is gradual and long. In the meeting with the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, the Martyr Leader said: This war will lead to the death of the right or wrong front. There is no end to the existential war.
The most accurate and complete nobility on the field and politics scene is with the leader of the revolution. Like the 12-day war experience, we should wait for the message of the leader of the revolution so that he can clearly define the dimensions for the future.
The main narrative of this war should not be forgotten: you people and the armed forces, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei, stood against the entire Western world. You have won this stage. The conflict continues in other layers. Seditions will be formed and its planning will be realized with the tact of the leadership and the re-envoy of the people. In no way should there be a narrative of passivity.
The greatness of what you have done should not be tarnished. We should not return to the pre-war situation. This phase of the war should be the platform for the great move for the Islamic Republic of Iran. You should avoid hasty and definitive comments. why Because the details have not been determined, such as what will be the status of 60% uranium and the management status of the Strait of Hormuz, etc., there are many. We do not know these basic things.
Alireza Zadbar
Original text:
spoiler
با حفظ خشم از دشمنی که قاتل رهبر و مردم ماست و حلم تا رفع برخی سوالات؛ فهم خودم را می نویسم:
۱. ما در جنگ چند مرحله ای هستیم. مرحله نخست آن جنگ ۱۲ روزه بود که به نتیجه مطلوب دست نیافت. پروژه پس از آن، فعال سازی مکانیسم ماشه و بعدتر پروژه کشتار ۱۸ تا ۲۰ دی بود تا علت ظاهری جنگ رمضان باشد. این جنگ مرحله دیگری خواهد داشت. زمان و نوع آن بستگی به وضعیت بازدارندگی دو طرف در جنگ فعلی دارد. این بیانیه نمیتواند به معنای پایان جنگ بدون در نظر گرفتن تحقق عینی شروط باشد. کما اینکه خود بیانیه دبیرخانه به این مساله اذعان دارد.
۲. بدون شک هدف اول و اصلی دشمن محقق نشد. هدف اصلی تغییر نظام سیاسی بود. تحلیل آمریکا و اصرار اسرائیل این بود که با ترور رهبر انقلاب، نظام فرو می پاشد و دستاورد بزرگ و آرزوی ۴۷ ساله به واقعیت می پیوندند. ضربه بزرگ بر پیکره ما شهادت رهبر بود اما نتیجه نهایی آن به سقوط نظام اسلامی ختم نشد. این بدون شک یک پیروزی مقتدارانه، حماسی و مظلومانه است. آرزو به گورهای پهلوی و بدخواهان تجزیه طلب با تمام توان نظامی غرب هم به نتیجه نرسیدند.
۳. ده بند اشاره شده، در بیانیه روز گذشته نیز آمده بود. این ده بند چارچوب و مفاد طرح نهایی است. به نظر نمیرسد که هر ده بند پذیرفته شود. در دیپلماسی باید حداکثر خواسته بیان و پیش از توافق چارچوب مشخص شود. در دو هفته آینده مبتنی بر این ده بند[که عمدتا به نفع ایران است] می بایست به توافق بلند مدت برسند. اما مساله این است که تضمین و ضمانت نامه چیست؟ تجربه نشان داده است که آمریکا ضمانت نمیدهد. مگر اینکه ابزارهای استراتژیک ما یعنی مدیریت تنگه هرمز و تهدید موثر در سایر زمینه پذیرفته و یا حفظ شود. از طرف دیگر شاید چارچوبی از طرف سایر کشورها نظیر چین برای ضمانت وجود داشته باشد که با وجود بد عهدی آمریکا به این گزینه نیز به تردید باید نگریست.
۴. بزرگترین قربانیان بی اختیار این جنگ در صورت پذیرش بند مربوط به ترک و خروج آمریکا از منطقه، کشورهای عربی منطقه هستند. پس از خروج آمریکا از منطقه که رهبر شهید پس از شهادت شهید سلیمانی آن را بعنوان راهبرد مطرح کردند، نظم جدیدی را بین کشورهای منطقه حاکم خواهد نمود که محور آن با ایران است.
۵. محور مقاومت که در دو سال گذشته آسیب های جدی متحمل شده بود با این جنگ به خودباوری و احیا مجدد دست یافت. به موازات باید این محور تقویت شود و هیچ تعهد و بندی نسبت به آن قابل قبول نیست.
۶. جنگ موجودیتی از نگاه دو طرف به جنگ منطقه ای تبدیل شد که آمریکا انتظار نداشت. جنگ موجودیتی با توافق و یا عدم توافق پایان نمی یابد. مرحله ای و طولانی است. رهبر شهید در دیدار رئیس مجلس لبنان با اشاره به طوفان الاقصی گفتند: این جنگ منجر به مرگ جبهه حق یا باطل خواهد شد. جنگ موجودیتی تمامی ندارد.
۷. دقیق ترین و اشراف کامل بر صحنه میدان و سیاست با رهبر انقلاب است. مانند الگو تجربه شده جنگ ۱۲ روزه باید منتظر پیام رهبر انقلاب بود تا ایشان ابعاد را متقن و قطعی ناظر به آینده مشخص نمایند.
۸. روایت اصلی این جنگ فراموش نشود: شما مردم و نیروهای مسلح با رهبری آیت الله خامنه ای مقابل تمام جهان غرب ایستادید. این مرحله را پیروز شدید. نزاع در لایه های دیگر ادامه دارد. فتنه ها شکل خواهد گرفت و تدبیر آن با درایت رهبری و مبعوث شدن مجدد مردم محقق میشود. به هیچ وجه نباید روایت انفعال داشت. عظمت کاری که انجام دادید نباید خدشه دار شود. نباید به وضعیت پیش از جنگ بازگردیم. این مرحله از جنگ باید سکوی حرکت بزرگ برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران باشد. از اظهارنظر عجولانه و قطعی باید پرهیز کرد. چرا؟ چون جزییات معین نشده نظیر اینکه وضعیت اورانیوم ۶۰ درصد چه خواهد شد و وضعیت مدیریت تنگه هرمز و.... بسیار است. ما از این موارد اساسی اطلاع نداریم.
#علیرضا_زادبر
The translation appears to be a bit off, but from what i can tell this analysis is essentially correct.
I will add the Original text so another comrade that is knowledgeable on Farsi may step in and fix any mistranslation!
💠 Statement of the Supreme National Security Council
In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
🔹 To the honorable, great, and heroic nation of Iran:
🔹 The enemy, in its unfair, illegal, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat. Thanks to the pure and sacred blood of the martyred leader of the Islamic Revolution, Grand Ayatollah Imam Khamenei (may God bless him), the measures of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei (may God protect him), and the efforts and bravery of the Islamic fighters on the fronts, especially the historic, lasting, and heroic presence of you dear people from the very first days of the war, Iran has achieved a great victory and forced the criminal America to accept its 10-point plan. In this plan, America fundamentally commits to non-aggression, continued control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, acceptance of enrichment, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, ending all Security Council and Board of Governors resolutions, paying compensation to Iran, withdrawing American combat forces from the region, and stopping the war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic resistance of Lebanon. We congratulate all the people of Iran on this victory and emphasize that until the details of this victory are finalized, there is still a need for the perseverance and prudence of officials and the preservation of unity and solidarity among the Iranian people.
🔹 The Islamic Republic of Iran, along with the brave resistance fighters in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine, has inflicted blows on the enemy in the past 40 days that the historical memory of the world will never forget. Iran and the resistance axis, as representatives of honor and humanity against the most savage enemies of mankind, after a historic battle, have given them an unforgettable lesson and have crushed their forces, facilities, infrastructure, and all their political, economic, technological, and military capital so thoroughly that the enemy is now in decline and despair and sees no way but to surrender to the will of the great Iranian nation and the honorable resistance axis. On the first day the criminal enemies of Iran started this unjust war, they thought they would quickly achieve full military control over Iran and, by creating political and social instability, force Iran to surrender. They believed that Iran’s missile and drone fire would quickly be extinguished and did not believe that Iran could respond so powerfully beyond its borders and across the entire region. The global malicious Zionism had convinced the foolish American president that this war would finish Iran off and that they could, by eliminating this last bastion of humanity and humaneness, henceforth commit any crime against anyone they wished with ease. They dreamed of partitioning dear Iran, plundering its oil and wealth, and finally leaving Iranians immersed and abandoned in chaos, instability, and insecurity for many years.
🔹 The brave Islamic fighters and their courageous allies in the resistance axis, despite their hearts being wounded and shattered by the martyrdom of their Imam, relying on Almighty God and following the example of the master and leader of martyrs, decided once and for all to give these enemies a historic lesson, avenge all previous crimes, and create conditions so that the enemy forever abandons any thought of aggression against dear Iran and fully tastes humiliation and disgrace before the great Iranian nation.
🔹 With this strategy and relying on the unprecedented political and social unity created in the country, Iran and the resistance began one of the heaviest combined battles in history against America and the Zionist regime and have achieved all the goals they designed for this battle. Iran and the resistance have almost completely destroyed America’s military machine in the region, dealt crushing and deep blows to the vast infrastructure and facilities the enemy had built and deployed over the years for this war with Iran in the region, inflicted heavy regional casualties on the criminal American army, delivered severe and crushing blows to enemy forces, infrastructure, facilities, and assets within the occupied territories, and pressured the enemy on all fronts so much that not only were none of the enemy’s main objectives achieved, but about 10 days after the war began, the enemy realized it had no chance of victory and therefore started trying to communicate with Iran and request a ceasefire through various channels and methods.
I just cant deal lately. I have fucked up dreams of evil entities flying in on black horses from the sky. Bodies falling from skyscrapers 10x that of 9/11. I wake up randomly throughout the night and cry periodically every few weeks. Such evil in our country. I feel so trapped sometimes in this hell we’ve grown aware of. Im tired yall.
Just know that you're not alone in seeing it. More are waking up, and faster. We can support each other. We can create space for each other to rest.
🇮🇷🇦🇪| The Habshan gas field in the UAE has been hit by an Iranian ballistic missile.
The facility is on fire.
Now: Iranian missiles are pounding Tel Aviv!!
https://t.me/naya_foriraq/70762.
https://t.me/naya_foriraq/70763.
https://t.me/naya_foriraq/70769.
I honestly think this ceasefire will be dead in the water because Israel can't help itself from killing Arabs.
If anything it might just look like the US leaving Israel to deal with the mess, while the GCC quietly thank Allah that the removal the the US means no more missiles on them.
Though, I'm still not sure the US is willing to cut itself from the zionist entity.
The final salve before the ceasefire goes into effect huh?
I hope Iran doesn't let up. Until there is a guarantee from the imperialists (don't know how those ghouls would ever pull that off, they have no moral credibility) that they will honor a ceasefire. Probably the only guaranteed way is to kick the US entirely out of the region, and delegitimize the Zionist regime.
I'm seeing reports that Netanyahu is refusing to acknowledge the ceasefire with regard to Lebanon so Iran's resolve may be tested here. Probably straight back to firing missiles at Tel Aviv and blocking the strait. At least I hope so.
I'm not sure there's even a cease fire with the colonists.
LOL
🇺🇸🇮🇷| Trump attacks CNN after they aired the full statement of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which said Iran had achieved a "great victory" and forced the US to accept its 10-point plan.
He called the network a fraud and said he would sue them.
Oh, he's going to crusade against CNN imperialist news now lol As if his plate wasn't already full with his own ass, as it got handed to him by Iran lol
no way this man posted the statement by Iran's SNSC, and still called it a fraud! A certified orange man classic at this point! 😆
A Saudi source told the British Times: We fear that Trump might suddenly tire of the conflict, as he did with the Houthis, when he threatened to annihilate them but then declared victory, while the group remained intact.
Lmao. Eat shit, wahabists!
That "if" has a lot hanging on it.
Notice how they say "Safe" passage not "free"
Iran shorted the market before announcing that trump agreed to negotiate on their 10 point plan.
🇮🇷🇺🇸| ❗️Iran’s SNSC (security council) in a statement said
Iran defeated the enemy in the war, and forced the US to accept a 10-point plan, with secured commitments including:
• No further aggression (including against Iranian allies)
• Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Acceptance of enrichment.
• Removal of all sanctions.
• Cancellation of UN resolutions.
• Compensation.
• US military withdrawal from the region.
• and a halt to fighting on all fronts.
This is according to the statement by the SNSC.
I made the mistake of reading the comments section. I swear everytime there's a "ceasefire agreement" (this again wasn't one but that's besides the point), the comments section is filled with doomers talking as if they know better than Iranian officials.
This was a very historic defeat for the empire. I'm sure the war isn't over, as Iran has previously said they will continue fighting until the empire is removed entirely from West Asia.
the comments section is filled with doomers talking as if they know better than Iranian officials.
Jeje, yeah, sadly it is common. However, don't mind them because there are comrades actively fighting those doomers in that specific resistance chat. Also, I speculate some of those doomers might be Mossad agents trying to demoralize resistance. Sadly, that chat has and still is suffering zionist/fascist/wahabist infiltrations.
Still gotta be on alert for a surprise attack
Damn talk about a huge W if true. I don't trust the US or Zionists to abide by that for even 1 second though, but either way it's a W for Iran
The whiplash of this after Trump's vaguetweeting threats. Hard to believe the Zionist entity will actually hold to a ceasefire, with how often it violates ceasefires with other places in the region.
Also wondering what this means in practice:
No further aggression (including against Iranian allies)
Like who counts as an official ally of Iran in this plan. Because places like Lebanon and Palestine really need the help, not the Zionist entity shifting its aggression mainly toward them again.
Iran explicitly mentioned Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine.
I think Palestine is included. As for Lebanon, it is explicitly mentioned by Pakistan's rep.
That's good to hear, thanks. Hoping for the best for the region. 🙏
US military withdrawal from the region.
Considering it's the us they're dealing with I hope they don't stop firing until everyone is gone, and it would be nice if this this would include the colonists departure too, as they can be considered us military.
❗️Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (1/2) & (2/2):
Full Text
"The noble Iranian people must know that, thanks to the sacrifices of their sons and their historic presence on the battlefield, the enemy has, for over a month, been pleading for a halt to the intense fire launched by Iran and the Axis of Resistance. However, the country’s officials—based on a decision taken from the outset to continue the war until its objectives are achieved, including forcing the enemy into regret, incapacity, and the removal of long-term threats to the country—have rejected all such requests. The war has continued up to today, the fortieth day. Iran has also repeatedly rejected warnings issued by the President of the United States and continues to affirm that it gives no importance to such threats from the enemy.
Now, we bring good news to the great Iranian people: most of the war’s objectives have nearly been achieved, and your brave sons have brought the enemy to a historic incapacity and lasting defeat. Iran’s historic decision, backed by popular consensus, is to continue this battle—whatever the cost—until its major gains are secured and new security and political equations are imposed in the region based on recognition of the strength and sovereignty of Iran and the Axis of Resistance.
In this context, and in accordance with the directives of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, and with the approval of the Supreme National Security Council, and in light of Iran and the Axis of Resistance’s superiority on the ground and the enemy’s inability to carry out its threats despite its claims—and its formal acceptance of all the Iranian people’s demands—it has been decided to hold negotiations in Islamabad to finalize the details. Within a maximum of 15 days, Iran’s battlefield victory is to be politically consolidated as well.
Accordingly, after rejecting all proposals submitted by the enemy, Iran has prepared a 10-point plan and presented it to the American side via Pakistan. The plan includes key points such as: regulated passage through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Iranian armed forces to enhance Iran’s economic and geopolitical standing; ending the war against all components of the Axis of Resistance; withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases in the region; establishing a secure navigation protocol in the Strait of Hormuz ensuring Iran’s control under agreement; full payment of compensation to Iran; lifting all primary and secondary sanctions as well as UN and IAEA measures; release of all frozen Iranian assets abroad; and enshrining all of this in a binding UN Security Council resolution. The adoption of such a resolution would turn these understandings into binding international law and represent a major diplomatic victory for the Iranian people.
The Prime Minister of Pakistan has informed Iran that the American side, despite its public threats, has accepted these principles as a basis for negotiations and yielded to the will of the Iranian people. Accordingly, it has been decided at the highest level that Iran will enter negotiations for only two weeks, based on these principles, in Islamabad with the American side. It is emphasized that this does not mean the end of the war, as Iran will not accept its conclusion until the details of these principles are secured through negotiations.
https://t.me/thecradlemedia/56982
"These talks will begin, with complete distrust toward the American side, on Friday, 21 Farvardin, in Islamabad. They are set for two weeks, with the possibility of extension by mutual agreement. During this period, it is essential to maintain full national unity and continue celebrations of victory. The current negotiations are national negotiations and an extension of the battlefield, and all segments of society, elites, and political currents must support this path under the supervision of the leadership and avoid any divisive statements. If the enemy’s surrender on the battlefield is transformed into a decisive political achievement in negotiations, we will celebrate this great historic victory together. Otherwise, we will continue the fight side by side until all the demands of the Iranian people are achieved.
Our hands remain on the trigger, and any small mistake by the enemy will be met with full force."
Fuck me. I want to believe this will mean the war will be over soon but I doubt it. Trump will be making angry tweets in a couple hours.
Enemy notification: Immediately after President Trump's announcement, the Israeli army detected gunfire directed towards Israel from Iran.